Julian Lin Profile
Julian Lin

@JulianLinStocks

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High conviction growth and quality investor - value matters.

Joined July 2021
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@JulianLinStocks
Julian Lin
5 days
It isn't often the market gives blatant gifts. $IIPR is selling off as $MSOS rises Cannabis rescheduling is set to be finalized and IIPR yields 14% It may feel hard to buy here given the tape action. It is on days like this that one might feel dumb to be "buying the dip." But
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@JulianLinStocks
Julian Lin
6 days
Now that the "sell the news event" has gone underway in cannabis rescheduling, we can reflect. I think it would be a mistake to hope for $MSOS to suddenly bounce back for no reason. Not all operators are created equal. Some trade at big valuations for no reason. Some have
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@JulianLinStocks
Julian Lin
6 days
The executive order to reschedule cannabis is finally official $MSOS is pulling back. $IIPR is curiously down in sympathy I have switched from my IIPR calls an bought the dip in size I expect IIPR and $NLCP to re-rate to a 10% dividend yield at the very least (8% yield is
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@JulianLinStocks
Julian Lin
6 days
Unpopular opinion: $IIPR > $MSOS for the cannabis rescheduling trade. Here is why: 280E going away massively improves tenant balance sheets. Better tenants = safer rent checks. You get paid a 13% dividend while you wait for the rerating. This is a disconnect. 40% upside to a
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@JulianLinStocks
Julian Lin
12 days
Rescheduling could allow "the stars to align" for cannabis stocks $MSOS Removing 280e taxes is just the first step and it may lead to a GAAP transformation for many. But this then opens the way for operators to refinance debt at lower interest rates, creating a positive feedback
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@JulianLinStocks
Julian Lin
12 days
expanding on the math - if $MSOS soars 100% then the $10 calls make like 8x If $IIPR rises 18% then it delivers the same upside. If $IIPR rises to a 10% yield, or $76 (up 35%), then calls make 16x. It's hard to believe MSOS soars crazy and IIPR doesn't at least get to a 10% yield
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@JulianLinStocks
Julian Lin
12 days
@JulianLinStocks
Julian Lin
12 days
Cannabis investors are sleeping on the landlords. $MSOS is soaring (and rightfully so) But I expect $IIPR and $NLCP to soar - far more than they have on Fri - on rescheduling. A note: MSOS Jan16'26 $6 sells for $0.84, $10 sells for $0.20 IIPR Jan16'26 $60 sells for $1.10 MSOS may
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@JulianLinStocks
Julian Lin
12 days
Cannabis investors are sleeping on the landlords. $MSOS is soaring (and rightfully so) But I expect $IIPR and $NLCP to soar - far more than they have on Fri - on rescheduling. A note: MSOS Jan16'26 $6 sells for $0.84, $10 sells for $0.20 IIPR Jan16'26 $60 sells for $1.10 MSOS may
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@JulianLinStocks
Julian Lin
12 days
Cannabis stocks are rising on reports President Trump may reschedule as soon as Monday. Here's my take. Retail will (rightfully) buy $MSOS Institutions will (also rightfully) buy $IIPR $NLCP Time is ticking to make your choice
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@JulianLinStocks
Julian Lin
2 months
What I'm hoping to see at the @blocks Investor Day, in order of priority $XYZ 1. Margin Expansion targets, with 2026 already seeing expansion. We do not want a delay on profit expansion. The stock will likely fall if you make 2026 an "investment year." Do not consider this. Many
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@JulianLinStocks
Julian Lin
2 months
Op margin was 18% in latest quarter $XYZ This gets to 30% -50% over time. At 30% this stock is trading at ~10x fwd earnings. Based on 15-20% fwd topline growth stock looks very cheap. I expect multiples to expand as management executes on margin expansion.
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@JulianLinStocks
Julian Lin
2 months
with the quarter already released, I see the most likely catalysts for $XYZ being as follows: 1. surprise and substantial margin expansion to go along with accelerating GP growth 2. Big insider buy by you-know-who 3. improve presentation on Cash App to convince why this isn't
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@JulianLinStocks
Julian Lin
2 months
I suspect $XYZ is down for two reasons in spite of a strong quarter: 1. op margins went down (and not up) 2. did not increase Q4 gp growth guidance It is curious to me why management did not push for op margin expansion instead of contraction given market clearly cares about
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@JulianLinStocks
Julian Lin
3 months
It is crucial Block $XYZ addresses the negative sentiment of Cash App. Investors view it to be a risky lending unit. $UPST trades at 10x gross profits versus Cash App at 2x gross profits (based on sell-side). Stock goes sharply higher if mgmt can change that narrative.
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@JulianLinStocks
Julian Lin
3 months
Block is cheaper than fintech peers but doesn’t look like it. Most are valuing based on EV/EBITDA or P/E which makes the stock actually look *expensive* to peers. The stock is cheaper on P/GP. The catalyst is obvious: drive op margins higher and higher. I am modeling 40% but this
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@JulianLinStocks
Julian Lin
3 months
Question for the $UPST bulls How is the platform better than Cash App Borrow $XYZ Why does UPST trade at 10x gross profits when XYZ trades are 4.6x? Cash App has far greater funding sustainability and the company has a net cash balance sheet, with solid GAAP margins. Growth rates
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@JulianLinStocks
Julian Lin
3 months
There’s a new Upstart in town From Block $XYZ “On the loss point, taking a step back from Borrow specifically, the core asset that we're leveraging to power Borrow and also post-purchase on BNPL on Cash App Card is Cash App's internal credit score. It's our internal custom credit
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@JulianLinStocks
Julian Lin
3 months
Valuation thoughts on Block $XYZ Stock currently trades at 4.6x gross profits At 30% net margins, that’s 15x earnings. If we instead assume 40% net margins and 20x earnings, that’s 8x sales or $128/share
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@nachunja
Cute Baby
4 months
$XYZ – How Square Can 10x I have a few questions: Why is MS Office available in 190 countries, but Square only in 8? Both are just software, aren’t they? Why can a street vendor in Senegal watch YouTube on his phone, but can't use Square? Same phones, right? At my farmers
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@nachunja
Cute Baby
5 months
$XYZ Only one person in history has founded two S&P 500 companies. Jack Dorsey.
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