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@Investindia6
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IIFT(IB) 2009-11 batch| Cotton Trader| Value Investor| Loves Delhi in the rain | I eat data for BLD|
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#shaktipumps
got a big boost with the announcement in budget that state govt will provide 8.5 lakh pumps.
Farmers will get 95% subsidy. This is not a small announcement.
8.5 lakh pumps means 25000 cr opportunity. Yes 25000 cr. Imagine what it means for shakti pumps which has
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Shakti pumps continues to perform super.
as of 15th june the no of pumps installed has crossed 14000 so already more than installed in entire Q4.
The co is maintaining its 42% share in the pumps installed in the country.
At this rate, it should be able to install 17-18k
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#Shaktipumps
is unstoppable.
on 15th june they had installed 14228 pumps
on 21st june the installed no stands at 16147.
that is 1919 pumps installed in 6 days or >300 pumps per day.
15th june
21st june
they should be able to easily do 18k pumps installation at the min for
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Keep an eye on 8th july for that is when the 35,000 pumps tender of solar pumps installation by Haryana govt will be opened if everything goes on schedule.
#SHAKTIPUMPS
will be a big beneficiary of this. This is roughly a 1200 cr tender. So even if it gets 30%, it would add mean
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Big positive for both
#sahajsolar
(sahaj solar) &
#shaktipumps
.
First of all, this is regarding 1500 cr tender of solar pumps in Rajasthan State for 50,000 pumps.
Finally has tender has moved from bids to financial evaluation. The tender is for installting pumps ranging from
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#Shaktipumps
getting massively attractive on valuations.
FY24-25 estimates
Revenue-3000 cr
PAT-600 cr
EPS 300
CMP-2500
PE= 8.3
FY23-24 revenues is 1371 cr so why will the revenues jump 2.1 X. Because in God we trust and everyone else has to bring the data.
So let's look at
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#SHAKTIPUMPS
maintains the same min 40% share
in solar pump installation in July.
The recent 558 cr tender win in UP is just the start.
If there will be a solar pump tender then
#shaktipumps
will get a good allocation.
And to top it all, there is 2 lac pumps in component C
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People are talking of Solex energy, Waaree as the biggest themes in solar panel mfg. To me, Insolation enery is most undervald. So, i got the Jun month solar cell import data for India wich confirmed my bias. Insolation grp imported 17 cr worth of solar cells(check screeshot)
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Q1 is over. Let's look at the solar pumps installed in the country and what
#shaktipumps
achieved.
Firstly, the below data does not include numbers from Madhya Pradesh.
Now,
#shaktipumps
installed 16,000 pumps in Q1 of FY24-25.
This was a market share of 43% only for these
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#Crownlifters
Limited- A gem in the making. If you want to play the Renewable Energy theme and own a significantly undervalued stock then
#crownlifters
is the right one. Co provides Cranes on Rental but mainly focused on renewable energy.
In FY23-24, the co invested 60 cr
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1-7th July
#shaktipumps
solid performance continues. Maintaining 54% share in all India solar pumps installation.
Shakti pumps already installed 2100 pumps in 7 days or 300 pumps per day. This is incredible speed of execution.
#shaktipump
#ina
#inasolar
#alpexsolar
#alpex
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And such a big boost to
#Shaktipumps
in the budget. The new budget clearly highlights 2 lac solar pumps to be installed under component C of PM kusum scheme. This is the first time that this has been announced.
In the previous budget (2023-24) only 2.5 lacs solar pump under
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#NPST
is a giant in making. The trailing PE of 151 doesn't matter. Yes just doesn't. Let's look at data to understand this.
In the financial value chain apart from banks, customer, payment app, there is a technology service provider(TSP) and there are only 6 cos including NPST.
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#shaktipumps
q1 revenue excellent.
PAT margin improved to 16.3% vs people expecting EBITDA to be 15%.
From solar pumps installation data we got 16001 pumps installed in Q1.
Co installed 14785 pumps as per their own investor presentation.
So no of pumps installed is more even
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There is a digital co which claimed to have 1500 cr order for digging roads.
then the co said that its share of revenue is only 1/3rd because the original contract was given to its JV partner.
the name of JV partner is OSR teleservices. But who is this co?
they operate in a
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#insolationenergy
continues to fire on all cylinders.
After a dip in April imports of solar cells at 13 lacs, the May 24 imports have picked up sharply to 73.6 lacs.
With improved ratio of 1 cr cells=200 cr revenues, the 1st 2 months revenue should stand at 173 cr.
A monthly
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As per Ministry of Renewable Energy, they want to Install 500GW of renewable energy by 2030. Let's see hone kya vaala hai, because panel manufacturer margins are going to explode thru the roof.
Solar capacity by 2030:270GW(out of 500)
Solar capacity Jan 24: 73 GW(70 maan lo)
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While many ppl are focused on KPI green, Inox wind, KP energy, Suzlon, let's look at one step before in the chain- that is solar module mfg cos. In this space, Insolation energy can be a real 5 to 10 bagger. Below are my reasons for the same.
A thread. 🧵
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Today is
#shaktipumps
result. Although I have recently started tracking this co- it looks very very promising.
I was not aware earlier that the solar pumps sector is booming so much. I don't think anyone fully grasps what is about to happen in this sector.
The govt has target
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#shaktipumps
latest investor presentation is very interesting. They have released the no of solar pumps installed by the co in the Jan to March 24 quarter.
Very very interesting: The total no of solar pumps installed in Jan-Mar quarter All India was 30068, of this Shakti pumps
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Based on last 6 months SME IPO's, we can see how are the companies performing in terms of manpower changes.
All the below data is from EPFO websites and not all IPOs's are covered.
But very interesting results.
Some IPO's who have perfomed very well are not showing any growth
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Let us look at SKY GOLD. A co mfg jewellery on contract for Malabar,Kalyan,Senco etc. In talks with Tanishq too.
Co is valued at 300 cr mcap with 1150 cr sales but low margin biz. OPM 4-5% so why is it interesting? Coz the co can grow to 4500 cr sales in 2-3 yrs.
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Massive boost for
#Shaktipumps
With the latest available data of pumps installed in All India()
The installation of solar pumps has broken all records in the month of June 24.
If we compare on quarterly basis pumps installed
FY23-24 Q3: 21k
FY 23-24 Q4:
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#Shaktipumps
export revenue for Q1 is 62 crores.
This is fantastic performance on the export front after a massive domestic pumps installation.
On a country level, Uganda is their biggest market.
With this data, the Q1 revenue should definitely be close to 750-850 crores.
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#E2Enetworks
came with a super set of nos. This is the only data centre stock which is actually a data centre stock. Rest are just in the air proxies.
Despite the high dep n finance cost , net profit margin is 25%.
Highest ever sales at 41 cr n profits at 10 cr.
Many people
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Some random person commented that solar panel prices have dropped by 75% in 1 year. if anyone say anything, dont believe without looking at real data.
import per unit prices of solar panel in India (hsn code 85414300), freely available data on commerce ministry.
there is no 75%
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Monsoon so far has little or no impact on
#shaktipumps
1st-3rd July
shakti pumps installed 683 pumps or 49% market share all India.
This is still early days for Q2 but a very good start. At this rate they will continue to install 20k pumps in Q2 but i expect due to monsoon the
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Finally, the mega expansion of Insolation energy is confirmed. Co was at 700-750 MW capacity and has increased capacity to 1250-1300 MW.
#InsolationEnergy
has become a Gigafactory.
Revenues will cross 1000 cr and co will do between close to 1500 cr in FY 24-25. Again growing
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Studying Diamines & Chemicals.
Sales 110 cr, Mcap 660 cr, EPS 53, PE 15.
NPM 30-40%
This co. is looking set for high growth in next 3-5 years.
their production capacity is 220 mt/month. Co. is doing expansion of 80 cr which will take their prod capacity to 2220 mt/month
1/3
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If we were to compare most of the renewables cos like ahasolar, solex, gensol, websol etc, all of them are valued at 3-30x multiple of sales.
And we apply the same metric to insolation energy- for FY24 sales of 600 cr, its current valuation of 855 cr is just 1.5 times. This
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#macfos
(). This is a very interesting co.
A bit of background- the co started in 2011 to make Chapati making machine. This biz shut down in 2013.
Then the promoters started selling robotic parts to teams participating in their college event Robocon for 2
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#kpigreen
continues to surprise. I don't know what is the panic that people have.
No. of employees in March have crossed 200 and stands at 216. Look at the addition from Jan 24. The growth is just crazy.
And how many people actually went and read the investor presentation. The
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Thread on Urban Enviro Waste Management LTD
A small co based in Nagpur which has more emp. than Antony waste management.
This co. has shockingly increased workforce by 3.5 times in 6 months (673 to 2373 employees). I think it has huge potential. ALL emp get PF also!
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Today, we will look at a business:
1) Huge moat in a sector with no entry barrier
2) Growing at 40-60% annually,
3) Available at 1 year forward PE of 15 & 2 year Forward PE of 8 (thanks
@bahirwani_rohit
)
4) Some twitter handles >50k followers tweeted but they added 0 value to
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Market will take time to value KPI green correctly.
Suzlon sales 6000 cr loss 2000 cr
Inox sales 700 cr loss 700 cr
Sterling Wilson sales 2000 cr loss 1200 cr
Kpigreen sales 1000 cr profit 200 cr.
Valuation of kpi 25-50% of others. Or 2-3x from CMP upside in kpi green.
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so ALMM is finally mandatory from Monday 1st April 2024.
GoI gave a big news as well as big shock. Even private rooftop and open access projects were not exempted and now have to buy modules from ALMM approved manufacturers. This is the biggest news for the module makers. The
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Waaree energies ipo is coming. Co to list at 10000 cr mcap+
Revenues 1953 cr, profits 39 cr
Insolation energy
Revenues 700 cr profits 45 cr
Insolation energy market cap just 1500 cr. At these comparisons, insolation energy should be worth 5000 crs.
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#kpigreen
is a buy at these levels. I can understand the correction in markets but this is an opportunity to load up on kpi green.
Someone who interacted with mgmt told me that Q3 is going to be the ever quarter by far in cos history by a big margin.
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KPI green 1 order is now 74mw or 300 cr. to be completed in fy24-25.
equal to fy 23 1 quarter revenue : )
abhi to FY24-25 shuru hua hai.
#kpigreen
#waaree
#kpeenergy
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Great performance by Insolation Energy continues every month. January 24 turns to be best month so far.
With 26 cr of solar cell imports, it is growing every month especially with the no of cells imports growing and per cell cost coming down.
This will reflect in the growing
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KPI Green- listened to the concall. Most people asked repititve questions about IPP/CPP revenue breakups- future orders, margins etc. All this info already available in investor presentation. best question was asked at 44th minute. The co is going to start
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Diamines & Chemicals is doing 50 times expansion of prod. cap. from 200 mt to 10,000 tons.
But its very rare to see a honest co do what they say. What a grt mgmt who put full details out.
6 prod selling
58 new prod with info of each prod.
salute to dem.
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#KPIGREEN
results tomorrow can be very surprising.
If we go back and check how much revenue co is generating per employee then from jul 22 to mar 23 so 3 straight quarters,KPI GREEN was averaging 2 cr revenue per emp.
From the beginning of FY 23-24, they accelerated the
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#npst
has fulfilled the time rule to move into mainboard on August 10th.
Now no of shareholders and paid up capital criteria remains. Shareholder criteria also as per co is fulfilled.
Paid up criteria will be fulfilled by QIP. The co already announced 23 lacs share QIP on july
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Insolation Energy Esop is a non event. on 1 cr existing shareholding, 2 LAC shares would be an impact of just 2%. I would not give importance to this at all.
it continues to remain the most undervalued and promising solar panel mfg co in listed space.
H1 revenues were 278 cr,
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Blessed to have listened to the webinar by Manish ji from Insolation energy.
With capacity to be 3GW by end of calendar year 24, the revenues of 1400-1500 cr in Fy 24-25 and 3000 cr in Fy 25-26 is confirmed.
Mgmt was pretty conservative on the margins. They will end up
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Insolation energy strong performance continues. In december, the import of solar cells is up 13%. cost per unit is almost similar. the co would be close to 210-220 cr revenues in 1st 3 months or looking to clock 420 cr of revenues in 1st 6 months although it does suggest that
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Insolation energy leads the pack of SME IPO gainers.
With current capacity at 1.2GW and by end of March 25, the total capacity will be 3GW, the co is still big time undervalued.
H1 FY 24- 278 cr PAT 15 cr
FY 24 725-750 cr, PAT 55-60 cr EPS 30
FY 24-25 1500 cr PAT 150 cr, EPS 75
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Insolation energy confirms that FY23-24 revenue was 739 cr and March 24 revenue exceeded 100 cr at 104 cr.
With this, co confirmed doubling of revenue for FY24-25 at 1500 cr. Great achievement.
#insolationenergy
,
#inasolar
,
#waaree
,
#kpigreen
#solexenergy
#alpexsolar
Insolation energy maintains cost leadership again.
This is the difference when mgmt is run by ambitious and dedicated promoters.
#INSOLATIONENERGY
has always been the lowest cost solar cell producer in India. And its not just 1 month, it happens every month.
Even in March 24,
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i noticed an interesting trend regarding
#orianapower
the margins both operating and net profits have been expanding, initially the tax rate was high but last 2.5 years the tax rate has also stabilised.
operating margins have touched 18% and net profits margins are about 9% in
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#E2ENETWORKS
consolidating with increased volume.
last 30 days calendar chart,volume peaks are good.
clearly shows people booking profits in short term.
Yesterday was 3rd highest volume day,today can be higher that that.
Some consolidation happening.
next leg of growth should
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I have just finished my interaction with Insolation energy sales ofc in Delhi. Met with Mr. Vineet Tyagi who is head of sales.
Main takeaways
1) 500 mw new line will be coming in 4 will be topcon tech.
2) order placed for machinery. Team going to china
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Pipe industry is getting bigger but who is the winner.
There are 2 players who can & one of them will seriously challenge Ratnamani metals and tubes in 3 years.
Let's see.
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Lets look at Lactose India Ltd. This will be a very interesting co.
Lactose India makes Lactulose and Lactose monohydrate. This is an excipient mainly used in Pharma sector. There are 2 other cos in similar space
Sigachi
Accent Microcell
However, Sigachi and Accent Microcell
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Game changing initiative by haryana govt. Now farmers can directly choose which co they want for solar pump installation.
This will hugely benefit
#shaktipumps
&
#oswal
as they are the only 2 cos with own mfg. Word of mouth for shakti pumps in haryana is in my view the
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Insolation energy is not only performing better but expanding margins.
When I looked at Nov solar imports, the total value was 15 cr vs 21 cr in Oct, so thought revenue will be down. But the real deal is quantity imported.
Insolation energy imported similar quantity at a lower
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#vmarc
exceeded all expectations and results came in close to what we expected (390 cr vs 350 cr) since capex was so high.
Now with 1,69,020 km of capacity even at 50% utilization the revenue will be 800 cr for full year. The way power sector is growing , you should expect the
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Let's look at Utssav CZ. This co will declare its annual result for FY23-24 on 28th August. But the result is already out and what a result it is.
The result can be found in the latest credit rating report.
Although it is provisional but there will not be
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Insolation energy maintains cost leadership again.
This is the difference when mgmt is run by ambitious and dedicated promoters.
#INSOLATIONENERGY
has always been the lowest cost solar cell producer in India. And its not just 1 month, it happens every month.
Even in March 24,
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Tender khulega to milega.
With 5 months affected due to election n all, now 12 month tendering has to happen in 7 months.
will see massive tender wins from Shakti pumps in all states including UP, Punjab, Rajasthan and Maharashtra.
biggest benefit is now 2 big tenders of
Shakti Pumps 💥
Tenders for solar water pumps are opening in almost every state i.e. MP, Punjab, Haryana,UP
Now in Maharashtra installation of Rs. 2421 cr
Tender Opening Date - 12/08/2024 9:00 PM
Tender Closing Date - 02/09/2024 2:55 PM
@AdeptMarket
@sudb1986
@Investindia6
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With ALMM, the opportunity for local panel makers has increased substantially.
To undetstand this, let's look at export n import of solar panels
From Apr23 till Jan 24, the
1. Export of panels (not cells) was 12,000 cr
Import of panels (not cells) was 28,700 cr
the imports
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Wti cabs revenue at 409 cr for Fy 23-24. From epfo data we predicted 410 cr.
Co plans to induct 1000 ev vehicles with capex of 50cr.
600cr+ revenue on track for fy 24-25.
#wticabs
#waaree
#kpigreen
#inasolar
Today, we will look at a business:
1) Huge moat in a sector with no entry barrier
2) Growing at 40-60% annually,
3) Available at 1 year forward PE of 15 & 2 year Forward PE of 8 (thanks
@bahirwani_rohit
)
4) Some twitter handles >50k followers tweeted but they added 0 value to
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5
8
65
Great news coming for DDev plastiks. India's biggest wire compounder manufacturer. Jhunjhunwala, pidilite, welspun all meeting the mgmt for potential investment opportunity. At 2500 cr sales, co is valued at just 1600 cr. Margin expansion going on.
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I don't think Insolation energy will be really affected by the so called DRI investigation against six firms.
as per old data, there are 5 slabs , 0%, 12%, 18%, 43% and 50% of duty paid. If any evasion will happen it should happen in 0% slab.
in 0% slab there is , Waaree,
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this is totally illegal n fraud
@SEBI_India
this person
@Sudheep8531
is running a ponzi scheme.
misguiding and charging money when he is not even a registred financial advisor. A formal scores complaint has also been filed with his name n contact details.
take action against
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KPI GREEN. What makes a co. Great apart from growth is honest mgmt. Mgmt quality is most underrated quality to assess a co but most important. KPI GREEN promoter buys shares from dividend irrespective of price. We should be thankful for various reasons:
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with renewables, lets look at the ancillary industries like transformers. I selected 5 names. what the below tells me is that the asset required to generate sales in transformers is not big. for example Apar can generate 10x sales from asset. same with star delta
it also tells
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Let's look at Renaissance Global. This co i believe has significant upside potential. A simple metric- it has same operating margin as other branded jewellers but still trades at a significant discount. It is discounted for some reasons and it can quickly turnaround. I
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Almost 21 cr worth of shares traded in Insolation energy in 3 days.
Big jump in volumes and 100% delivery. Some big investors have entered.
Power n renewables sector growing multifold. Feeling sad for those who sold too early. Such opportunities are rare.
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Let us look at Brand Concepts. This is not an unknown co but can be a great co in the making.
Their biz can be clubbed as a travel gear co similar to VIP and Safari.
They started growing post covid and firing on all cylinders. Mgmt guided for 35% CAGR growth and become a 500 cr
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@mehtasahil
pmkusum state portal websites. have to go each state portal, download all district files (6 states means more than 200 excel files) and then look for data. lot of grunt work but not a problem.
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@Sudheep8531
are u literally crazy?
looked at balance sheet, cash flow. no of employees?
no of employees is 2.
working capital cycle is 333 days. when they filed for IPO, they had a debt of 17 cr. they took ipo money to resolve working capital matter, not for capital expansion.
promoter
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First thing I visited in NYC.
#kpigreen
#waaree
#ina
#inasolar
#shaktipumps
#insolationenergy
#investing
#renewables
#nyse
#chargingbull
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Insolation energy good run continues.
August import no is at 11 cr of solar cells.
Apr to August import no is now 71 cr and based on the cell to panel ratio, sales will be around 210-220 cr for 5 months. Therefore, can expect 6 month sales to be closer to 240-250 cr.
Although,
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For
#KPIgreen
, we should assume the same ratio of revenue/employee count.
Historically, the ratio is close to 2-2.1.
Q4 is strongest quarter and if
#KPENERGY
result is anything to go by,
#KPIGREEN
result should also be bumper.
Athough March 24 employee count is not out yet,
#KPIGREEN
results tomorrow can be very surprising.
If we go back and check how much revenue co is generating per employee then from jul 22 to mar 23 so 3 straight quarters,KPI GREEN was averaging 2 cr revenue per emp.
From the beginning of FY 23-24, they accelerated the
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Accumulation again going on in
#INSOLATIONENERGY
I divided the time frames into 4 day gaps. From mid feb till now, every week the no of shares bot has gone up week on week. Especially in last week of feb.
Promoter group also bot stake although minor on
7th feb
15th feb
20th
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18th march- revenue would be 1500 cr ,with yearly 130 cr.
23rd march- vo ek call ke baad- revenue will be 500-800 cr with booked only once in 3 years.
Promoter ko 4 mahina kaam nahi karna.
Margin Kam bhi ho sakta hai. No guarantee.
Ab Paise chahiye to AI AI AI bol do.
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Insolation energy dream run continues
As per september imports , insolation group (energy+green energy) imported 16 cr of solar cells.
Now Apr is 17 cr (not in below data) plus May to Sep is 72 cr. So 6 months solar cell import is 89 cr.
The total revenue should be 3x or 267 cr
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Kpi green valuation is 2640 cr.
The renewables sector has very few cos which are profitable. KPI green is the most profitable of all and most undervalued. Most ppl wud look at 3-6 month return n sell out. Real wealth will be made in 5 yrs. Need to learn to stay invested.
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Insolation energy finally announced the H1 result to be declared on 8th November. My expectation is 277 cr sales and 27 cr profits. We will see.
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top 2 picks in this sector
Venus Pipes
Hariom Pipes
Venus pipes rsult exceeded all expectations
Operating profit: 19.6%
profit margins : 11%
best ever quarter.
Pipe industry is getting bigger but who is the winner.
There are 2 players who can & one of them will seriously challenge Ratnamani metals and tubes in 3 years.
Let's see.
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KPI green big interview. listen between 9th-10th minutes. Current orderbook is 1800MW or 7200 cr. This is going to be huge news for the things to come. KPI green also eligible to bid for govt EPC projects. 1 govt order itself can be 500+cr.
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KPEL or KP energy..what a great growth plan.
co. had 100 cr of o/s loan as of 31-mar-23.
co. took 93 cr of new loan for biz expansion.
so co. sees opp. doubling or more. No words to thank the vision n grtness of mgmt. never took a penny out of biz. focus on investor wealth only.
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Big announcement by insolation to add 3GW more. I think the capacity is already 1.3GW and not 950 MW. So expansion is already happening.
ENTERING THE SOLAR SYSTEM
At the SNEC Expo in Shanghai, we were grateful to meet Manish Guptaji - Industry leader and CMD of Insolation Energy (INA, MCap 5400cr) - one of India's fastest growing solar module manufacturing company.
He was kind enough to let us record him (link
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Big boost to insolation energy as ALMM mandatory from April 1 2024.
The module prices will definitely increase and with lower cell prices, the module makers are in sweet spot since margins will expand.
The co already announced plans for expanding
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Innocent and uninformed retail investors are losing money due to some vested interests from twitter handles with significant following.
First, look at the below ppt. This presentation was made in the top 20 investment ideas on 2nd march 24 in Mumbai .Even the legendary Vijay
Insolation Energy: Capitalizing on the $200 Billion Solar Opportunity
It was an honor presenting at
@cvocain
Investocraft 20-20 alongside other market experts sharing insightful stock ideas!
We discussed the Solar Market - a segment we believe will be a major boom in the Indian
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Insolation energy going strong while Solex Energy is still lagging.
July imports of solar cells for Insolation energy group is 11cr while Solex is just 4 cr. From Apr to July the monthly imports by Insolation has been 17+17+17+11= 62 cr. 3x sales means 185 cr of revenues.
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Insolation energy 2nd 500mw plant seems to have started taking shape. Co has registered a 2nd firm in the name of Insolation green energy.
Also, current factory address where Insolation green energy is located - behind that they have taken 3 land plots also.
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Ppl r watching India's renewable story unfold and still many are on sidelines. No one even consider this as a sector. The renewables energy sector after 10 yrs will be at another level.
Not buying a rnwble energy biz is not an option.
kpi green
Kp energy
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@HeenaSidhu10
Don't give excuses. Every 4 years we only get that. what is the use of being world champion when u can't win in Olympics. So don't defend. The whole shooting team should be sent back and never compete again
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