Bud Davis
@JBudDavis
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Environmental & Geophysics Consulting | Co-Host @GatorsGameday | CFB Analytics 🏆 1st Place - 2021 SIS Data Analytics Challenge
Joined June 2020
📊How I Perform Opponent Adjustments. ▫️Treat each play as a unique matchup.▫️Use Ridge Regression to solve play's resulting EPA given the Offense, Defense, & league-wide homefield advantage.▫️FBS vs FBS games only.▫️Method & code below:.
blog.collegefootballdata.com
"The biggest variable in football is the fact that each team plays a different schedule against teams of disparate quality." - Football Outsiders "They ain't played nobody Pawllllllll." - SEC...
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Sadly, @SethVarnadore & I won't be able to do @GatorsGameday this season. While we thoroughly enjoyed producing the pod, it just isn't in the cards for us to deliver it again this year. I'll try to be good about posting the advanced stats here & hopefully we can pod again one day.
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🍡FSU (UCF Proxy - Malzahn). ▫️Above avg offense.▫️RPOs + QB Runs.▫️Good Early Downs (Rushing + PA).▫️Poor Gold Zone Late Downs (poor passing + sacks).▫️Loves a slant route
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Those are all extremely weak relationships. The short answer is that there isn't a special playcall or playbook you can implement to make your offense good.
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"Best" Statistical Relationships. ▫️All Play EPA/play + PA rate: R2 of 0.09.▫️Pass EPA/play + RA rate: R2 of 0.08.▫️Rush EPA/play + PA rate: R2 of 0.07.▫️Rush Succ Rt + Deep Pass rate: R2 of 0.06.▫️Rush Succ Rt + Motion rate: R2 of 0.04
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Short Answer = NO. Almost all playcalling variables (personnel, RPO, tgt distribution, blocking scheme) have little to no relationship with success. Usage alone doesn't determine success.
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📊What Scheme Works Best in CFB?. Lots of people online like to talk about how their team needs to run a particular scheme to be successful. But is there statistical evidence for particular offensive tendencies to drive success in CFB?.
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🟧Tennessee. ▫️Above avg offense.▫️Gap rushing + Wide Tgts.▫️Good Early Downs (Gap + PA).▫️Struggled Late Downs in RZ (sacks + avg passing).▫️Go route bonanza
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🦈Ole Miss. ▫️Good offense.▫️11 personnel, PA, Wide Tgts + Inside rushing.▫️Exceptionally good Early Downs (those PA numbers).▫️Struggled Early Downs in RZ (esp rushing).▫️Inside Zone heavy
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🐈Kentucky. ▫️Below average offense.▫️12 personnel + QB rushing.▫️Poor Early Down team (except for Slot tgts).▫️Good Late & Short, lots of QB runs.▫️Big Drag route team
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🐶UGA. ▫️Above average offense.▫️12 personnel + surprisingly mediocre rushing.▫️Good at Short yardage (run game steps up + scramble city).▫️Very poor at Late & Med (except for the Wide tgts).▫️ High rate of Screen passes
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🔔Miss St. ▫️Avg offense.▫️Lots of 11 personnel and bad sack numbers.▫️Bad at Late & Med (so many sacks, zero PA).▫️Good in Red Zone late (lotta RPOs).▫️More Curls than Shirley Temple
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👍TAMU. ▫️Avg offense.▫️12 personnel + Gap Blocking.▫️Poor at Late & Short (esp when running QB).▫️Good in Red Zone late (gap runs to outside).▫️ Unusually high usage of Sweeps
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🤠Texas. ▫️Above avg offense.▫️12 personnel + killer deep passing game.▫️Well balanced on Early Downs (PA + Motion).▫️Really struggle Late & Med (sacks + scrambles).▫️Love a Deep Cross
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🐯Miami (FL). ▫️Very good offense.▫️Heavy use of inside run game.▫️Phenomenal at Late & Long (esp throwing wide).▫️Some struggles Late in the RZ.▫️Very high IZ usage
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🐯LSU. ▫️Above avg offense.▫️Pass a lot & run inside.▫️Really good on Late & Med (esp passing).▫️Poor performance inside the Gold Zone (<10).▫️IZ, Power, or Counter run game
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🐂USF. ▫️Below avg offense.▫️Light personnel & gap run game.▫️Atrocious on Early Downs.▫️Great at Late & Long, esp Screens & Deep Shots.▫️Love the Dig route
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Why I think J-Mike puts up career-best numbers at UF. ▫️He's a big, fast, true X.▫️Best QB he's played with.▫️UF's most explosive pass plays are built for him.▫️Billy has already done it before with Shorter
@Splenda_Daddy79 I do think J-Mike will do well in Billy's system and put up career bests. He's a true X and this offense uses that well (eg Shorter). our most likely WR1-3.▫️EW3: injury issues & no downfield threat.▫️J-Mike: needs to show vast improvement.▫️Mizell: middling numbers in '24.
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I THINK Florida struggles on Late Downs because:. 1. Playbook: concepts are explosive counterpunches that build off run, not first down chasers.2. Predictability: too predictable in usage of concepts like Spacing.3. Practice: Not enough reps for high leverage situations.
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I think 2 of these bullet points are much more likely than the other.
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