๐ Mr J Thomas ๐
@JedL2b
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Using data to trade horses (In play horse racing), darts & football. Always transparent, sharing P&L figures regularly, but for my own diary more than anything
Joined March 2019
Q. Whatโs my selection process? A. I look for runners who have dropped in odds over the last 5 runs & 18 months when starting below 50 BSP. I discard any that have won in the last 5 Q. Where do I get my data A. I use the daily download at https://t.co/sGwYk8PEvZ Page 1
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Exactly my point proven. Data does NOT lie. We all know Haddigan / White is a billy bullshitter, but I was blocked by this Moosh exposure account as I have been saying you canโt just lay bad tips for a profit & he just couldnโt grasp it. Iโd expect an apology but wont get one.
The Data Doesn't Lie: I backtested the "Moosh Tips" December selections and here is what happened... ๐ Watch here: ๐บ https://t.co/DdDNWTdIn2 Ever wondered if those "Lump" bets actually pay off? Several people have asked if we could backtest these selections using the
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Consistency is king. Another year proving that historical data is the ultimate edge. The systems Iโve built using @footballracing continue to do the heavy lifting with some manual darts chipping in Ending the year up nearly ยฃ20k. Trust the process, trust the data. HNY all ๐๐ป
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๐ Football Bet Data โ Full Tutorial Series (FREE) โฝ https://t.co/w9ndbaTaxz Iโve put together a complete walkthrough showing how to use Football Bet Data , from dashboards and filters to Excel exports, team history, and profitability analysis. Whether youโre betting,
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If more people spent time testing ideas properly instead of parroting narratives, thereโd be far fewer โfraudulent tipstersโ & far fewer losing punters ๐๐ป 14/14
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For me, the only way to consistently exploit racing markets is with data-driven approaches, most often in-play trading, laying horses below their true price and managing the exit 13/14
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You cannot beat the market following random selections, full stop. Direction doesnโt matter. Backing or laying junk is still junk 12/14
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Short-term variance fools people. A good run convinces them theyโve found a system. But over a proper sample size, randomness gets exposed whether youโre backing or laying 11/14
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This is the key point many fail to grasp: โ A losing back strategy does not automatically become a winning lay strategy. โ Random selections donโt gain value just because you flip the bet type. 10/14
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But now look across to the Lay Profit column (indicated by the blue arrow) This is where some claim the โedgeโ magically appears. Lay P/L after commission: โยฃ154.45 Still a loss 9/14
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Now look at the profit table attached Backing all selections at ยฃ10 level stakes: Industry SP P/L: โยฃ956.40 No surprise, consistent with the idea that the tips themselves are losing 8/14
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Result: 1,492 selections for the year (just over 4 per day) Thatโs more than Haddigan likely tips, but crucially removes the noise of small sample sizes which is another drum i continue to bang 7/14
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This takes less than 20 seconds using publicly available data. Using the Racing Bet Data dashboard: โข Race type: All Novice races โข Selections: Pre-race favourites only โข Market: Betfair โข Year: 2025 (Output to screen) 6/14
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I repeatedly asked for a full list of Haddiganโs tips so this could be demonstrated properly with data. No one has ever provided them & heโs now blocked me for questioning his madness. So instead, letโs do a simple, objective experiment 5/14
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Even more baffling is how many people blindly accept this logic. No data. No testing. Just vibes. And then everyone wonders why there are so many losing punters. 4/14
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Take the โDonโt Join Moosh Tipsโ account as an example. Doing good work highlighting the scammer Jason Haddigan, fair enough. But in the same breath, advocating laying Haddiganโs random picks as a โsystemโ? Thatโs madness 3/14
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Iโve been banging this drum for years about getting value & system testing, yet people still overlook it: A tipster being a losing backer does NOT automatically mean their selections are profitable to lay on Betfair 2/14
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Racing Twitter! I find myself shaking my head at some of the nonsense I see on Racing Twitter these days. Itโs no wonder so many punters fail, thereโs still a fundamental misunderstanding of value, variance, and testing 1/14
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An account that has done a great job in raising awareness about the Fraudulent conman Jason Haddigan (Moosh tips) has let itself down badly. They just couldnโt grasp the concept that laying without value isnโt profitable & instead of presenting any facts - just decide to block
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The darts is back tomorrow everybody ๐ Historically a very profitable tournament to trade certain matches. Set play suits my trading style. No real value in the overall winner with Littler being odds on before a dart is thrown! Rydz or Dobey perhaps for some outside value
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Pack up wasting your time & money on useless tipsters & the likes of Haddigan. Create / find / be the edge ๐๐ป
Running a small online business in 2025 isnโt easy. For every EU customer I get, up to 27% (Thanks Hungary ๐ญ๐บ) of my profit goes straight to VAT OSS I donโt pass that on, I take the hit. Then thereโs 19% corporation tax. Add on the rising costs of web hosting, development,
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