Josh Linville
@JLinvilleFert
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Vice President of Fertilizer @StoneX_Official, 20+ yrs experience in US/International Fertilizer Markets, All tweets are my own, RT≠Endorsements.
Kansas City, MO
Joined June 2019
Think it is fair to call fall fertilizer season done for most of the corn belt?
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India's urea purchase tender is wrapping up with 1.5M tons secured. Shy of their stated goal but exactly in line with what we thought they needed. Lot of tons gave up a lot of value to participate...not saying the market is falling apart but bull ground getting shaky.
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In case you are bored and need something to watch. The volcano on Big Island is active again with a fountain and river. USGs has livestreams (one of the links below). https://t.co/fzSE6882xk
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Got some big fertilizer stories to hit on: - Russia/Ukraine peace talks ramping up. What would it mean for fertilizers? - European gas values falling? Could offline plants restart? - US. farmers waiting for payments. How that can change the market. https://t.co/hM8UdNf86o
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Thank goodness. For a second there, I was beginning to think that maybe I was also a bot halfway around the world!!!
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Dear India. Please change your approach to buying urea. In the past, when supplies were plentiful, a large volume purchase got you a discount. That is not the world today. Large volume hurts you. Of the 8 previous tenders, all but 2 have "failed" to reach stated volume.
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In all of 2024, China only exported 262K tons of urea (vs a normal 5 to 5.5M). This year, they have exported 4M tons with Nov/Dec still to go. Current global urea values are 20% higher than the same time last year. Please make it make sense.
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Our Ag team is looking forward to attending the 2025 ARA Conference and Expo. Be sure to attend StoneX Vice President of Fertilizer @JLinvilleFert's session: “Fertilizer Market Outlook”. Dec 3rd, 3:15-4:30pm. #Fertilizer
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President Trump, when your administration considers subsidy payments to farmers, please bear in mind the price grains were at harvest rather than today. A lot of grain got sold at lower prices across the scale...
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Gird your loins, fertilizer markets.
US will soon announce details of farmer payments, says agriculture secretary -
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Here is this week's StoneX fertilizer video. Covering: - What it means with fertilizer being removed from tariff considerations - Chinese urea exports expected to grow - India looking for A LOT of urea in their current purchase tender https://t.co/WUeS4OKUpN
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Finally got U.S. August trade data. Urea is interesting. For July/August, Russia accounted for 91% of all urea imports or 275K tons of a 301K ton total. No doubt there is a lot of front loading on those shipments in case something happens but sheesh.
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Global phosphate values continue to decline slightly (down 10 - 15% depending on where you compare) AND the U.S. removing phosphate from tariff considerations is a big 1-2 win for N.A. farmers. It does not solve the current high price, but it helps take the edge off.
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I'm back from vacation and have good news!! Late Friday, U.S. government announced that fertilizers were exempt from tariff rates. Removes a big import barrier which should improve supplies. Please stay tuned for inevitable bad news later in the week!!!
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Please, no one share this with CNN. They will air it as though it is reality...
Todo ano os bovinos saem do mato e fazem uma toca aonde irão depositar os ovos que darão origem à próxima geração de bezerrinhos..
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FYI, I'm going to go quiet next week. Taking a much need vacation with the Mrs. Most important part: I am NOT taking my work laptop/cell phone. I am really hoping the market doesn't go nuts while I am gone!!!
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In the last 24 hours: - China approved 600K tons of urea exports (market fell) - Yazoo City, MS experience an explosion and NH3 leak - My flight home from Denver is delayed multiple hours ...this is not a coincidence. What will happen when I am actually OOO starting Saturday?
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Join @ArlanFF101's next Market Outlook Webinar, November 14, for insights on the implications of the deal on crop acreage mix, Chinese compliance, and the potential benefits for feed grains. Register now to gain access to all Arlan’s 2025 outlook webinars:
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Sounds like CF's Yazoo City nitrogen facility is still operational following the explosion and NH3 leak. More important, no injuries or fatalities have been heard. This should be a reminder that there is a reason plants go down for repairs. High temp/pressure processes.
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Insert 4 letter expletive here
Evacuations have been ordered in the area surrounding the C.F. Industries chemical plant in Yazoo County, Mississippi, following an ammonia leak and an earlier reported explosion.
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