Eric Burris
@EricBurrisWESH
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Meteorologist - WESH 2/Hearst TV Design. Central Florida native; Aviation nerd. Space nerd. Always trying to 'be the sunshine'.
Orlando, FL
Joined March 2009
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All I can say at the moment is… holy crow…
Working on a story for WESH 2 News at 5, but I think it’s safe to say, this was an experience of a lifetime.
@BlueAngels
, I am FOREVER grateful for this opportunity…
Many more pictures to come, I just need some water!
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Recon indicating the storm IS a Category 5 hurricane.
Reading 158mph on the SFMR...
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.insane.
As of today I’m down 90lbs, and below 200lbs for the first time in perhaps 20 years? more?
I stumbled on this old pic, and had to compare and take a picture today.
I’m healthier for my babies, my wife, and myself.
I’m so grateful…
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Look at this- the GFS model is showing Hurricane Ian siting off the west coast of Florida for days...
Wed-Fri AM.
Ugh.
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Why do I urge folks not to focus JUST on forecast cones and model data? This...
Look at the live radar from Key West. Look at the position of the storm/forecast for the storm.
I might be crazy, but it's more east than anticipated.
Wobbles matter down the line for sure...
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Our in-house FutureCast 6z model has run, and brings the storm’s core right through our area- after a landfall on the Suncoast. More impacts if this scenario plays out;
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Remember when we say models will ALWAYS seesaw back and forth?
The new 18z FutureCast model enters the room.
New recon data loaded in, atmosphere better surveyed, and a new track to show.
Notice this is a bit closer to the right side of the NHC forecast envelope.
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I’m going to try to close my eyes for a few, but as I do, I want to be honest. I’m concerned for tonight and tomorrow. The wind isn’t what scares me, it’s the water. The models continue showing 12” across parts of our area, but some to 24”. That’s like half of a years rain…
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In his press conference, the governor
@RonDeSantisFL
mentioned that this storm is larger than Charley-
Here's a look... TO SCALE... at the difference in size...
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Well, that's quite a tight look to the models!
New model data seems to be tightening up on where
#Idalia
may be heading, and it's the northern big bend... at least for now.
I also caution, ANY wobble or quicker intensification today could throw this off.
Also, that loop-
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18z models are coming in now.
Here’s our FutureCast model, showing a developing hurricane coming to the big bend. This is right inside the NHC cone, so it’s a plausible possibility…
This scenario would have significant impacts in our western areas.
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Thanks
@OrlandoWeekly
and their readers for this award. Was a nice surprise to come into work and find!!!
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This is a really horrible situation. We're at a 100 year flood in many locations... and the rain is still falling.
I want you to know this- we're going to be okay. This is going to be a ROUGH day, rough few days, but we're already seeing humanity at it's best. Let's stay safe...
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Look how high the lake is... That's Lake Eola... fountain is almost underwater...
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New 18z GFS shows a landfall near Sarasota… and keeps the thing moving. The earlier stalls seem to be a thing of the past thankfully…
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New Euro 12z run is in and thank goodness it keeps Ian moving upon landfall. That scenario is eerily similar to Charley 18 years ago.
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March 25, 2017; Mommy walked down the aisle to daddy- beginning our forever love story.
March 25, 2018; you walked into our lives- forever changing our love story.
We are so blessed, so grateful to announce that Eric Martín Burris has come into this world.
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I’m going to get all emotional here-
Last night I took the family to the UCF game. It was amazing, as usual. During the game, my oldest said that he so wanted to play in the UCF band when he got bigger.
Mommy and I both marched at UCF, so you can imagine how that made us feel.
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Hearing a lot of people reporting a sonic boom. We're working to figure out the cause...
#SonicBoom
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This, my friends, is why I KEEP SAYING that the curve north (away from Florida) isn’t set in stone.
Things that far out can change- so we HAVE to be watchful of Hurricane Lee.
This is from the 5pm discussion of Hurricane Lee from the NHC…
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Why is the tropical Atlantic so quiet? Believe it or not, dust from the Sahara Desert! Here's a look at the next few days- showing more and more of it'
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There’s your eye starting to really pop out.
Recon showing 3-4mb drop in pressure.
This storm is about to really ramp up.
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Guys...
Christmas Eve morning... Feels like temps...
No... Just no...
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Well that’s not fun- 12z GFS is coming in much closer to the west coast of Florida… and brings it ashore near Tampa.
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The
@MCO
weather sensor just gusted to 74mph...
Friends, we're not done. We're still very much in the storm.
Widespread hurricane force wind gusts still blowing through...
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It's just absurd to see the sea surface temps look like this...
This is a look at various buoys around the keys... showing water temps in the mid to upper 90s.
Just horrid for the reef systems, but also, something we'll have to watch through Hurricane Season.
Man...
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New models coming in for Invest
#95L
, and I wanted to get them right out to ya.
This will be a system to watch-
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What a ride as a
@UCF_Football
fan! UCF officially now recognized national champs with the Colley Matrix rankings coming out. What a time to be alive!
#ChargeOn
!!!!!!!
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Barbuda- is about to move through the unimaginable eyewall, and into the calm eye. A breath, and then hell returns. God protect those folks!
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It's been a LONG time since anything like what we're expecting from Idalia has struck the big bend.
In 1950 Hurricane Easy went right up to Cedar Key and then looped south, and waaaay back in September of 1868 a Cat. 3 hurricane moved in.
That's it. Nothing even close...
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So, using our global models and looking at the overall atmosphere, here's what we're thinking for rain the next few days;
Seriously a foot or so. BIG rain likely, and it's a bit concerning for some flooding...
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TikTok told me there was a Category 6 storm heading our way…
1. There’s no such thing
2. She’s pulling this data out of thin air
3. There’s no real Mets or other scientists saying a storm is going to hit these places and be that destructive
4. This is absurd
5. Ugh.
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There are 2 areas in the tropics we're watching currently.
No big threats to us on all of our model data this morning, but I do need to make sure you're kept up to date on this.
Don't worry- I'll be watching for you, but do NOT worry! We're good for now...
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Our FutureCast is running as we speak. It doesn’t show a landfall, because it’s a higher res shorter term model… but it is showing a lean toward the GFS and hurricane intensity…
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Growling concern of hurricane conditions in the metro Orlando area.
I'll be posting data as it comes in...
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So, this is an incredible number.
Station near the Fort Lauderdale Int'l Airport unofficially is showing over 25" of rain... over the last 24 hours.
The record for daily rainfall down there at the airport is 14.59".
WOW...
There's a Flash Flood Emergency posted...
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Truly remarkable consistency with the ensemble plots on what is now Category 5 Hurricane Lee.
Here's a look back on how things have been.
Consistency breeds confidence, so our confidence is growing that this will NOT be a direct threat to us.
New England will have to watch...
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You know Chopper 2 flys around getting breaking news, but did you know with its incredible zoom lens it can see more than you’d realize on clear days like this? 1,000ft agl and the incredible zoom lens caught this- 2 things you’d not think could be in the same picture!
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Um. Nicole is quickly ‘getting that look’… eagerly awaiting the 4pm advisory.,,
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The first of the 12z models is starting in, and it’s our in-house FutureCast model.
It’s initializing farther south (correctly), and has the storm seemingly rapidly intensifying.
Here’s what’s in so far. I’ll post more as it comes…
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New model plots are coming in, and I wanted to get them right out to you… Here’s a look…
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New 12z Euro shows a tropical storm coming in next week on the west coast of Florida.
I’ll be posting model runs a plenty over the next few days to keep you all updated.
This is 1 run of 1 model, but I’ll be posting as many as I can.
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Just realized I didn’t post the full FutureCast 12z run.
Coming in strong as well, but a little more west seemingly…
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Thank you so much!
Can we take a moment to recognize that
@EricBurrisWESH
nailed the LRC forecast which predicted
#Ian
to a tee? This map was released March 1st btw!
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New model plots are coming in, and I wanted to get them right out to you… Here’s a look…
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I can't believe it...
Again this year, I post video of the amazing
@MargaretOrr
reacting to a tornado in her viewing area, caught on their towercam.
Good work again, Margaret; You and your team saved lives...
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Some major convection firing up over the center of circulation.
Also, starting to see an uptick in lightning strikes around what seems to be a developing eye wall structure.
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Incredible
Orange County Fire Rescue taking great care to evacuate seniors in wheelchairs from floodwaters
#HurricaneIan
off Rouse Rd in Orlando
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Verification check mark, I’ll miss you when you’re gone… but I’m not paying…
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Wow... sooo LC-39B, where
@NASAArtemis
is located has peaked out their winds at 100mph.
The sensor is listed as being up 7ft... so it's not an elevated sensor...
That's beyond design limits of the rocket to ride out a storm...
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Models continue windshield wipering every run, and this one is no exception. Big bend still in play, BUT, the timing is hard to dial down.
If this gets stronger quick tomorrow, I'd lean a bit closer to Central Florida and shift this a little to the right.
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12z Euro model has
#Ian
scraping along the west coast… slowing down BIG… and battering the coastline for quite the while… Here’s what we have so far-
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It will come tonight, and it’s just too much. Please please please, be safe. If we say there’s a flash flood warning, there’s a reason. Please- common sense. If you’re in a flood prone area, let’s be sure to find higher ground before it’s too late…
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Well, that's quite a tight look to the models!
New model data seems to be tightening up on where
#Idalia
may be heading, and it's the northern big bend... at least for now.
I also caution, ANY wobble or quicker intensification today could throw this off.
Also, that loop-
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NHC has just issued their first advisory for TD
#13
. Here's the first cone. You know we'll be tracking it...
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Well, 12z GFS has run through when we need… and it’s been fairly consistent. Organized storm moving in, and then moving to the gulf, looping back and coming back through. Not loving this trend- but let’s see what the Euro says shortly…
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As the 18z FutureCast continues coming in, this is the last frame I have right now.
Definitely don’t love that…
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Last saw this in Irma...
We’re on Bayshore Blvd in Tampa &
#HurricaneIan
has sucked some water out of the bay
@abcactionnews
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The rain numbers here in Fort Lauderdale tonight are simply incredible.
18.5" according to doppler radar, and NWS Miami even has a few stations showing 20" of rain in 24 hours time.
Fort Lauderdale Airport is closed due to flooding...
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Our FutureCast model is in, and this is as far out as it goes. It’s by far and away an outlier in that it’s MUCH stronger than any other model. Let’s keep watching trends here, that’s the name of the game this early…
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Well then. 6z Euro is in, and all but stalls the storm over the Tampa area. My concern for flooding is growing… big time…
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I literally cannot wait for today.
Today, I get to go fly in
@BlueAngels
#7
.
What. An. Honor.
I can’t wait to share the ride with you on
@WESH
2 News later today!
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New 12z model data coming in, and the GFS has slowed down just a bit.
Here’s a look at the data right now…
I’ll be posting euro shortly-
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Wow, first data from hurricane hunters suggests Hurricane Lee might already be a cat 5 storm.
Ideal conditions for ventilation really showing full force.
Let’s just hope the models are right, and no one gets this storm…
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New GFS 12z has run… and is not looking good in terms of rain for us. If this plays out, slowing WAAY down over us, the rain would be BAD. Model showing up to 24” of rain in parts of Central Florida. Really. Not saying this happens, but certainly a concerning trend…
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Folks, we're in it now.
This is what we've been preparing for the last week...
We're at a once in 200 year flood, dealing with sustained 50-70mph winds, and hours more ahead;
We're together, we're going to get through this...
Here's when it ends...
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New 18z run of our in-house FutureCast model shows landfall around Charlotte Harbor around 5pm tomorrow. Wild that’s the nearly exact same place Charley came ashore 18 years ago. This run also continues the motion thankfully, as opposed to stalling it and creating big flooding…
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Storm surge… my god.
Storm surge outside of my moms house on Fort Myers Beach.
I’m so sick.
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Models aren’t the only thing we’re seeing come into the weather center today! Thanks to Captain Dave Caruthers for this pic of a water spout off the coast of Ponce Inlet today!
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Just watched a launch from the beach for the first time.
Just saw a rocket land on a ship out over the ocean from the beach for the first time.
My god, that was amazing!
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We've all seen the memes- Floridians aren't afraid of hurricanes... it's the days without power we fear.
I get that. BUT. Here's a look at who is at the highest threat for loosing power;
Hurricane Ian is going to be a nasty storm friends- heads up!
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12z GFS is stronger, showing a hurricane coming ashore in Martin/St. Lucie Counties. That would put rough weather into our Space Coast communities…
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The NHC says that
#Idalia
has made landfall as a major Category 3 storm with winds of 125mph at Keaton Beach, FL at 7:45…
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With the storm, seemingly now vertically stacked, I think we have begun our run to hurricane intensity.
Here’s a look at the last hour satellite imagery.
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I’ve trained him right- My son’s favorite ride is “living with the land”
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Wrong way driver almost clobbers me this morning.
Thanking my lucky stars I saw them, and was able to take evasive maneuvers.
Wow.
Let’s all remember tomorrow isn’t promised…
Now that I’ve calmed down… I can forecast..,
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Want a good laugh??
It's COLDER IN ORLANDO than it is in BOSTON right now...
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SO..... what does our impact area look like? This is the first drawing of it-
Based on our current forecasting, our NWern areas are most under threat of direct impacts...
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No ‘Coffee Talk’ today, friends.
Please have a wonderful day, and keep my family in your thoughts and prayers.
Thanks…
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Just called the Florida ‘peninsula’ the “pacific” on tv…
Drinking coffee now as fast as I can- so I can try to do my job somewhat decently…
It’s a Monday alright! Morning friends!
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New 18z GFS coming in, and hugging the left side of the NHC cone, showing a hurricane into the big bend.
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