Fantasy Football Trout
@FF_Trout
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Probability nerd, building @SolioAnalytics @trout-post.com on bsky
Joined November 2019
0/14 An Application of Stochastic Programming to FPL: robust planning under fixture uncertainty using Linear Optimisation with Recourse ⤵️
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📺 FPL Gameweek 11 - Wisdom of the Crowd @Pras_fpl and @FPL_Spaceman discuss Solio's new "wisdom of the crowd" feature and what we can learn from people's beliefs, as well as the current trend of defenders dominating the FPL points, and some Free Hit planning. Links below 🔗👇
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... Even with these remarkably pessimistic assumptions, Bruno is STILL the best-projected FPL asset under £10M across the next 5 GWs, and great value at 8.9M! A fantastic pick right now indeed 🤠
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Using our new Wisdom of the Crowd feature (released yesterday!), we can see that many Solio users predict Bruno will perform at a worse level than any of his previous seasons with Man United 😳 But...
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Big-picture FPL beliefs like "Bruno is a fantastic pick!" are a composition of small beliefs, like "Bruno will score X goals over the next 10", "he will hit DefCon Y times", etc. @SolioAnalytics is a framework for turning your small-picture beliefs into big-picture ones!
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Triple captain Saka in GW16 anyone? 📅 Move any fixture to any gameweek you like, and have the projections update accordingly! Planning for FPL blank and double gameweeks made simple with Solio. 👉 https://t.co/5B0QxS0kbZ
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The Solio team has collectively worked hundreds of hours to ensure our model is robust and aligns with betting market sentiment. But if you don't agree with it, that's all the more reason to use our tool! 😁
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That said... if you prefer your tool to tell you what to believe, this is also an entirely valid way to use analytics 😄 Model-oriented play is a proven method of obtaining strong FPL results with a relatively low requirement for effort.
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Great thread! The purpose of the Solio FPL Tool, and the power of great prescriptive analytics, is not to dictate decision-making. Rather, it enables people to explore, understand and evaluate decisions in line with their own beliefs/assumptions!
One of the most misunderstood parts of FPL analytics: Two completely different teams can have almost the same projected points.
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I'm even more excited for the other (even cooler) stuff that having truly coherent projections allows us to build! 👀
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So happy to finally share this over the last few days - our concept for dynamic projection has been over 18 months in the making 😊 Being able to dial down e.g. Wissa's mins and see Gordon's projected points instantly react due to the re-allocated pen share feels really magical
🚀 First of its kind in #FPL. Adjust any player's projected minutes, goals, assists, clean sheet ratio, and Solio instantly re-calculates all other players. Dynamic. Coherent. Fast. So proud to ship this dream feature. Built for FPL tinkerers. 🔥
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Late change in Solio GW7 projections
📊 GW7: Solio projected #FPL points and picks Projections updated on site after today's pressers A look at some of the top projected GW7 players on our live @SolioAnalytics model - & an example 'free hit' team 👇
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The breath of God is moving again—awakening hearts, families, and nations. @ElijahListSteve
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📊 GW7: Solio projected #FPL points and picks Projections updated on site after today's pressers A look at some of the top projected GW7 players on our live @SolioAnalytics model - & an example 'free hit' team 👇
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We took a look at Salah’s underlying numbers - this season’s outputs are the weakest he’s put up in any 6-game stretch over the past six seasons! Early days, but one to keep an eye on! 👇
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New #FPL toys 👀 Tweak team strengths, mess about with penalty shares and watch all the projections update in real time - oh, and run that all-important 32 gameweek solve 😅 Come and have a play!
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Once MYNZ breaks $2, you’ll see FOMO kick in. Once it crosses $3-4, every biotech scanner lights up. If the data holds and validation continues, $14 might not even be the ceiling — it’s the starting line. DYOR
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Very excited and proud of the Solio team to be launching some extremely cool new features 😊
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should you bench boost 🤔
GW5: Bench Boost Active @Pras_fpl and @FPL_Spaceman discuss whether GW5 presents a viable opportunity for using the bench boost chip, examining the factors that make it an attractive or risky proposition. Links below 🔗👇
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And finally: all 4 tiers side by side for easy comparison. We hope you find one that suits your needs! Available from 1 October. #FPL #FPLCommunity
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