GlobalSourcePartners
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GlobalSource Partners, Inc. delivers the highest quality macroeconomic and political analysis to emerging markets investors worldwide.
New York, NY 10017
Joined January 2011
Andres Escobar on #Colombia – The 23% minimum wage hike will obstruct entry into the formal labor force, increase unemployment, and complicate the pension and fiscal accounts. #EmergingMarkets $USDCOP https://t.co/CysBedJQLW
globalsourcepartners.com
President Petro just announced a 23% increase in the minimum wage (MW) for 2026, setting it at COP $2 million including the compulsory transportation allowance. When all the non-wage costs are taken...
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Robert Funk on the implications of Kast’s win in #Chile and what to expect going forward – watch the transition team. $USDCLP #EmergingMarkets
https://t.co/LdKLtQoklL
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Many observers ask how it is that a country that six years ago was marching on the streets and four years ago elected a young leftist firebrand has now elected a conservative with a record of...
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Andrew Collier on #China - Xi Jinping does not believe there is any value in helping out individual companies. #EmergingMarkets $USDCNY https://t.co/e7jgrjQc4Q
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Ever since property prices began to collapse in 2021 following Beijing’s draconian Three Red Lines policy limiting bank loans in 2020, the markets have been expecting a central government bailout of...
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Istvan Racz on Moody’s affirmation of #Hungary’s rating – The affirmation, as well as recent fiscal decisions by the country, are positive for financial stability. #EmergingMarkets $USDHUF https://t.co/GbsGZGys6i
globalsourcepartners.com
On Friday, November 28, Moody's affirmed its investment grade credit rating for the Hungarian government, despite fears that a negative rating decision may follow the most recent loosening up of...
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Guillermo Valdes on #Mexico's November 15 march – President #Sheinbaum’s response to the demonstration, as well as the likely scenarios following the march, all bode poorly for governability. #EmergingMarkets $USDMXN https://t.co/6JSaDEpc0A
globalsourcepartners.com
A large demonstration on Saturday, November 15 against President Claudia Sheinbaum’s government may be a prelude to a major political realignment. The catalyst for the protest was the November 1...
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Robert Funk on #Chile’s first-round presidential election – While the frontrunners were as expected, the big story of the night was the decisive rejection by voters of Chile’s traditional parties. #EmergingMarkets $USDCLP https://t.co/E9aZI0hENW
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As expected, Jeannette Jara and José Antonio Kast will face each other in Chile’s runoff presidential election on 14 December. Less expected was Jara’s poor showing, winning just 26.8% of the vote,...
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Istvan Racz on #Hungary’s geopolitics – Government-supporting publicity was generated, and an exemption from the new anti-Russia sanctions by the US was achieved, although the question is – for how long? #EmergingMarkets $USDHUF https://t.co/yqI6Yjtw1X
globalsourcepartners.com
PM Orbán travelled to Washington DC in the past few days, and he met President Trump on November 7. Mr. Orbán travelled with a large mission, including the foreign, defense and economy ministers, a...
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Robert Funk on #Chile’s elections – We will likely see a second round between Jara and Kast, but can Kaiser pull off an upset in the coming weeks? #EmergingMarkets $USDCLP #Elecciones2025CL
https://t.co/g3aniBHaVg
globalsourcepartners.com
It does not feel like electoral season in Chile. Historically, elections saw the country’s streets plastered (or littered) with political advertising. But the increasing domination of social media in...
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Guillermo Valdes on #Mexico - The President has her own style and priorities; government critics and the opposition are hoping for a distancing between her and AMLO. #EmergingMarkets $USDMXN https://t.co/yuNdEIbEAU
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Recently we presented an initial balance sheet of the first year of President Claudia Sheinbaum���s government in terms of economic performance and social indicators. In this report, we will consider...
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Istvan Racz comments on the fire at #Hungary’s MOL Refinery – With no injuries, the repair time is materially lower, but an inflationary impact should still be felt in H2 2026. #EmergingMarkets #oilandgas $USDHUF https://t.co/uafrNmBRHy
globalsourcepartners.com
New information regarding yesterday's fire at MOL's oil refinery suggests that the plant has temporarily lost about 40% of its productive capacity for a yet unknown period. Initial estimates for the...
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Joaquin Cottani on #Argentina - The current exchange band is unsustainable, and the $20 billion swap should therefore be seen as a backstop. #EmergingMarkets $USDARS https://t.co/tYEyXVj3fm
globalsourcepartners.com
Despite the U.S. Treasury’s recent show of support, Argentina’s markets remain uneasy. The mere announcement two weeks ago that Washington was willing to offer financial assistance did little to...
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Istvan Racz on #Hungary – Can Hungary condemn Russia for conducting a war against Ukraine, but continue to follow its own interest, which is to continue buying Russian #oil? #EmergingMarkets $USDHUF https://t.co/cHIGFUHLf9
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Following the obvious failure of his Alaska initiative, President Trump has decided to move to Ukraine's side most recently. On different occasions and through various means, including his own social...
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Guillermo Valdes on #Mexico’s politics – Amidst President Sheinbaum’s achievements, she is continuing some of AMLO’s, policies adjusting the legal framework to keep #Morena in office indefinitely. #EmergingMarkets $USDMXN https://t.co/6M6DvAw2VL
globalsourcepartners.com
On October 1, Claudia Sheinbaum will have been in office for the first 12 months of her six-year presidency. President Sheinbaum is riding high, with opinion polls putting her approval ratings at...
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Joaquin Cottani on #Argentina – The market-calming measures are stop-gap solutions that don’t address the root issue: a low real exchange that hinders reserve accumulation and debt servicing. #EmergingMarkets $USDARS https://t.co/iZFlB9R5VZ
globalsourcepartners.com
Last week, Argentina’s economy faced intense pressure as the nominal exchange rate hit the ceiling of its exchange band and country risk surged to 1,450 basis points. Yet, the government, led by...
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Joaquin Cottani on #Argentina’s elections – Without a political mandate in October, structural reforms will face significant obstacles. Policy re-calibration is urgent and unavoidable. #EmergingMarkets $ARSUSD https://t.co/UAkkIt3J4X
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The ruling coalition suffered a 13-point loss in Buenos Aires Province, a stronghold of Peronism. The markets reacted sharply: equities fell up to 25%, bonds weakened, and country risk surpassed...
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Justin Alexander on #Qatar and #Israel – Will Qatar continue to serve as a mediator in Gaza, and how will this factor into Gaza ceasefire efforts and discussions at the UN General Assembly on a two-state solution? $QARUSD #EmergingMarkets #QatarAttack
https://t.co/E8hdIbPruv
globalsourcepartners.com
UPDATE: A Qatari security officer was killed. This significantly increases the stakes. Meanwhile, although some Hamas members were killed, the senior leaders were not. At about 4pm local time today,...
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Guillermo Valdes on #Mexico’s recent judicial election – There were questions about the results and negative implications for future elections in all branches of government. #EmergingMarkets $USDMXN https://t.co/imJqrvfuoa
globalsourcepartners.com
The second year of the current congressional period of sessions began on September 1 with no big surprises. Morena legislators provided a sneak preview of its agenda. Apart from the 2026 economic...
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Istvan Racz on #Hungary – The strikes underscore the need for far more diversification in Hungary’s oil imports #EmergingMarkets #oilandgas $USDHUF https://t.co/eVGbyk9oMm
globalsourcepartners.com
During the night of August 22, the Unecha pumping station in the Bryansk region of Russia was hit by Ukrainian UAV drones, causing the whole station to go up in flames, as everyone can check by...
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Sani Ziv on #Israel – Although some of the decline in 2Q GDP may have been temporary, the renewed mobilization of reservists and the continuation of the Gaza operation are likely to constrain the recovery. #EmergingMarkets $USDILS https://t.co/R67779MvxQ
globalsourcepartners.com
Preliminary data for Q2 GDP show an annualized contraction of about 3.5%. The decline reflects the impact of the Israel-Iran war at the end of the quarter, which led to a partial shutdown of the...
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Andrew Collier on #China – Supply-side reform will be difficult, and locally-owned state firms and smaller private firms may be vulnerable. https://t.co/JV2YlWuUJ3 $USDCNY #EmergingMarkets
globalsourcepartners.com
China’s overcapacity is leading to global price deflation as the country exports subsidized goods. The government has discussed supply-side reform—but how real is this? Does China have the political...
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