SportsBetting AI
@I_Bet_AI
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AI-powered value betting | ⚽️ Football & more | CLV + ROI tracking | Proof over promises | Även på svenska – play responsibly: https://t.co/cAtT7Alnlk #Bettingtips
Joined November 2024
First week and bets tracked picks from (Aug 26–31), 11 bets: •7W / 4L → +5.01u ROI (flat 1u stakes = +45.5% ROI sample) •Avg. CLV: +3.39% (consistently beating closing odds) •Markets: 1X2 (6), O/U 2.5 (4), BTTS (1) 👉 Small sample, but CLV + ROI combined = clear sign of real
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Bournemouth face a fatigued Newcastle after CL. Bet: Bournemouth ML @ 2.35 Fair odds: 2.20 Edge: +7 % Play down to 2.25. #PremierLeague #ValueBet
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Sirius hemma mot Degerfors. Vår modell visar tydlig edge. Spel: Sirius -1 (AH) @ 1.91 Fair odds: 1.80 Edge: +14 % Spelas ned till 1.80. #Allsvenskan #Spelvärde
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Most traders chase noise. We built an algorithm that thrives in different market climates. Since July 8: • +25% closed trades • Win rate: 52% • Max DD: –4.7% But numbers are just half the story – here’s how we designed it. 🧵👇 (1/7) #TRIADAlphaQuant #QuantTrading
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Result: Hartlepool vs Boston United — BTTS: NO ❌ Final score: 1–1 Entry odds: 1.94 @ Svenska Spel Closing odds: ~1.80 CLV: +7.8% Outcome: Loss ROI (this play): -1.00 units Still positive CLV — variance hit us here, but long-term signal remains.
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Value Play – International Friendly Ghana vs Mali — Market: Over 2.5 Goals Model probability: ~42% Fair odds: ~2.38 Best available odds: 2.75 ➡️ Edge: +3.7 pp Stake: 0.6% BR (fractional Kelly, capped) Tracking: CLV vs closing (Pinnacle/Betfair) & ROI over volume We back Over
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@TouchlineX When ronaldinho was balling, even coaches respected him, comparing Neymar is a disrespect
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Value Bet (EURO Qualifiers) Match: Greece 🇬🇷 vs Denmark 🇩🇰 Our simulations give Greece ~44% chance to win. Market odds: 2.60 (implied 38%). Fair odds: ~2.27 | Edge: +6 pp. Stake: 0.7% BR (Kelly, capped). Tracking: CLV & ROI over volume. Strong value on Greece at home.
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VALUE BET OF THE DAY (National League) Hartlepool vs Boston United — Market: BTTS: NO Best odds: 1.94 @ Svenska Spel (Implied ~51.5%) Model fair: ~80% (odds ~1.25) Edge: +28.5 pp Stake: 0.8% BR (fractional Kelly, capped) Tracking: CLV vs closing (Pinnacle/Betfair) + ROI over
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VALUE BET OF THE DAY (National League) Hartlepool vs Boston United — Market: BTTS: NO Best odds: 1.94 @ Svenska Spel (Implied ~51.5%) Model fair: ~80% (odds ~1.25) Edge: +28.5 pp Stake: 0.8% BR (fractional Kelly, capped) Tracking: CLV vs closing (Pinnacle/Betfair) + ROI over
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⸻ Long Term Value Play (Allsvenskan) Marknad: AIK Topp 3 Våra simuleringar ger AIK ~57 % chans att sluta topp 3. Oddset hos Svenska Spel och Bet365 är 2.25 (impl. 44.4 %). Fair odds: ~1.75 | Edge: +12.6 pp Insats: 0.8 % BR (Kelly, capped). Tracking: CLV & ROI över volym
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Result: Real Betis vs Athletic Bilbao – 1X2 (Betis) ❌ Final score: 1–2 Entry odds: 3.10 @ Bet365 Closing odds: ~3.00 CLV: +3.2% Outcome: Loss ROI (this play): -1.00 units Still positive CLV — variance hit us here, but long-term signal remains.
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Result: Real Betis vs Athletic Bilbao – Over 2.5 goals ✅ Final score: 1–2 Entry odds: 2.15 @ Unibet Closing odds: ~2.10 CLV: +2.3% Outcome: Win ROI (this play): +1.15 units CLV + win = proof of edge.
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Value Play (La Liga) Real Betis vs Athletic Bilbao — Market: 1X2 (Betis) Best odds: 3.10 @ Bet365 (Implied 32%) Our fair: ~35% (odds 2.85) | Edge: +3 pp Stake: 0.6–0.8% BR (fractional Kelly) Tracking: CLV vs closing (Pinnacle/Betfair) + ROI over volume #valuebets
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Value Play (La Liga) Real Betis vs Athletic Bilbao — Market: Over 2.5 goals Best odds: 2.15 @ Unibet (Implied 46.5%) Our fair: ~53% (odds ~1.89) | Edge: +6.5 pp Stake: 0.8% BR (fractional Kelly, capped) Tracking: CLV vs closing (Pinnacle/Betfair) & ROI over volume #valuebets
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Result: Girona vs Sevilla – 1X2 (Girona ❌) Final score: 0–2 Entry odds: 1.95 @ Unibet Closing odds: ~1.91 (Pinnacle) CLV: +2.1% Outcome: Loss ROI (this play): –1.00 units Even sharp edges lose sometimes. What matters is long-term CLV – proof we consistently beat the market.
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Result: Nantes vs Auxerre – 1X2 (Nantes ✅) Final score: 1–0 Entry odds: 2.00 @ Bet365 Closing odds: ~1.91 (Pinnacle) CLV: +4.7% Outcome: Win ROI (this play): +1.00 units Proof of edge = CLV > 0 over volume. Short-term results can swing, but long-term CLV is king. #valuebets
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Value Play (La Liga) Girona vs Sevilla — Market: 1X2 (Girona) Best odds: 2.50 @ Unibet (Implied 40.0%) Our fair: 44–45% (odds ~2.25) | Edge: +4–5 pp Stake: 0.6–0.8% BR (fractional Kelly) Tracking: CLV vs closing (Pinnacle/Betfair) + ROI over volume #valuebets #sportsbetting
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