Ian Gutterman
@InformedByIan
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Informing people about insurance, investing, and more. Protecting tail risk since 1995.
Joined February 2022
I see a lot of people reacting to State Farm’s decision to stop writing new home insurance in California. But there seems to be a lot of confusion about their motives. The last thing State Farm wants to do is give up business. Here’s why State Farm felt they had to act. 1/12.
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Best day since 2008 is not something to celebrate. The market went down another 30% over the next few months. Doesn't mean will happen again but giant moves in bear markets are normal and not usually a sign of the bottom.
Dow surges 2,900 points, S&P 500 posts biggest gain since 2008 on Trump tariff reversal
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I've said for a long time passthrough is egregious. You wouldn't believe the size of HR, marketing, IT, etc. There's no limit on hiring because someone else pays and they don't complain. Maybe Elon should forget about USAID and focus on hedge fund reckless spending???.
"Hedge Funds Are Pocketing Much of Their Clients’ Gains With ‘No Limit’ Fees". "In 2023, the main hedge fund at billionaire Dmitry Balyasny’s eponymous firm notched a gross return of 15.2%. Investors walked away with a gain of just 2.8%. The rest they paid in fees — more than
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RT @NFL_Memes: If Patrick Mahomes had Allstate instead of State Farm, maybe he'd be protected from mayhem like this
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Great article on what went wrong at State Farm. Confirmed much of what I've heard over the years. Biggest issue is there was a rogue state manager who prioritized appeasing the agents over underwriting profits. It's amazing how easily one bad employee can damage a big company.
State Farm aggressively grew in Los Angeles, despite getting overweight on fire risk, but decided to cut thousands of policies last year, adding to California’s home-insurance crisis
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This is like selling all your $NVDA two years ago just before AI was announced. It's not going to age well for Dallas.
BREAKING: The Dallas Mavericks are trading Luka Doncic, Maxi Kleber and Markieff Morris to the Los Angeles Lakers for Anthony Davis, Max Christie and a 2029 first-round pick, sources tell ESPN. Three-team deal that includes Utah.
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Not sure what is going on with the algo but below was shadow banned last night (22 views?) so trying again as this is big news. State Farm posted a $8B loss for the fires, well above expectations.
@insiderils is reporting State Farm has a $8B wildfire loss!!!. That is well above their reinsurance cover and surely a record loss for them. Imagine how much worse it would be if they had NOT canceled all those homes?. Be mad at them if you want but they made the right call.
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This would not be insider trading and Bill knows it. They didn't have direct info on $NVDA. I would argue it is far worse to short a stock in size before you put out a "short report" that you know will tank the stock, even when the report is often largely fabricated.
What are the chances that @deepseek_ai’s hedge fund affiliate made a fortune yesterday with short-dated puts on @nvidia, power companies, etc.? A fortune could have been made.
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Don't think I posted this here but I wrote a couple weeks ago what I thought the $EG reserve charge might be based mainly on intuition. "Thus, my very rough, non-actuarially based prediction is the most likely outcome is in the vicinity of $1.5B.". Turns out I can still intuit!
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So if they decide the simplest thing is to reduce position to neutral, that means more selling. It also means the chart gets broken which means. more selling. So it's hard to see the case for buying the dip. PS: This isn't only $NVDA just using them as the poster child.
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The issue for the market here is blind monkey PMs could be overweight $NVDA for so long without any effort. Now, they actually have to think. That alone is a big change. Beyond that, how many really want to step up and buy here? That's career risk. PMs hate career risk!.
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I've got an idea. How about we start suing the government for fire damages instead of utilities?. They are absolutely the prime source of negligence. When they feel the financial pain, they will finally take the threat more seriously.
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It's bad enough they let rowdy militants harass the hostages until the last second but how can you turn them over to the immoral Red Cross that ignored them for nearly 500 days???. What a morally corrupt organization!!! They should be disbanded.
Shame on the Red Cross for being a willing participant in Hamas's despicable theatrics. Parading young Israeli female hostages in front of a mob of militants and local residents who were herded into participating in the spectacle is not only terrible for the women, but it
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Please see below! This is why insurers were leaving CA!. I am not that far from Glencoe and I pay close to $5000 for a home valued far less than the >$3M Palisades average. If the average premium was >$10K insurers wouldn't be leaving. Blame Prop 103 not your insurer!!!
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I should also add I will continue to share what I can on the fires but you should also understand I am looking for names to buy here and I'm not going to tell you what I'm buying ahead of time, so will do my best to be helpful without tipping my hand or touting.
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Interesting note in $MCY release:. I was worried insurers would get hit on back end from FAIR assessments since they weren't covered by reinsurance while keeping the exposure gross would be, but at least for $MCY it appears I was wrong there. This means more loss for reinsurers.
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I'll have more to say on this when I have more time but for those who chose the CA FAIR plan because it was cheaper than private insurance be advised that may not be an option next year. Their finances were perilous before this fire and will likely be in crisis mode after.
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Time to repost and re-pin this.
I see a lot of people reacting to State Farm’s decision to stop writing new home insurance in California. But there seems to be a lot of confusion about their motives. The last thing State Farm wants to do is give up business. Here’s why State Farm felt they had to act. 1/12.
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It's funny most people are reacting to this like State Farm did something wrong. The reality is current events validate their decision to exit since they couldn't charge enough for the risk.
BREAKING: State Farm, one of the biggest insurers in California, canceled hundreds of homeowners' policies last summer in Pacific Palisades—the same area which is now being ravaged by a devastating wildfire, per Newsweek.
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Hey look I'm not the only one who says Dan's Investor Day presentation on telematics was full of fabrications.
carriermanagement.com
Executives speaking at Lemonade's Investor Day event late last month made several statements suggesting that their approaches to personal lines insurance
I didn't hear anything about how their approach to telematics is different from CMT. Sure as hell, didn't hear any reason why it's better than $PGR. Yet, he claims their safer driver would save over $PGR. I would suggest it's likely the opposite. $PGR has much better data.
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