Going to probably transfer this account to a more science/weather oriented account with gaming as just a side thing, currently I’ve been more focused on that and school as of late plus I have a burning passion for it.

Second of all, its able to then relay this data into the models for them to be able to make much more accurate track and intensity initializations/forecasts.

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The current structure of #Erin proves why recon flights into TCs are so important. First of all, despite pressure not falling and no inner core immediately forming, an upshear vortex precession attempt has occurred.

Important to remember that tropical storm #Erin will be far from the last hurricane risk the atlantic has to deal with over the next couple of weeks. Despite a wavebreak over the northeastern atlantic and Erin's northerly outflow, more waves are likely to form from MJO+CCKW.

For interests in the United States, would keep a keen eye on the progress of this system and the evolution of the forecast, however currently there is nothing to worry about for at least 3 more days.

For interests in the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the rest of the Greater Antilles, I wouldn't worry too much yet about a direct landfall, however especially in the Lesser Antilles, beginning hurricane preparations just in case of further south shifts is likely a wise idea.

This will likely impart strong directional shear on the circulation for at least a day or two before track uncertainty increases considerably, and at least presumably right now the ULAC looks to maybe realign (although this is even not certain at days 6+).

Days 1-4 seem generally favorable for development as a large ULAC will continue to overspread Erin in the upper levels while it tracks over gradually increasing SST. By day 5 however, things change considerably, as the storm gets a glancing blow of NW UL flow from a wavebreak.

As far as Erin's forecast goes, it's about as good as it ever really gets for a very strong, long lived, ACE farming hurricane in the atlantic over the next week+, however I would be lying if I said that its forecast for exact intensity, track, etc was even close to clear cut.

Tropical storm #Erin and hurricane #Iona are both examples of just how essential a good subseasonal pattern for tropical development is (even more so than the SST pattern for a basin in any given year). Sometimes it just doesn't truly matter how poor the large scale is.

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Upshear wrapping attempts haven't quite begun yet as the circulation isn't vertically stacked throughout the lower troposphere, however all it will take to initiate a Rule F fashion of RI here is a large burst that stacks the circulation with height.

TS #16W is maturing gradually as it heads northwestwards in the open Western Pacific. The time at which it turns westwards is largely dependent on how robust it is compared to model simulations. At least right now, its for sure on the stronger side of the guidance at ~45kt.

Important to remember with systems like #98W that major track and intensity errors will be quite likely as models fail to handle the small scale convective evolution and its impacts on the large scale pattern. Usually if stronger, track will be more SW than expected.

Currently ACE to date is running considerably below average in the NHEM at 80/153.Largely to thank is the -PMM in the EPAC, the short lived slop in the Atlantic and the record strong -PDO+subtropical warmth (-4.00C in July).

Global TC is now starting to percolate up, with a TC in the SWIO, a potential TC in the EPAC (still officially only a 60/60 invest) and a TC in the WPAC developing quite rapidly into maybe the strongest system of the season so far (if it can RI before shear increases). #98W.

As long as 850s or 700s aren't so red hot that they're preventing adequate low level instability from materializing or are creating issues with inversions, this seems to be the best method for getting absolutely monster supercells with slow moving, photogenic, violent tornadoes.

During the summer, the name of the game for big photogenic tornado days seems to instead be to try to overlap the most nuclear EML possible atop an adequately deep moist layer to create as much CAPE as humanly possible. (Wellfleet as an example).

The final and largest key of airmass advection for severe setups is EML advection. For big tornado outbreaks, it's of course key to ensure EML trajectories are proper to minimize morning convection in the region of interest. Although. .

Moist layer depth also translates nicely over to the late spring/summer however for different reasons. In the majority of setups, moist layers won't be too shallow but rather too deep, causing issues with too much precipitation production and outflow dominance.