Why Conflicts Escalate 🧵

📉 As global economic and security challenges intensify, vulnerable regions face growing risks of conflict and social unrest. 🔗Explore the full economic and conflict risk analysis:

With ODA facing 40% cuts, efficiency is critical. Priorities: integrate programs, harmonise requirements, use data for targeting, demonstrate ROI. In this era of constraint, innovation is key to maintaining impact. 📖

By measuring #peace, we can get a data-driven picture of what’s working, what’s not and where we are best placed to direct resources to create the conditions necessary for building more peaceful and resilient societies. Learn more ➡️

There are six countries where the economic cost of violence exceeded 20% of GDP. Afghanistan and Ukraine recorded the highest costs, each exceeding 40% of GDP. Full report:

In this explainer, Chloe Yarnell explores the systemic disparities in global conflict media coverage, shaped by media incentives, economic influence, and audience psychology ➡️

Recognising the conflict escalation factors offers valuable insight not only into how wars evolve, but how they might be prevented or de-escalated through targeted policy, diplomacy, and peacebuilding. Full report:

These escalation dynamics rarely appear in isolation. The most devastating conflicts tend to exhibit several of these factors in combination.

9. Conflict instrumentalisation: Narrative framing plays a critical role in escalation as well. When political elites instrumentalise conflict, using it to mobilise support, suppress dissent, or pursue ideological goals, they increase polarisation and reduce the likelihood of

8. Fratricidal coercion: This is closely tied to the use of fratricidal coercion, where leaders enforce discipline through punishment or fear, even against their own troops, contributing to high casualty rates and extreme tactics.

7. High levels of ethnic exclusion: Social and political structures also shape conflict trajectories. Where ethnic groups are systematically excluded from political power or targeted as threats, violence tends to become more entrenched and indiscriminate. Ethnic exclusion often

6. Private military contractors: In recent years, private military and security companies (PMSCs) have added a new dimension to this dynamic. These actors often operate with military-grade capacity and limited accountability, further intensifying conflicts and complicating

5. Significant external support: External support, whether in the form of funding, arms, intelligence, or troops, is a consistent driver of escalation. It allows warring parties to maintain operations beyond their own capacities and hardens the political stakes of war by drawing

4. Non-state actor heavy weapons: When armed groups acquire heavy weaponry, such as artillery, drones, or armoured vehicles, the nature of warfare shifts. These tools enable direct engagements with state forces, increasing both lethality and the likelihood of retaliation.

3. High logistical supply: Logistical capacity is another essential element. Sustaining conflict over time requires secure supply lines, mobility, and coordination. Whether provided by domestic infrastructure or external assistance, strong logistical systems allow combatants to

2. Accessible terrain: Accessible geography facilitates rapid military advances and wider offensives, whereas remote or difficult landscapes may limit movement but prolong warfare through attrition.

1. Urban origin onset: When violence erupts in urban centres, particularly capital cities, it poses a direct threat to the state’s authority and often provokes an immediate, large-scale response. Urban density also magnifies the human cost and disrupts civilian life, making the

Understanding why some wars escalate, while others do not, is essential for designing early interventions and effective peacebuilding strategies. The Global Peace Index 2025 identifies nine key factors that influence the pace and intensity of conflict escalation.

Five countries with largest deteriorations in peacefulness:.#Bangladesh.#Ukraine.#Russia.#RepublicOfCongo.#Myanmar. Get data, insights and rankings for 163 countries in the Global Peace Index 2025 report:

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