“Can you take a picture of you and the other driver for the customer” The picture:

All eyes on the IOTI prior to Chinese New Year and after the potential tariff ruling. This index remains undefeated at being the leading signal of U.S. containerized import volumes. Wild ride over the last 5 years.

I keep pointing to 2024 demand/volume as a level that if 2026 is able to reach (seems like a modest rebound), then it would put even more pressure on already tighter capacity conditions (tightest since late 2022 in the LMI survey and currently rejections still at 10%+

Downstream respondents expect inventories to stay leaner while upstream expects to see much more activity. So, I’d say that altogether these signals combine to show that these leaner inventories reduce the margin for error in an already tighter market.

A restocking surge isn’t guaranteed, and there is a scenario where POs stay muted (especially downstream). The LMI actually touched on the difference in forward expectations between The LMI actually touched on the difference in forward expectations between upstream and downstream

In the most recent update, transportation capacity also moved back into serious contraction for the first time since the second half of 2022.

The latest Logistics Managers' Index inventory levels (white line) collapsed to their lowest reading ever recorded at 35.1. Meanwhile, warehousing utilization (green line) marked a 2nd consecutive all-time low at 42.9 as shippers aggressively ran inventories lean through 2025.

Live look at me and homies watching rejections break 11% @freightcaviar

And there’s the breakout @FreightAlley. Fresh 34-month high for dry van spot rates (including fuel) at $2.54/mile. At this rate could break $2.60/mile by the end of 2025.

Festive market conditions map for 12/15. Weighted rejection index (market share x WoW change in rejections) about as red as we’ve seen in quite some time. Rejections are ripping in nearly all large markets. Red = tightening / Green = loosening.

DOE National Retail Avg Diesel $/gallon has seen a ~$0.16/gallon drop over the last two weeks and looks to be slated for another $0.07-$0.09/gallon drop on next week’s update. #diesel

For a sustained truckload bull run, the biggest ? is on demand(volumes). Where will it come from? Well, this chart shows loaded 53’ containers - an Average 1,000-1,200 daily truckloads worth are on the rails. Shipper urgency + rails raising rates = some spill over. That’ll help.

SONAR’s tender rejection levels reaching over 9% and their highest point this year (and right in-line with the peak last year). We are even taking off at a faster/steeper pace than the end of 2019 (orange line). I’m taking the over on 12%+within the next 10 days.