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John Kicklighter Profile
John Kicklighter

@JohnKicklighter

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Analyst. The views I express here are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of my employer.

Chicago, IL
Joined March 2009
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@JohnKicklighter
John Kicklighter
6 hours
The Gold/Copper ratio - which is a gauge of economic health and risk trends - has pushed to a fresh record high following Trump's tariff threat on the latter. Rising gold prices usually suggest an appetite for a 'haven' and weaker copper less demand for a core economic metal
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@JohnKicklighter
John Kicklighter
7 hours
Coffee futures have seen a shift from a strong August rally to a level of consolidation the past few weeks. Rarely have I actually rooted for a head-and-shoulders pattern to play out as the textbooks would suggest, but I would do a rain dance to lower my caffeine costs.
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@JohnKicklighter
John Kicklighter
8 hours
We have the #NFPs tomorrow. The net change in payrolls has been trending lower the past four years. The various labor reports we have seen in the lead up to the (controversial owing to big revisions) release have not been flattering.
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@T1_Energy
T1 Energy
1 day
“We’re building advanced American manufacturing for solar and storage. Partnering with @PalantirTech allows us to quickly and effectively build a supply chain that creates U.S. jobs and stays ahead of the changing legislative landscape,” says T1 Chairman & CEO @_danielbarcelo.
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@JohnKicklighter
John Kicklighter
12 hours
The service sector activity report from ISM has come in stronger than expected - 52.0 vs 51 expected (50.1 previously). Encouraging as this is majority of economic output, but employment and prices still at unfavorable levels:
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@JohnKicklighter
John Kicklighter
1 day
$VIX futures have seen net speculative futures positioning hit a 3 year (bearish) extreme at the same time open interest hit a 4.5 year high. We could posit this is an extreme that will correct, but the 3 times it happened in past 10 years, there were weeks of further grind.
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@JohnKicklighter
John Kicklighter
1 day
Gold is extended its bullish run to 7 consecutive trading days. Longest stretch since March 2024, but only the second fastest climb in a 7-day stretch since April's reciprocal tariff swell. $XAUUSD
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@JohnKicklighter
John Kicklighter
2 days
A -0.9% gap down yesterday from $SPX has been balanced by 0.5% gap up today which has effectively 'closed closed the window' from the previous gap (if you consider Tuesday's low). It also puts us back above the trendline support we seemed to have broken yesterday.
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@grok
Grok
9 days
Join millions who have switched to Grok.
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@JohnKicklighter
John Kicklighter
2 days
Gold (spot) posted its biggest single-day rally in a month today and extended its bullish run to a 6th consecutive session's advance - longest charge since early April 2024. and a third straight record high close
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@JohnKicklighter
John Kicklighter
2 days
The Dollar has started with a jump this week/month, but still a ways to go before we get a critical $DXY break. We are going to be T-minus 2 weeks from the FOMC as of Wednesday. Will this be a driver - bullish or bearish?
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@JohnKicklighter
John Kicklighter
2 days
Back in President Trump's first term, tariffs and the trade war seemed to be aligned heavily to restoring manufacturing jobs. Is that still the principal aim in this go or is it government income? . ISM manufacturing is still struggling and employment component long negative
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@JohnKicklighter
John Kicklighter
2 days
RT @DeItaone: TRUMP: LOSING APPEAL ON TARIFFS WOULD BE AN ECONOMIC DISASTER.
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@JohnKicklighter
John Kicklighter
2 days
RT @DeItaone: TRUMP REPEATS THAT GLOBAL TARIFFS ARE AN ECONOMIC EMERGENCY.
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@JohnKicklighter
John Kicklighter
2 days
Seeing the first trading day of September will lean into unflattering expectations for the entire month. Historically, September averages out to be the worst month for the $SPX and second highest for VIX (past performance not indicative of future performance, of course)
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@DB_Squadra
DRAGON BALL GEKISHIN SQUADRA
28 days
BIG NEWS, Dragon Ball Fans!.Pre-register now and join Goku on day one!.Get exclusive launch rewards and rare items.Will you be the first to experience it?.
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@JohnKicklighter
John Kicklighter
2 days
Kicking off the new week and month (for the US), the $SPX has put in for its biggest bearish opening gap since May 23rd
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@JohnKicklighter
John Kicklighter
6 days
Can NFPs Override Expectations of Quiet and Pull S&P 500 from Record Highs?.
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@JohnKicklighter
John Kicklighter
6 days
A monthly chart look at a fundamental theme: a shift in 'haven' preference. As gold has pushed to a record high this past month, Bitcoin has dropped through August - though near record high. Dollar has lost significant traction
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@JohnKicklighter
John Kicklighter
6 days
The full jackpot value of the Powerball is currently ~$1 bln. The odds of winning is said to be 1 in 292 mln. Though extremely unlikely, payout times probability averages out to ~$3.42. Very assumptive and rudimentary, but pans out for a $2 ticket cost. .
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@JohnKicklighter
John Kicklighter
6 days
I feel I'm more a pragmatic rationalist than a cynic, but wouldn't it be reasonable to sink a lot of time and resource into creating a directional and repeatable EMP 'weapon' alongside the neck-break pace of developing AI?.
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@JohnKicklighter
John Kicklighter
6 days
'Meanwhile, back at the Legion (hedge) of Doom'. Gold stretching to a new record high into the close of August while backed by a record breaking 8-consecutive months of climb. #GOLD
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@Williamson4VA2
Williamson for Congress
9 hours
I’m a retired Marine LtCol and Democrat running for Congress in Virginia's 2nd District because I swore to defend this country. We need a new mission in Congress: one that puts people over profits. Help us retake this critical district now by clicking the video to donate.
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@JohnKicklighter
John Kicklighter
6 days
A more robust case for the bears eying the $SPX's relentless climb is the 'value' to be found in its current level. Capital gains (buy high, sell higher) is open to collective sentiment and the fundamental course, but technical yield is deflating relative to cost of underlying
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