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New episode of The Ties that Bind podcast: In Conversation with Antonia Colibasanu Romania and the geopolitics of the Black Sea https://t.co/iWDjfEurUy

The World Bank predicts a widening imbalance between supply and demand in the energy market in 2026. Rising oil output, particularly from OPEC+ countries that are gradually restoring production volumes, could exacerbate the glut and place additional downward pressure on prices.

🌐 The U.S. plans to build a military base in Israel along the border with the Gaza Strip, according to Ynet news. It will house several thousand American troops who will be tasked with maintaining the ceasefire in the region. The base is expected to cost half a billion dollars.

Poland has come a long way in recent decades, from being under Soviet control, to being a growing economic & military power after gaining independence. Now it's about to be part of the G20 & hosts the 3rd largest military force in NATO. @George_Friedman:

The Worsening Oil Glut Brent crude will fall to its lowest level in five years in 2026, according to World Bank forecasts. More details in our new Weekly Graphic:

US Strikes on Caribbean and Pacific Drug Trafficking Since September, the US has widened its use of kinetic force against maritime drug routes in the Caribbean & Pacific, effectively militarizing counternarcotics policy – a dramatic escalation from traditional interdictions.

US Strikes on Caribbean and Pacific Drug Trafficking The campaign has eliminated more than a dozen suspected trafficker boats and killed more than 60 crew. Details in our new Weekly Graphic:

US-China Deal: Tariffs, fentanyl and soybeans were top of the agenda in talks between Trump and Xi.

After years of decline, Chinese foreign direct investment in Europe is rising again. The rebound reflects pressure on Chinese firms to expand abroad as they face tariffs, slow economic growth, overcapacity & competition @ home. The electric vehicle sector dominates this new wave.

Russia's Caribbean Counter? With Trump considering sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine and whispers of Russian retaliation abroad, we ask: what does Trump really want—and how far could the tit-for-tat go? Watch GPF's @George_Friedman:

Chinese EV Investment in Europe May Have Plateaued Growth in 2024 came mostly from projects already under construction. Details in this week's FREE graphic:

George Answers Your Questions: The United States, Venezuela, Cuba and the Caribbean. GPF subscribers sign in for our our NEW column from Chairman @George_Friedman

Ukraine as Viewed From Warsaw and Washington Poland and its neighbors see a test of survival, while the U.S. sees a test of restraint. GPF subscribers sign in for Antonia Colibasanu's reflections on her recent trips to the US and Poland:

Are the US and Venezuela really on the brink of war? @George_Friedman is back on the podcast to discuss the latest developments and much more:

Why Peace by Force Will Not Work in the Middle East GPF's @HKhashan: It’s unlikely to resolve a conflict that has endured for over a century.

The weaker economy is China - GPF Chairman @George_Friedman on the tumultuous US-China trade relations

The International Monetary Fund’s latest global economic data reflect cautious optimism. Details in this week’s free graphic:

European capitals and NATO partners are getting serious about a “drone wall” for Europe’s eastern flank. As GPF's Andrew Davidson explains, defending against long-range and loitering drones is first a problem of physics and logistics, not just technology.

GPF Chairman @George_Friedman participated remotely in today's @KIEForum, on a panel discussion titled Ukraine’s Battle for the Future in the New World Disorder. The event can be viewed on YouTube, with more information on the forum's website - https://t.co/9D9151NZPg