I’m rolling out a new series on dynasty asset valuation called ‘Dynasty Triage’. This is how I determine what I want to roster or want to move off of.
Free to read and sub at the link below:
@MyFantasyLeague
@Dynasty_Degens
MarShawn Lloyd is my guy in the 2024 NFL Draft class
With how anti-RB Dynasty has become, you’re going to likely be able to regularly get Lloyd in the 2nd round. That’s an awesome pick.
Plays like the love child of D’Andre Swift and Doug Martin.
Xavier Worthy is my WR4 in the 2024 NFL Draft
The part of X’s game that’s notable is how he’s able to operate from out wide and the slot
Capable of winning at all 3 levels of the field with the elite trait which we love but he’s not just a speed merchant
The Jayden Daniels experience summed up in one play:
Make a defender look foolish in the open field followed by taking a hit that you think they’ll need a shovel to peel him off the turf on
Daniels is electric, he has to learn to protect himself
2nd play is an absolute dot 🎯
Not nearly enough people are talking about MarShawn Lloyd in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Lloyd has a true 3 down skillset in a RB class that doesn’t have many excited.
His adaptability and improvisation is the best in the 2024 class imo.
Enjoy below my RB1 in 2024, MarShawn Lloyd.
I just don’t think this guy should be available in round 10 of dynasty startups.
Not every young WR is Justin Jefferson, Chase, or Garrett Wilson. We used to have to wait for 3rd year breakouts.
Incoming scheme change, I want to acquire Rashod Bateman.
What’s more likely:
Antonio Gibson is a good, scheme diverse RB who had double digit TD seasons Y1 and Y2 but was used poorly Y3 and the OC was fired as a result
Or
he was never good, was a product of circumstance and he’ll never produce that way again
It is comical that Brock Bowers is TE eligible for dynasty rosters
There has never been a TE prospect with the proven track record of production against elite competition like Bowers
If your leaguemates don’t want to draft him because of a pic taken in February, say thank you
🧵THREAD🧵
The 2023 QB Class is a polarizing one
What was thought to be a class that would have five potential 1st round picks at the position has quickly turned into a myriad of prospects with question marks
I try to make sense of their strengths and weaknesses below ⬇️
Marvin Harrison Jr. will no doubt be a great NFL WR
If you own the 1.02 in your rookie drafts, I’d explore moving to 1.03-1.04, take Malik Nabers along with a 25 1st, then have the opportunity to draft a Luther Burden, Tet McMillan, Evan Stewart in 2025
Thought on Devon Achane:
I just keep seeing that Devon Achane is an outlier from a historical context, that’s fine.
He lands in MIA where the lead RB in 2022 was Raheem Mostert
Mostert at his pro day came in at 5103 190lbs
Mike McDaniel was an undersized scrappy Ivy League WR
🧵Najee Harris🧵
I know it’s popular to hate on Najee Harris because he’s “inefficient” with his touches.
I can’t help but feel like Najee Harris is one of the biggest buys in dynasty right now and here’s why I think that is below
#HereWeGo
🧵THREAD🧵
The WR position in the 2023 NFL draft class has been dissected over the last month.
Analysts have mixed opinions on the depth and overall skill of the class.
I wanted to contextualize some metrics that highlight potential strengths and weaknesses for these WRs ⬇️
In 2002 at the age of 40, Jerry Rice had a stat line of:
📍150 targets
📍92 receptions
📍1211 receiving yards
📍7 TDs
That’s good for 255.1 PPR points making him WR9 in 2022
“Xavier Worthy is fast, too bad he weighs 165lbs and is undersized” blah blah blah
Fading the versatility Xavier Worthy brings to the field along with 4.21 speed because he’s 165lbs is nothing short of asinine
2023 fantasy football PPR RB1s combine measurables:
♦️RB1 CMC: 5’11 202
♦️RB5 Raheem Mostert: 5’10 195
♦️RB7: Kyren Williams: 5’9 194
♦️RB10: Jahmyr Gibbs: 5’9 199
♦️RB12: James Cook 5’11 199
May be time to end the crusade on RBs who lack “workhorse size”
Scout traits instead.
After 5 weeks of CFB, my top 36 big board for the 2024 NFL Draft:
SF, PPR, TEP:
1.01- Caleb Williams
1.02-Marvin Harrison Jr.
1.03- Drake Maye
1.04- Malik Nabers
1.05- Emeka Egbuka
1.06- Brock Bowers
1.07- Quinn Ewers
1.08- TreVeyon Henderson
1.09- Bo Nix
1.10- Xavier Worthy
Jermaine Burton O/U 40 time set at 4.34
If you’re not familiar with his game I’d get acclimated because he’s going to be a big winner at the 2024 NFL combine
He’s a guy that is simply too low in a lot of rankings
Tyjae Spears had 112 zone carries vs. 117 gap carries, the most even split in the 2023 NFL draft class given workload easily:
Spears can slot into any offense and be an efficient runner in their scheme.
A PFF REC grade of 73.0 (6th in the 2023 class)
Spears can do it all.
Braelon Allen for being listed at 6’2 238lbs certainly doesn’t play to that size.
I’m seeing a lot of people referring to him as the clear RB1 of the class and I’m just not seeing that at all.
Outside my top 5 RBs in the 2024 NFL draft comorfortably.
So from what I gather on the timeline, Xavier Worthy is too fast to be an incredibly talented WR prospect?
If that’s the hill people are willing to die on I’d caution taking those people seriously
Thank you to
@ScottFish24
for the invite into
#SFB13
. A great cause and event that helps so many people.
Truly means the world to me that so many people in this space went out of their way to nominate me. I’m a very lucky guy to have so many friends.
Izzy Abanikanda is certainly the man of the hour after his pro day performance today:
🐆4.39 40 YD Dash
🐆41” Vertical
🐆5105 217lbs
I’m not surprised he performed so well today, my thoughts below on Izzy throughout the pre-draft process⬇️
Jahmyr Gibbs, De’Von Achane and James Cook are the exact type of RBs you should be investing in for dynasty.
RBs are being penalized for being able to take on a full workload. They’re going to have to market themselves as playmakers, not RBs.
For the record, I am not hiding my bias at all, this is going to be a UNLV propaganda account for the foreseeable future
If you’re a college football fan though you may want to familiarize yourself with Matt Sluka’s game
UNLV is going to the college football playoff in 2024.
Ex-Holy Cross QB Matthew Sluka is expected to transfer to UNLV, a source tells
@247sports
.
Sluka, a Walter Payton Award finalist at Holy Cross each of the last two years, has 5,916 career passing yards, 3,583 career rushing yards and 97 career total TDs.
🧵THREAD🧵
The 2023 RB class has been touted as an execeptionally deep group since the 2021.
We’re in the off-season. We over-analyze every player and come away with “this class is not good”. Happens every year.
We’ll see if that’s true. Let’s dive into the 2023 NFL RB class⬇️
For whoever is calling plays for the Atlanta Falcons I have but one simple ask
Kyle Pitts doesn’t need to line up in the slot/out wide 85% of the time
Literally just play him like a TE. Just use him exactly like Kelce and Andrews are used. It’s not hard.
Pretty clear cut top 10 for me in rookie SF drafts with:
Caleb Williams
MHJ
Nabers
Jayden Daniels
Drake Maye
JJ McCarthy
Rome Odunze
Brock Bowers
Xavier Worthy
Brian Thomas
Your draft starts at 1.11, as always if you can trade it for a 25 first plus I’d easily do it
It is hilarious how people are talking up Ladd McConkey and comping him to COOPER KUPP when in reality, this guy is Kyle Philips.
Which is fine, he can have a role. First round pick though? Come on. WR1 in fantasy? I’m not betting on it.
Let other managers draft him high.
We
@domaindynasty
ran a startup mock with 2023 rookies included. Through 13 rounds in a 12TM SF TEP draft.
24 rookies were selected. Here are the first 12 selected.
@MyFantasyLeague
🧵THREAD🧵
The TE position in the 2023 NFL draft is being discussed as an elite group:
⭐️Potentially 3 TEs in round 1
We only care about the TEs ability to catch for fantasy purposes and want either the elite or tend to punt the position
So how do these guys stack up⬇️
🧵JOSH DOWNS🧵
Downs feels like the guy that just isn’t talked about enough in the consensus top 5 WRs
Idk if it’s because he’s viewed as so safe we don’t have to talk about him, but I want to put a little spotlight on some fun Josh Downs stuff.
You’ll hear a lot of narratives of what Bryce Young lacks this off-season.
Don’t listen if someone says arm strength is an issue.
The last throw vs. Georgia future top 5 pick Jalen Carter barrels toward him. Young stands in and delivers a 60 yard bomb.
Just took Justin Fields at 1.11 in a SF dynasty startup, vibes could not be higher going into MDW
I urge you not to fade him like this. He’s simply the most dynamic playmaker in the NFL today. These guys don’t just disappear. He is my 1.06 in SF.
I don’t typically get political, usually just talk ball on here:
If you support Hamas, please unfollow me.
I’d also implore you to think long and hard about what you stand for as a human being.
Hamas is a terrorist organization, plain and simple.
Evan Hull is a guy I think NFL teams will like a lot more than the draft community
Played for a horrendous Northwestern team where everyone knew he was the entire offense
Most diverse route tree of all 2023 RBs
62.2% gap runner speaks more to lack of talent around him
🧵⬇️
I’ve seen a lot of CJ Stroud over Joe Burrow in dynasty takes lately. While I appreciate the optimism for a young QB, this isn’t factoring in Bobby Slowik leaving.
Burrow has the contract, elite WR, offensive minded HC. I’m trading Stroud for Burrow plus.
How does Caleb Williams rate among the most highly regarded QB prospects since 2010?
The answer is Caleb deserves to be talked about in the same light as these guys
Anything to the contrary seems like a commentary on his off the field persona which frankly, I don’t care.
2023 RB Class rank in rushing yards over expected yards per carry for their college careers:
What extra did they get per carry?
Plus group:
1.Zach Evans- 0.67
2.Devon Achane- 0.58
3.C. Brown- 0.57
4.Kendre Miller- .47
5.Bijan Robinson- .46
6.B. Corum- .39
7.Z. Charbonnet- .13
🧵ROSCHON JOHNSON🧵
Roschon is a guy that has grown on me throughout the draft process. Initially from watching Texas games I thought he was a plodder type guy.
Once I broke down some more of his game, I came away thinking this guy is a day 2 pick.
🧵 THREAD 🧵
2023 NFL Draft WR prospect career slot %:
🔸The genesis of this thread was the commonly used talking point of:
“JSN doesn’t have to be a slot WR in the NFL just because he was in college. Justin Jefferson was too”.
📌JJeff slot %: 65.2
📌JSN slot %: 84.9
🧵Quentin Johnston Thread🧵
🐸There has been a lot to do about QJ’s ceiling/floor, some analysts are comfortable putting him at WR2 in the class because his ROO (range of outcomes) is too vast.
🐸Quentin Johnston is my WR2 for the reasons below:
🧵THREAD🧵
I’ve held the position that Devon Achane is a better football player and a more talented RB than Jahmyr Gibbs
Since we’ve exhausted rookie rankings and relevant pro day coverage, I figured now would be as good a time as ever to quantify why I think that is.
Chris Olave in 2022 among WRs w/ 400 snaps:
15th in TGT Share: 26.6%
8th in TPRR: 28.1%
11th in YPRR: 2.46
6th in ADOT: 14.6
4th in Air Yds: 1793
2nd in TM Air Yd Share: 43.7%
Scored 17.5 less total fantasy points than Garrett Wilson in 2 less games
Devon Achane and Kendre Miller both were in a time share their first two seasons. Their 3rd season they got to lead a backfield. In both scenarios, Achane was the better RB. The only way you vote Miller is because of his size which means nothing if he’s not as good of a RB.
Mark Andrews, Dalton Kincaid, Michael Mayer are the only three TEs since 2010 to reach these thresholds once throughout their entire college career
Brock Bowers did it 2 times in his career as an 18 and 19 year old in the SEC lol
Since 2010:
Power 5 TEs with at least one season of 200+ PPR points and a RYPTPA of 2.00+:
📍Mark Andrews
Two
#NFLDraft2023
prospects join him:
📍Michael Mayer
📍Dalton Kincaid
Closest TEs to threshold:
📍Evan Engram: career high 1.92 RYPTPA
📍Zach Ertz: 194.6 PPR points
Collapsing for Caleb in dynasty formats to secure the 1.01 is very real
I don’t say this lightly, and it’s not reactionary, this is the list of QBs I currently value over Caleb Williams:
Patrick Mahomes
Josh Allen
Jalen Hurts
Joe Burrow
Justin Herbert
Jaylen Wright is a damn good RB in the 2024 NFL Draft class
What I enjoyed most:
🔸patience in setting up blocks
🔸bursty, hits the hole, doesn’t dance
🔸contact balance, consistently breaks arm tackles
Light boxes sometimes b/c of the offense, but a skilled RB. Top 5 RB easy.
I like to look at KTC every week and see how the market feels about dynasty assets. This helps me determine if I can gain some value I didn’t know was available.
My biggest sells currently:
QB: Bryce Young QB10
WR: Garrett Wilson WR3
RB: Travis Etienne RB7
TE: George Kittle TE5
I see a lot of debate between Travis Kelce vs. Kyle Pitts as the dynasty TE1.
I’ll say this:
You can likely go trade Travis Kelce for Kyle Pitts straight up today.
A Kyle Pitts owner trading for Travis Kelce 1 for 1 today is far more improbable.
My early 2023 dynasty rookie RB rankings:
Bijan
Zach Charbonnet
Devon Achane
Zach Evans
Jahmyr Gibbs
Kendre Miller
Tyjae Spears
Sean Tucker
Izzy Abanikanda
Chase Brown
Tank Bigsby
Kenny McIntosh
Roschon Johnson
Eric Gray
Keaton Mitchell
Deuce Vaughn
Dewayne McBride
🧵THREAD🧵
The 2023 NFL combine kicks off next Tuesday. Because of the depth of the class, I’d argue this is the most important combine for top dynasty rookie prospects in quite some time.
Here are some top storylines you should be on the lookout for ⬇️
But yeah…can’t create in the pocket
People are going to fade a talent like Caleb Williams because he’s upset his team loses and he paints his finger nails.
@CharlesChillFFB
I think it’s relevant. He was consensus RB1 for 2024 and the only RB that projected to be a 1st in rookie drafts.
Even if you’re anti-RB, he from the moment he was drafted would likely be valued as a top 8 player at RB. That’s a valuable asset. Big loss for the 2024 class.
Josh Downs is a guy that isn’t getting as much hype as I thought he would be:
5’10 175lbs
Analytically:
🐏 35.6% Dom. Rating
🐏 19.1 breakout age (87th %)
🐏 39.2% target share (99th %)
My thoughts on the film in the comments:
#NFLDraft2023
If you like Marvin Mims’s play style but didn’t want to pay 2nd round rookie pick cost, I’ve got good news for you
Jermaine Burton will be a 3rd or 4th round pick in rookie drafts that I’m going to find myself drafting a lot.
I’m seeing JSN highlights, Zay Flowers is the best WR in camp reports, Jordan Addison being penciled in for Adam Thielen’s role and yet…
Nothing on Quentin Johnston
That should change. This was THE landing spot we wanted for a rookie WR, he’s got it.
Deandre Hopkins Rookie year:
91 tgts/tgt share 14.7%/52 recs/802 yds/2 TDs
George Pickens rookie year:
84 tgts/tgt share 15.5%/52 rec/801 yds/4 TDs
I know it’s cool in to fade Pickens but the 1k rookie season is fairly rare.
I like having good young WRs on my dynasty team 🤷🏼♂️
Keon Coleman has drawn the ire of most who are starting their rookie process
He lacks nuance as a route runner but this is a 6’4 215lb WR returning punts, unheard of really.
Special athlete that’s likely available late R1, early R2 of dynasty drafts
I’ve changed my thinking on this subject:
If Anthony Richardson is a top 10 pick in the NFL draft, he’s the 1.02 in all Superflex formats unequivocally. Come May, we may be discussing 1.01 as well.
My early 2023 dynasty rookie RB rankings:
Bijan
Zach Charbonnet
Devon Achane
Zach Evans
Jahmyr Gibbs
Kendre Miller
Tyjae Spears
Sean Tucker
Izzy Abanikanda
Chase Brown
Tank Bigsby
Kenny McIntosh
Roschon Johnson
Eric Gray
Keaton Mitchell
Deuce Vaughn
Dewayne McBride
Are we really doing this Rashaad Penny thing again? It’s a 1 year deal. He’s a 27 year old RB who’s played 5 years in the NFL. Never a full one or close to it. Guys typically don’t get healthier the older they get. They can easily draft a RB which I would advise they should.
🧵MICHAEL WILSON🧵
This is a deep cut, not for the faint of heart. Michael Wilson is a player that is not being talked about nearly enough and at current ADP is one of the biggest values in your rookie drafts.
Let’s talk Michael Wilson ⬇️
Matt Sluka vs. South Dakota State today 26 carries for 213 yards
-Walter Payton Award finalist
-Dual threat QB with lax background who is a killer when he tucks the ball and runs
-SDSU is the
#1
rush defense in the FCS allowing 70.8 yards per game
Sluka gashed them for 213 🤯
Career game for potential
#Devy
prospect Matt Sluka. 146 rushing, 238 yards passing including this Hail Mary winner vs. Buffalo. Sluka moves to 2-0 vs FBS teams in his time as Holy Cross’s starter.
This kid is a flat out baller 6’2.5 216, ran a 4.56 40, 115” broad, 34” vert.
No QB in the 2025 NFL Draft class has a higher ceiling than Jalen Milroe
Think Jalen Hurts development
In Kalen DeBoer’s offense, Milroe can showcase timing and precision, huge for his development in 2024, I’m very excited to see him grow as a player.
Just want to take a moment and thank the over 2,000 people that for some reason decided to follow this account.
It’s been fun getting to know the many people I’ve gotten to meet talking about a pretend game.
This time last year I had 200 followers, this truly blows my mind.
Its been cool seeing Cedric Tillman be mocked often in day 2 of NFL drafts recently. This guy is a baller.
I try and combine film and analytics as best I can. Tillman has one year of solid production so the analytical profile is a mess. I don’t care though, his film is too good.
Going through Sean Tucker film and I just have to say, what a crime that Jared Verse didn’t declare for the 2023 NFL Draft.
You would be correct that is him almost catching Sean Tucker from behind.
He’s 6’4 250, Tucker is listed at 5’10 210.
Overall my ranks:
1A.)Bryce Young
1B.) CJ Stroud
3.)A-Rich
4.)Hendon Hooker
5.)Will Levis
6.)Jake Haener
7.)Jaren Hall
8.)Stetson Bennett
9.)Tanner McKee
10.)Max Duggan
Since 2013:
Early declare power 5 WRs with (1) 280+ PPR season and 3.00+ RYPTPA:
Keenan Allen
Marquise Lee
Amari Cooper
Juju Smith-Schuster
Jerry Jeudy
Ceedee Lamb
Ja’Marr Chase
Wan’Dale Robinson
3 WRs in the 2023 class hit this mark:
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Josh Downs
Jalin Hyatt
🧵JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA 🧵
Oftentimes we don’t say why a prospect is so highly regarded in their class. We just take it for granted and move on in search of sleepers.
I think it’s important to highlight the guys that stand out and why that is.
JSN ⬇️:
⭐️Top 5 in YPRR at TE in 2022 (min. 350 snaps)
1.)Chig Okonkwo: 2.88
2.)Travis Kelce: 2.42
3.)Jake Ferguson: 2.10
4.)Dallas Goedert: 2.10
5.)Mark Andrews: 2.05
W/ Dallas potentially losing Dalton Schultz in FA this off-season, I’d be checking in on Jake Ferguson.
2021 YPRR ⬇️
My biggest buys according to KTC:
QB:
Deshaun Watson QB10
Russell Wilson QB19
Matt Stafford QB26
RB:
Austin Ekeler RB9
Alvin Kamara RB27
WR:
Chris Godwin WR24
Diontae Johnson WR31
Amari Cooper WR33
Jakobi Meyers WR43
TE:
Trey McBride TE15
Noah Fant TE21
Jake Ferguson TE29
I can’t watch Roschon Johnson and not see Chris Carson now
Similar play style and analytical profile, bellcow size, good receiving ability
Johnson earned the 2nd highest pass block grade on PFF for the 2022 among draft eligible RBs.
A value in RD 3 of your rookie drafts
🧵THREAD🧵
Everyone likes player comparisons when evaluating talent. We’re guilty of giving prospects well known players as opposed to maybe the best fit stylistically *myself included*
I wanted to give some realistic comps from a college production profile POV.
#NFLDRAFT2023
🧵MICHAEL MAYER THREAD🧵
I feel the need to go to bat for Michael Mayer a bit. He’s been attacked for:
☘️lack of athleticism
☘️failure to separate
☘️inability to produce YAC
Yet the guy has done absolutely nothing except be an absurdly productive TE for 3 consecutive seasons
Bucky Irving comes in as my RB4 in the 2024 NFL Draft class
Good agility, keeps his legs moving constantly with good COD ability
A versatile chess piece that can line up across the formation out wide and in the slot
My player comp is Giovani Bernard
Incoming FCS transfer Matthew Sluka is a baller and should be garnering more national attention
He is tailor made for the “go-go”offense at UNLV
6’2.5”
220lbs
4.54 40 yard dash
119” broad jump
36” vertical
Don’t be surprised to see Sluka’s name during the 2025 NFL Draft cycle.
The last time Javonte Williams met Kansas City in prime time he went for:
23 carries
102 rushing yards
6 RECs
76 REC YDs
1 REC TD
RB1 overall on the week finish
Here’s to Javonte Williams getting right this week
Every year, a RB is pushed up rankings because they are a perceived starter for their team and could earn a huge workload
2022:
Chase Edmonds
2021:
Mike Davis
Darrell Henderson
2020:
Kenyan Drake
TGIII
2019:
Kerryon Johnson
2018:
Shady
Alex Collins
🧵ANTHONY RICHARDSON🧵
What hasn’t been said about Anthony Richardson yet? Arm of Uncle Rico, rivaled in athleticism only by Cam Newton at the QB position.
AR has the ability to break fantasy. It’s indisputable. More AR stuff ⬇️