Ilya Strebulaev
@IlyaStrebulaev
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Finance Professor at @Stanford. Founder & Director, Venture Capital Initiative at @StanfordGSB. Startup financing, Silicon Valley, corporate innovation
Stanford
Joined December 2021
Access valuable information on the Venture Mindset now โ sign up for our free newsletter at https://t.co/I7Pj4feu3y Every other week you will receive, directly in your inbox, takeaways from decades of our research and hundreds of interviews with venture capitalists and unicorn
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๐ Did you know nearly HALF of all US unicorn founders were born outside the US?! Stanford Professor @IlyaStrebulaev analyzed 3,000+ unicorns and discovered this incredible statistic. Founders came from 65 countries, with India leading the way, followed by Israel and Canada.
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Are California unicorns different from their non-California counterparts? California unicorns show similar patterns in industry focus and initial valuations. However, they tend to raise more capital and achieve higher exit valuations (largely driven by top performers).
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California's 35-Year Reign as the Unicorn State of America โ and Its Challengers
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Think you need to be in your 20s to start a unicorn company? ๐ฆ Think again. When you hear about legendary founders like Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, or Mark Zuckerberg, you probably picture 20-year old college dropouts building billion-dollar empires in their dorm rooms. But the
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๐ Unicorn Exit Multiples. Peak exit-to-capital ratios happened during the dotcom bubble (163x in 1999). Peak volume hit in 2021 with 150 exits at 15x. More recently, ratios are down to 4-6x.
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Traditional organizations have great intentions โ innovation labs, idea lists, innovators inside. But then? Legal wants reviews, Finance wants models, Marketing fears brand impact. The road to hell is paved with good intentions. Too many cooks, meetings & approvals = not enough
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Honored to have contributed to the Financial Times' fascinating documentary on Sequoia Capital: https://t.co/6goZiz2Evj. Their remarkable 50-year track record speaks volumes โ having backed Apple, Oracle, Cisco, Google, PayPal, Airbnb, YouTube, Instagram, and OpenAI.
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Stanford GSB leads in the number of unicorn founders per 1,000 alumni: 5.7. The top 5 include HBS (4.2), Berkeley Haas (2.8), MIT Sloan (1.7), and Wharton (1.7).
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However, we also had a debate here: some VCs said they would not invest in "douchebags" because "success and wealth can only make you worse." While others responded that they "will lean into douchebags" โ acknowledging that many founders aren't the easiest people around.
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๐ Bet on the Jockey The strength of your team members is everything: if you bring weak team members or weak advisors, that sends a wrong signal.
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๐ง Prepare Your Mind How well do you know your space? VCs quickly identify founders who can't demonstrate deep domain expertise.
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๐ Get Outside the Four Walls Can you sell to a customer you don't know well? This is so crucial that VCs will often ask to be present on sales calls to check for themselves.
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They shared insights about red flags when meeting founding teams โ which perfectly aligned with three of the Venture Mindset principles:
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We have recently welcomed an exceptional panel of VCs to our @StanfordGSB VC class: Alastair Rampell (@a16z ), Nicole Quinn (@lightspeedvp), Nagraj Kashyap (Touring Capital), Sean Jacobsohn (Norwest Venture Partners), Camille Samuels (@Venrock), and Ali Tamaseb (@DCVC) ๐งต
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๐ด Fewer than 1 in 8 unicorns are located in โredโ states that tend to vote Republican. ๐ฆ 88% of US-based, VC-backed unicorns are in โblueโ states that vote for Democrats.
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Unicorn Returns: How Big Are They Really? On average, 8x the capital raised by exit. ย The average capital efficiency by exit type goes like this: IPOs (30x), acquisitions (33x), direct listings (34x), and SPACs (8x).
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There is a 93% correlation between the exit timeline of US unicorns and the divorce timeline of US marriages! Of course, correlation โ causation. But remember, it may be more difficult to divorce your investors than your spouse. #DataScience #Economics #Causation #Correlation
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๐ ๐ฐ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ-๐๐จ๐๐ฎ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐๐๐๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฆ๐จ๐ซ๐ฒ ๐๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ฒ ๐ญ๐ข๐ฆ๐. We spend a lot of time discussing the art and science of investment memos in our Stanford Venture Capital class. In addition to their main goal of helping to make an investment decision,
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