Empirical Research and Forecasting Institute, ארפי
@ErfInstitute
Followers
2K
Following
295
Media
127
Statuses
284
Our team consists of academics and senior fellows worldwide. ERFI is co-founded and led by Dr. Hooshang Lahooti.
Perth, Western Australia
Joined November 2022
Error Level Analysis (ELA) of this @NYTimes 'Tehran crowd' photo shows signs of digital manipulation — a uniform noise texture across the crowd, anomalous clean values around the fountain, and suspiciously consistent flag density suggesting copy-paste duplication.
228
2K
5K
Report @alirezadabir who promotes a chief terrorist on X. @X please act consistently and do not offer these thugs a platform to share propaganda. He promotes terrorism.
هر چند جوان و بی عصا برگشته اما خودِ اوست، به خدا برگشته سید علی حسینی خامنهای با نام جدید مجتبی برگشته
0
5
7
These are simulations of LLMs to generate and show how easy it is to fake a crowd. The Islamic Republic claims popularity. @nytimes shares their narratives. We challenged.
0
0
10
@Inspired by @ElaheBoghrat's recent tweet.
0
1
4
When the 2026 uprising came, ERFI was not surprised. Our 2023 research had already shown: 3.3 million urban Iranians ready to march, 71% identifying as revolutionists, zero support for hardliners. Empirical research predicts reality. Regimes manufacture it. #Iran
0
4
21
We saw this coming. ERFI, September 2023: The Islamic Republic faces an existential threat from Iran's young generation. The fake NYTimes crowd photo is not a sign of strength — it is a sign of panic. A regime that must fabricate support has already lost. #Iran
1
8
33
While the Islamic Republic fabricates crowd photos to fake legitimacy, our 2023 ERFI data tells the real story: 71% of Iranians are revolutionists demanding total systemic change. Not reform. Revolution. The new Supreme Leader inherits a nation that rejects him. #Iran
0
5
33
Three years ago, 41.5% of Iranians supported military action against the IRGC — our own ERFI survey data. After the January 2026 massacre, that number has only grown. And the regime responds by fabricating crowd photos to fake legitimacy. The people have already spoken. #Iran
0
1
9
Fraud is not new for the Islamic Republic. Roukema (2013) found statistical evidence of electoral fraud in Iran's 2009 election. After this peer-reviewed paper, the regime simply stopped disclosing detailed voting results. No data = no evidence. Now they fabricate crowds. #Iran
1
13
57
We generated this second video from the fake image using Grok — in minutes. More advanced deepfake tools can produce far more realistic results. This is how the Islamic Republic fabricates ‘crowd support.’ Don’t be fooled. They lie. They manufacture legitimacy. #iran
1
23
112
We generated this video from the fake image using Grok — in minutes. More advanced AI tools produce far more realistic results. This is how the Islamic Republic fabricates ‘crowd support.’ Don’t be fooled. They lie. They manufacture legitimacy. The evidence is in your hands.
27
358
887
We pray for the family of Chief Warrant Officer 3 Robert M. Marzan. We pray for the brave soldiers of the US army. God bless America 🇺🇸
A grateful nation honors Chief Warrant Officer 3 Robert M. Marzan of the United States Army. While supporting Operation Epic Fury in the Middle East, he made the ultimate sacrifice defending the United States. His courage and service will never be forgotten. 🇺🇸
0
3
7
Crowd videos are circulating — Don’t be fooled by IRI propaganda. They command 2% popular support and are losing ground every single day. Look below, AI generated
23
216
740
Crowd videos are circulating. They are AI-generated. Don’t be fooled by IRI propaganda. They command 2% popular support and are losing ground every single day. The pictures are fake.
24
515
1K
1
7
108
The spatial geometry is physically impossible: Faces are overlapping in ways that human bodies cannot occupy simultaneously The flag on the right appears to pass through people rather than in front of or behind them. And look at the faces.
2
21
174
The IRI likely took a genuine but modest crowd photo, then cloned and tiled sections to manufacture the appearance of a massive rally filling the entire square.
2
50
237
THIS is why @NYTimes is called Fake News. Luminance gradient analysis confirms: the Tehran crowd photo is FABRICATED. Cloned crowd sections. Hard composite seam. Two different images stitched together. The IRI fakes the photo. NYT runs it. No questions asked. #FakeNews #Iran
This is the most revealing evidence for picture fabrication. A luminance gradient map (normal map rendering) shows directionality of light and surface variance. The gradient texture is mechanically repetitive.. A real crowd would show chaotic, non-repeating gradient variance.
19
313
803