Ray Long
@FantasyRayRay
Followers
578
Following
1K
Media
1K
Statuses
7K
A football fan asking better questions about why decisions are made and why they work, or don’t, over time. Substack: The Long Thread 👇🏾
USA
Joined November 2022
My thoughts 🧠💭 on why I think Garrett Nussmeier could be a first round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Full article available on Substack. Link 🔗 in the bio
0
1
3
LPF takeaway: 👉 2026 won’t give you many superstars 👉 It will help you avoid busts Who are teams going to overdraft anyway? And who’s going to survive longer than anyone expects?
0
0
0
This isn’t a “bad” QB class. It’s a risk-management class. • Fewer ceiling bets • More long-term survivors • Less catastrophic downside If you’re chasing saviors, you’ll hate it. If you’re avoiding franchise ruin, you won’t.
1
0
0
🔴 Garrett Nussmeier 🔴 Cade Klubnik 🔴 Ty Simpson This is where traits collapse. Accuracy fades when reads speed up. Sacks replace throwaways. Production was environment-dependent. Arm talent doesn’t rescue this profile. It never has.
1
0
0
🟡 Carson Beck 🟡 Drew Allar 🟡 Trinidad Chambliss These guys can pilot an offense. But when protection degrades: • answers thin out • sacks creep in • stress creation becomes situational They need structure to win.
1
0
0
🟢 Diego Pavia — Low-Risk The framework darling. Creates stress for defenses, not himself. Mobility is functional, not chaotic. Situational aggression without sack addiction. High floor. Long survival tail.
1
0
0
🟢 Fernando Mendoza — Low-Risk Multi-year starter. Multi-environment survivor. Decision economy holds when structure disappears. He doesn’t create negative plays trying to be a hero. That trait travels.
1
0
0
LPF is not a ranking. It’s a risk filter. No inferred stats. No arm-talent overrides. Unknowns stay unknown. The only thing that matters: 👉 Does the QB still function under NFL stress?
1
0
0
The 2026 QB class looks confusing because people keep asking the wrong question. It’s not “Who has the best arm?” It’s “Who survives when the environment breaks?” I ran the entire class through the Long Portability Framework. Here’s the classification 🧵⬇️
1
0
0
Here we go Brownies Here we go!!!
Browns fans, here's a little something we did on @gmfb a few years back on expected new coaching hire Daniel Stern.
0
0
0
Wouldn't be surprised if Harbaugh reached out after losing Monken.
Report: Greg Roman to have in-person interview for Jets OC vacancy.
0
0
0
QB draft busts aren’t a data problem. They’re a translation issue. Production is easy to spot. Traits that survive NFL chaos aren’t. My Long Portability Framework hit 62% on backtests and flagged Maye early. Full article on Substack. Link in bio. #NFLDraft #Quarterback
Former Jets GM Mike Maccagnan talked about his belief in Sam Darnold, the quarterback he drafted, ahead of next Sunday’s Super Bowl, via @RichCimini: https://t.co/ysa0AYHIgf
1
0
0
QB draft busts aren’t a data problem. They’re a translation issue. Production is easy to spot. Traits that survive NFL chaos aren’t. My Long Portability Framework hit 62% on backtests and flagged Maye early. Full article on Substack. Link in bio. #NFLDraft #Quarterback
1
0
0
Now I see why Tood Monken got the job. He's bringing over the entire Ravens organization 😂
0
0
0
Bring back Ty Jerome
0
0
0
Monken deserves a chance, he’s more than qualified. Forget the process and look at the results. #Dawgpound
0
0
0
I am so sick of people pretending that Shedeur Sanders matters. He isn't going to be in this league in 5 years, much less starting.
0
0
0
Been seeing this narrative and it's sooo stupid. The Ravens have Lamar Jackson why would they take a QB in the first 4 rounds instead of addressing teams. It's also on record that wanted to draft him and Shedeur said no because he didn't want to be stuck behind Lamar.
"We tried to draft your ass last year." (144th overall pick) Beware of BS Meters off the charts this time of year.
0
0
0
Franchise QB1 🤩
1
0
1