Joe Olashugba
@JoeOlashugba
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Last week's Treasury auctions were solid despite the large issuance. Ended up writing a primer on auctions below. Worth a read. https://t.co/dQEfWzFb9p
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Safe to say we can push rate cut expectations back to Nov/Dec.
The April jobs report won't change much for the Fed because • There's another one before their next meeting • They're more focused on inflation data • It's doesn't show "unexpected" weakness But it will certainly help ease fears about reacceleration/overheating
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Yen intervention or not, this isn’t strong enough to pin the Yen below current levels mid 155. Focus needs to be on JGB yields, which will most likely be the first priority market to intervene on as yields on the 10y approach the 1% upper bound.
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Been putting some work on the substack- quality read for beginners & experienced macro traders/investors. Fed funds futures are a prime tool for understanding how the market is positioning for future policy meetings. Link in bio👌🏾
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Japanese markets are a point of focus globally. I’ve always had a profound interest in their economy since I learnt of their nuanced approach to monetary policy. Writing a report today covering Hajime Takata’s comments, JGBs & the Yen. April/May for the cut? We’ll see
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Crazy to see the impact and value being provided. Humbled to be a driver for good. From university to working in capital markets in the city. Fruitful
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For the OG MMH readers you would remember the days when I would write all reports Mon-Fri back in '22. Now we've expanded the team and you're getting to see some prominent & highly skilled macro analysts share their views of the global macro landscape. The grow continues
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Useful macro tip: Use XTB for your FX morning briefs. 2min read, bullet points. Don’t need to overcomplicate things. Just separate the noise from the signal in macro data.
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Been studying a lot. Took some time off, but will be sharing some key insights and concepts to learn within macro. I'm back.
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3 weeks & 18 days into '24. New goals, new 'motivation' will fade. A greater commitment to oneself is what will drive the needle forward this year. Keep your word to yourself.
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"I don't know enough" - A framework that I live by. Forces me to continue searching for answers. Continue being curious.
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You can go far by yourself. But you can go even further and greater with God.
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You ever felt yourself fully aligned? Fully focused? Completely invested in the mission. Completely obsessed with the mission. Every thought, plan, action is in alignment with that burning desire. Welcome to the zone.
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Just released a report on understanding & trading black swan events in the markets. The most simplified yet extensive breakdown of its importance. Black swan event = An unpredictable event that is extremely rare with severe consequences (Covid-19, Sept 11 attacks) Link in bio
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Understanding black swan events is crucial. In an environment of increasing geopolitical tensions and rising risks knowing the investment implications and acting fast is everything. The earthquake in Japan setting the stage for a shift in the Yen’s direction
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A powerful framework for clarity. Figure out the difference between: The version of yourself who is achieving everything you visioned and The version of yourself in the mirror.
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About time to do another deep dive on China. As Daniel Loeb said: "You won’t understand markets in general unless you know where China is going"
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