Gustav Theile
@GustavTheile
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Journalist @faznet. China econ and business correspondent.
Shanghai, China
Joined March 2012
Nach Trumps Zoll-Attacke geht China auf Kuschelkurs mit deutschen Autokonzernen, berichtet F.A.Z.-Korrespondent Gustav Theile @GustavTheile:
faz.net
Peking umwirbt die Chefs von BMW, Mercedes und weiterer Konzerne. In Richtung Trump teilt Präsident Xi aus: „Wenn man eine andere Lampe ausbläst, wird die eigene nicht heller.“
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Ok I can now tweet about it, the most advanced car in history is about to be unveiled. Live thread below.
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By combining tactical retaliation with economic adaptation and diplomatic outreach, China can mitigate immediate impacts while advancing structural reforms to reduce vulnerability to U.S. trade pressures over time. (18/18) END
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- **Global Alliances**: Position China as a defender of globalization, contrasting U.S. protectionism to attract European and Global South partners. (17/x)
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### **Key Considerations** - **Avoid Escalation**: Balance firmness with flexibility to prevent a repeat of the 2018–2020 trade war, which harmed both economies. (16/x)
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- **Supply Chain Resilience**: Develop regional production hubs and stockpile critical goods to insulate against future trade shocks. (15/x)
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### **7. Long-Term Decoupling Mitigation** - **Financial Alternatives**: Promote yuan internationalization and explore alternatives to dollar-dominated trade (e.g., digital currency agreements). (14/x)
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- **Domestic Propaganda**: Frame China’s response as principled yet restrained, emphasizing stability and long-term planning. (13/x)
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### **6. Strategic Messaging** - **Global Narrative**: Highlight U.S. tariffs’ inflationary impact on American consumers and supply chain disruptions, leveraging international media to sway opinion. (12/x)
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### **5. Technological Self-Reliance** - **Innovation Investment**: Prioritize semiconductor, AI, and green tech sectors to reduce dependency on U.S. technology and create high-value exports less vulnerable to tariffs. (11/x)
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- **Currency Management**: Allow moderate yuan depreciation to offset tariff costs, while avoiding overt manipulation accusations. (10/x)
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### **4. Domestic Support Measures** - **Industry Subsidies**: Provide tax breaks, low-interest loans, or R&D funding to sectors hit by tariffs (e.g., electronics, machinery). (9/x)
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- **Domestic Consumption**: Strengthen the "dual circulation" strategy to boost internal demand, reducing reliance on external markets. (8/x)
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### **3. Economic Diversification** - **Market Expansion**: Accelerate trade diversification via the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and deepen ties with the EU, ASEAN, and Belt and Road Initiative partners. (7/x)
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- **Multilateral Frameworks**: File a WTO dispute to challenge the tariffs’ legality, even if resolution is slow, to reinforce a rules-based order and rally international opinion. (6/x)
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### **2. Diplomatic Engagement** - **Negotiation Channels**: Propose bilateral talks to address grievances, potentially reviving aspects of the Phase One deal while pushing for mutual concessions (e.g., easing U.S. tech restrictions in exchange for tariff reductions). (5/x)
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- **Non-Tariff Measures**: Use regulatory tools, such as customs delays, inspections, or export controls on critical materials (e.g., rare earths), to signal resolve without overtly violating trade rules. (4/x)
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### **1. Calibrated Retaliation** - **Targeted Tariffs**: Impose reciprocal tariffs on politically sensitive U.S. exports (e.g., agricultural goods, luxury products, or manufacturing components) to pressure key constituencies while avoiding broad escalation. (3/x)
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In responding to a [potential] 10% tariff imposed by a second Trump administration, China should adopt a multifaceted and strategic approach that balances immediate pragmatism with long-term resilience. Here’s a structured response: (2/x)
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