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๐Ÿ‘‘ Mr J Thomas ๐Ÿ‘‘ Profile
๐Ÿ‘‘ Mr J Thomas ๐Ÿ‘‘

@JedL2b

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Following
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Using data to trade horses (In play horse racing), darts & football. Always transparent, sharing P&L figures regularly, but for my own diary more than anything

Joined March 2019
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@JedL2b
๐Ÿ‘‘ Mr J Thomas ๐Ÿ‘‘
6 years
Q. Whatโ€™s my selection process? A. I look for runners who have dropped in odds over the last 5 runs & 18 months when starting below 50 BSP. I discard any that have won in the last 5 Q. Where do I get my data A. I use the daily download at https://t.co/sGwYk8PEvZ Page 1
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@JedL2b
๐Ÿ‘‘ Mr J Thomas ๐Ÿ‘‘
2 days
Exactly my point proven. Data does NOT lie. We all know Haddigan / White is a billy bullshitter, but I was blocked by this Moosh exposure account as I have been saying you canโ€™t just lay bad tips for a profit & he just couldnโ€™t grasp it. Iโ€™d expect an apology but wont get one.
@footballracing
Football-Bet-Data / Racing-Bet-Data
2 days
The Data Doesn't Lie: I backtested the "Moosh Tips" December selections and here is what happened... ๐Ÿ“‰ Watch here: ๐Ÿ“บ https://t.co/DdDNWTdIn2 Ever wondered if those "Lump" bets actually pay off? Several people have asked if we could backtest these selections using the
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@JedL2b
๐Ÿ‘‘ Mr J Thomas ๐Ÿ‘‘
17 days
Consistency is king. Another year proving that historical data is the ultimate edge. The systems Iโ€™ve built using @footballracing continue to do the heavy lifting with some manual darts chipping in Ending the year up nearly ยฃ20k. Trust the process, trust the data. HNY all ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿป
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@footballracing
Football-Bet-Data / Racing-Bet-Data
1 month
๐Ÿ“Š Football Bet Data โ€“ Full Tutorial Series (FREE) โšฝ https://t.co/w9ndbaTaxz Iโ€™ve put together a complete walkthrough showing how to use Football Bet Data , from dashboards and filters to Excel exports, team history, and profitability analysis. Whether youโ€™re betting,
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@JedL2b
๐Ÿ‘‘ Mr J Thomas ๐Ÿ‘‘
1 month
If more people spent time testing ideas properly instead of parroting narratives, thereโ€™d be far fewer โ€œfraudulent tipstersโ€ & far fewer losing punters ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿป 14/14
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@JedL2b
๐Ÿ‘‘ Mr J Thomas ๐Ÿ‘‘
1 month
For me, the only way to consistently exploit racing markets is with data-driven approaches, most often in-play trading, laying horses below their true price and managing the exit 13/14
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@JedL2b
๐Ÿ‘‘ Mr J Thomas ๐Ÿ‘‘
1 month
You cannot beat the market following random selections, full stop. Direction doesnโ€™t matter. Backing or laying junk is still junk 12/14
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@JedL2b
๐Ÿ‘‘ Mr J Thomas ๐Ÿ‘‘
1 month
Short-term variance fools people. A good run convinces them theyโ€™ve found a system. But over a proper sample size, randomness gets exposed whether youโ€™re backing or laying 11/14
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@JedL2b
๐Ÿ‘‘ Mr J Thomas ๐Ÿ‘‘
1 month
This is the key point many fail to grasp: โŒ A losing back strategy does not automatically become a winning lay strategy. โŒ Random selections donโ€™t gain value just because you flip the bet type. 10/14
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@JedL2b
๐Ÿ‘‘ Mr J Thomas ๐Ÿ‘‘
1 month
But now look across to the Lay Profit column (indicated by the blue arrow) This is where some claim the โ€œedgeโ€ magically appears. Lay P/L after commission: โ€“ยฃ154.45 Still a loss 9/14
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@JedL2b
๐Ÿ‘‘ Mr J Thomas ๐Ÿ‘‘
1 month
Now look at the profit table attached Backing all selections at ยฃ10 level stakes: Industry SP P/L: โ€“ยฃ956.40 No surprise, consistent with the idea that the tips themselves are losing 8/14
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@JedL2b
๐Ÿ‘‘ Mr J Thomas ๐Ÿ‘‘
1 month
Result: 1,492 selections for the year (just over 4 per day) Thatโ€™s more than Haddigan likely tips, but crucially removes the noise of small sample sizes which is another drum i continue to bang 7/14
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@JedL2b
๐Ÿ‘‘ Mr J Thomas ๐Ÿ‘‘
1 month
This takes less than 20 seconds using publicly available data. Using the Racing Bet Data dashboard: โ€ข Race type: All Novice races โ€ข Selections: Pre-race favourites only โ€ข Market: Betfair โ€ข Year: 2025 (Output to screen) 6/14
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@JedL2b
๐Ÿ‘‘ Mr J Thomas ๐Ÿ‘‘
1 month
I repeatedly asked for a full list of Haddiganโ€™s tips so this could be demonstrated properly with data. No one has ever provided them & heโ€™s now blocked me for questioning his madness. So instead, letโ€™s do a simple, objective experiment 5/14
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@JedL2b
๐Ÿ‘‘ Mr J Thomas ๐Ÿ‘‘
1 month
Even more baffling is how many people blindly accept this logic. No data. No testing. Just vibes. And then everyone wonders why there are so many losing punters. 4/14
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@JedL2b
๐Ÿ‘‘ Mr J Thomas ๐Ÿ‘‘
1 month
Take the โ€œDonโ€™t Join Moosh Tipsโ€ account as an example. Doing good work highlighting the scammer Jason Haddigan, fair enough. But in the same breath, advocating laying Haddiganโ€™s random picks as a โ€œsystemโ€? Thatโ€™s madness 3/14
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@JedL2b
๐Ÿ‘‘ Mr J Thomas ๐Ÿ‘‘
1 month
Iโ€™ve been banging this drum for years about getting value & system testing, yet people still overlook it: A tipster being a losing backer does NOT automatically mean their selections are profitable to lay on Betfair 2/14
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@JedL2b
๐Ÿ‘‘ Mr J Thomas ๐Ÿ‘‘
1 month
Racing Twitter! I find myself shaking my head at some of the nonsense I see on Racing Twitter these days. Itโ€™s no wonder so many punters fail, thereโ€™s still a fundamental misunderstanding of value, variance, and testing 1/14
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@JedL2b
๐Ÿ‘‘ Mr J Thomas ๐Ÿ‘‘
1 month
An account that has done a great job in raising awareness about the Fraudulent conman Jason Haddigan (Moosh tips) has let itself down badly. They just couldnโ€™t grasp the concept that laying without value isnโ€™t profitable & instead of presenting any facts - just decide to block
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@JedL2b
๐Ÿ‘‘ Mr J Thomas ๐Ÿ‘‘
1 month
The darts is back tomorrow everybody ๐Ÿ˜€ Historically a very profitable tournament to trade certain matches. Set play suits my trading style. No real value in the overall winner with Littler being odds on before a dart is thrown! Rydz or Dobey perhaps for some outside value
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@JedL2b
๐Ÿ‘‘ Mr J Thomas ๐Ÿ‘‘
2 months
Pack up wasting your time & money on useless tipsters & the likes of Haddigan. Create / find / be the edge ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿป
@footballracing
Football-Bet-Data / Racing-Bet-Data
2 months
Running a small online business in 2025 isnโ€™t easy. For every EU customer I get, up to 27% (Thanks Hungary ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ) of my profit goes straight to VAT OSS I donโ€™t pass that on, I take the hit. Then thereโ€™s 19% corporation tax. Add on the rising costs of web hosting, development,
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