Fishtown Capital
@FishtownCap
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Mostly finance nerd, plus Tech/Med Device space
Philadelphia, PA
Joined August 2009
$FTAI Updated Business Segment 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance from $1.525-$1.625 billion, up from $1.4-$1.525B last quarter. This is before shipping modified engines, that starts late 2026. Looking forward to seeing $WLFC..
$WLFC $AER $FTAI Good time to own companies that own jet engines, even if they're not converted to generation turbines, this supply chain is going to be tight for a very long time.
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$WLFC $AER $FTAI Good time to own companies that own jet engines, even if they're not converted to generation turbines, this supply chain is going to be tight for a very long time.
BREAKING: Fox News reports that xAI, Amazon, Google, OpenAI, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle will sign deal to generate their own electricity supply for AI data centers.
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Your quarterly reminder to stop bottom fishing Diageo $DEO . This one is so bad I want to short it (if it pops back a bit I might.) https://t.co/uWbbnMK8r3
$DEO Diageo Nearly cut in half since 2 years ago and still not cheap. Stop buying anything with a high teens+ P/E and no/negative growth. I don't care how strong the brand is. This is what happens, and are economy is far from bad.
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Wrote up my thoughts on $AMZN. I think this and $META represent the best values in tech now. Amazon’s performance has been great, shareholders are mostly upset at the (lack of) share price action and not the operating performance
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$OKE OneOK tiny beat, flat 2026 guidance: $5.45 EPS midpoint (15x fwd P/E). $2.7-3.2B total CapEx Not as weak as it seems at first glance IMO -Ton of growth projects wrap up this year/early 2027. -Assumes $55-60 WTI (curve is $65ish now, so conservative) Probably see a big
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Is “when our customers stop signing up to pay for incremental capacity” too simplistic? I think 2026 is largely a bridge year before the Hyperscalers custom silicon ⬆️ and $NVDA ⬇️ Amazing how we started to assume these companies are idiots and these investments weren’t made
A question I have for $ORCL, $GOOG, $META, $MSFT, $AMZN, $NVDA, $CAT, and all the rest, “When does the spending for AI data center buildout actually end?” It is consuming all your cash flow, you are borrowing, you are financing in ways you never have, apparently because it is so
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Wild because GDPNow had this over 5% 4 weeks ago.
Q4 GDP 1.4%, Exp. 2.8%, Last 4.4%
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Berkshire $BRK $BRK.B Still selling $AAPL and $BAC, still buying $CB and $CVX Not sure why they're selling anything with the cash pile. When do they make the offer for Chubb $CB?
Warren Buffett | Berkshire Hathaway Q4 25’ 13F (Dataroma) Top 5 holdings: $AAPL $AXP $BAC $KO $CVX
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$ET Energy Transfer Good quarter, results hit by a few one times items they'll recover in Q1. The data center + power plant connects happening fast. Lot of construction finishes this year. Organic $1B EBITDA increase for 2027 in play with leverage falling near 4x. May see
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Interesting thought exercise from @Tintincapital on Amazon $AMZN. AMZN averaged 12% revenue growth last 3 years (12, 11, 12.4%) but this should accelerate. There's a significant lag between spend and revenue hitting. 20% of AMZN net PP&E ($72B of $357) is "construction in
My $amzn as a Utility valuation: Obviously hinges on ongoing CAPEX and to what extent that creates new ongoing maintenance capex. ChatGPT suggests that for every $1 invested in Growth CAPEX today, 25 cents is needed in maintenance capex to support it going forward. If true, it
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I think software stocks are about to rip. Will delete if wrong. 😀
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Willis Lease Finance Launches In-House Engine Module Restoration Capability, Willis Module Shop !! $WLFC $FTAI Willis now doing module restoration, $AER looking at engine conversions. Good luck $FTAI at 40x https://t.co/jmcf4cw7gC
finance.yahoo.com
Successful inaugural engine restoration demonstrates strong EGT margin recovery and supports fleet transition strategyCOCONUT CREEK, Fla., Feb. 12, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Willis Lease Finance...
Is $FTAI (40x FY26 estimates) about to buy out $WLFC (14x FY26 Estimates, about 9x my estimates?) They usually trade somewhat together.
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$ET Energy Transfer reports next week. Crude up 10% and + a major cold snap since ET FY26 guidance on 1/6. There is a country mile in valuation gap between ET (8x) and $EPD (11x) $KMI (13.5x) $WMB (17x!) Even $OKE now 11x. AI taking over? $ET is investing primarily in natty
$ET Purchased a slug of Jan2027 $17 calls for $1. They may win, they may not, but I don't think they're priced correctly. With the current guide, they'll pay for $4.5 out of the $5.5 in CapEx right from cash flow. Sentiment could easily shift back to this group in 54 weeks.
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$FISV I think $8 is pretty good for a “reset” year. Thought they could guide lower than that. 7 P/E, probably rally today even with it down pre market
$FISV Fiserv hat seine Q4-Zahlen vorgelegt Umsatz von $5,284 Mrd. übertrifft die Erwartungen von $4,9 Mrd. Gewinn je Aktie von $1,99 übertrifft die Erwartungen von $1,90 Ausblick FY2026: Organisches Umsatzwachstum zwischen 1-3% Gewinn je Aktie zwischen $8,00-8,30
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$WLFC Willis Lease is collaborating with CFM International to launch a program to extend the life of CFM56-5B + CFM56-7B engines by restoring core components instead of fully disassembling engines. Moving to a more service based model. I still have them at $25-30 EPS in FY26.
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$AMZN This sentiment is a big reason why it sold off. Ignore that it’s an 8 bagger over 10 years, measure from an arbitrary 5 year period. No discussion of biz growth, moat, or valuation. Just “stock flat and capex so sell.”
@sam_badawi Amazon is the most overrated stock in the market. I’ve owned it for seven years. The last 5 years the S&P has clobbered it. They can put up all the great numbers in the world, but the stock won’t keep up to S&P or QQQ.
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$AER $FTAI $WLFC AerCap indicated they are looking into the datacenter engine power conversion. Wants to make sure it's durable. Would participate directly (doing the conversions) or by selling the engines. Notes they have more engines than anyone in the world.
AerCap $AER solid beat at $3.95 which including costs due to Spirit. 2026 Core Earnings Guide: We started 2025 at "8.50-9.50" which got walked up to $11 last quarter and finished at $11.42. FY26 guide started at $12-13 (+$1.8/share per their slide.) They'll walk this up 50
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AerCap $AER solid beat at $3.95 which including costs due to Spirit. 2026 Core Earnings Guide: We started 2025 at "8.50-9.50" which got walked up to $11 last quarter and finished at $11.42. FY26 guide started at $12-13 (+$1.8/share per their slide.) They'll walk this up 50
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$AMZN Amazon At $200, it’s a forward P/E of 25x. For a company that used to trade at ♾️ P/E because it was growing and cementing itself into everything. It’s still investing in AWS, one of the best businesses on the planet, where growth is accelerating from a huge base,
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Back long $AMZN at $200. Will likely sell calls against it tomorrow. Probably will buy $MSFT too. I think this move is overdone
$AMZN well this sucked. Pulled the plug here at $237. More of a macro call. $MSFT's earnings weren't that bad. I think $AMZN does better, but it could get ugly between now and the report. My logic seems sound, so this is almost certainly the bottom, go ahead and buy.
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