Morty
@ItsProbablyLuck
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Moonlighting as a special situations investor
Joined November 2011
Nearly half of outstanding shares of $LNW traded today driven by heavy index selling and the stock was down... < 4%? Not the obvious trade I was expecting
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Although why the 20% discount to VWAP? If Malone wanted this to himself, he could use a strike above market price right?
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$GLIBK The tax asset created from the step-up basis needs earnings to monetize. You need M&A to get the earnings. You need cash to do M&A. Many rights offerings don't turn out well, but monetizing tax assets generally works well for shareholders (think NOL shells)
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$MAGN debt spreads up >250bps in the past month. This is what is driving the stock down, not year end tax selling.
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$CAL removed from the S&P Smallcap index this week. There is clear forced selling, but revenue has been declining and management's plan to cut costs paired with a recent acquisition doesn't seem like a compelling turnaround story to me
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What a warning. I can't believe $FNMA was only down 5% on this
IMPORTANT FOR ANYONE INTERESTED IN Fannie Mae. Please read the full risk sections that Fannie Mae has listed in their 10-K. https://t.co/h9EWaIPpL1
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I love this strategy 1) It backtests well even with a few losers 2) There are a few uplistings every year on average 3) It is clear why it works Despite his following I assure you almost no one will screen for these regularly like he suggests. It's boring!
Monitoring uplistings is a great way to identify inflecting comeback stories that are "off limits" to larger Institutional Investors. Here's how to source and vet them, along with a niche setup in software that has caught my eye.
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$BBBY Marcus Lemonis led turnaround with ex-meme ticker will dividend warrants next week struck at $15.50. Collection of defunct household names + Overstock crypto assets. Could be interesting?
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Revisiting $MAGN after its Nov ’24 spin forced index selling. Insiders bought in May/June around $12-15, and it joined the Russell 3000 in June. But fundamentals have lagged. Management cut EBITDA guidance in May. Patience required, or time to move on?
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$GLIBK likely in a blackout period for Directors including Malone. Don't expect more insider purchases until post-Q3 earnings
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S&P SmallCap rebalancing takes effect Monday Sept 22 at the open, so expect funds to sell this Friday. While you might expect removed stocks to be bargains, over the past 3 years they’ve outperformed the index by only ~1.2% over 3 months post-removal. Not that interesting...
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John Malone said in June $GLIBK should trade at a premium to $CHTR (then 7x EV/EBITDA). He’s been buying under $36. A 7x multiple = 50%+ upside, downside supported by Malone. Shares may face pressure from LBRDK arb selling (hard to prove) + Starlink comp concerns
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Associated Capital ($ACGP, formerly $AC) moved from NYSE to OTC on Friday. A collection of investments + a small money management business, it trades at ~71% of book value here despite consistent capital returns via share repurchases. Forced selling likely a factor
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BBX Capital’s super-voting Class B shares $BBXIB are trading at $9...over 150% premium to Class A $BBXIA, despite being 1:1 convertible. Unusual volume, no news. Recently deregistered 🤔
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$SPLP-PA got dumped by $PFF at the close yesterday as it moved to OTC. YTM went into the high teens for a low risk preferred. Still cheap today, but the K-1...
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$IRWD seeing technical selling pressure from S&P small-cap funds with $CALF ETF exiting a substantial position on Friday. Delinquent 10-K may invite a delisting notice from Nasdaq which could eventually bring even more selling from passive holders. Valuation seems interesting.
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