#bolivia We see 20% downside in a low-probability pessimistic scenario, but 12% upside in the optimistic one. Overall, we estimate fair values in the low 80s cents, which opens the door for a Tactical Trade. Accordingly, we change our recommendation from SELL to BUY.

Jamaican Eurobonds held steady in the last 30 days, returning a mild +0.3% to underperform both the Bloomberg EM USD Aggregate “Ba” credits Index (+1.8%) and the Bloomberg EM USD Sovereign High Yield Index (+2.0%).

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After rebounding in June and amid renewed speculation around potential ceasefire negotiations, Ukrainian Eurobonds ended the month broadly stable, posting a modest total return of 0.1% over the last 30 days, underperforming both the Bloomberg EM USD High Yield Index (+1.4%)

In a quiet July, Tritob Eurobonds returned a mild 0.4%, slightly underperforming the EM USD LatAm Index (+0.8%) but more heavily underperforming both the “B- to B+” sub-index (+1.1%) and Bloomberg’s EM USD Sovereign High Yield Index (+1.4%). #TrinidadandTobago

Over the past month, El Salvador's Eurobonds returned 2.2%, in line with Bloomberg’s  Index for “B” sovereign credits (+2.3%) and outperforming the broader EM USD Sovereign High Yield Index (+1.7%). The yield curve remains relatively steep. #elsalvador

#Ghana Country Report: Mixed Signals About Growth; BUY: Despite 􀀻Fiscal underperformance, the country still enjoys IMF support and better.solvency and liquidity fundamentals than its regional peers.

#Venezuela Flash Note: Exports Plummet, as Sanctions Come into Effect.In April, Venezuelan oil production averaged 888 tbd (–2.5% MoM; +7.6% YoY) according to OPEC secondary sources, and 1,051 tbd (+0.3% MoM; +19.7% YoY) based on direct communication.

#Venezuela oil industry faces uncertainty as the future of Chevron’s license remains unclear. Although there is still time for developments, recent trade shifts & news about Chevron's activities indicate the Venz government may be preparing for the license to expire after May 27

#Honduran Eurobonds continue on their upward trend that started in July 2024. In the last month, they posted a 2.7% total return, outperforming both the EM USD BBG Aggregate Index (+2.3%) and the EM USD LATAM Index (+2.9%).

#Lebanon’s new government remains committed to achieving the pending conditions the IMF set back in April 2022 before granting a loan. BUY With PDI-adjusted prices as low as 12.8c on average, we still believe that the risk-reward of the investment remains attractive

How Sensitive Are EMFI Sovereigns to Market Sentiment? We estimate relative risk measures, or betas, for the countries we cover. High-beta regions include Sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia, while Latin America and the Caribbean show mixed results

#ecuador we see the risk-reward profile as even more skewed to the upside than one week ago. If Gonzalez were to win, we expect recovery value to be within the 30-40c range. Should Noboa prevail, we believe Ecuadorian Eurobonds could rally into the 70–80 cent range.

#SriLanka 35, the (GLB) is trading at 67.5c, -2 pts MoM, while yielding 10.5%, +48bps MoM and +120bps YTD. Despite the negative performance, current valuations still suggest that the interest rate reduction trigger is mostly priced in. (MLBs), SL 36 is trading at 77.6c, -4 pts

Our EMFI Core Index lost 2.4% in March, with 4 names rising, 6 holding steady, and 13 losing ground. BOLIVI (+5.5%), VENZ (+3.0%), and HONDUR (+1.2%) were March’s top performers, while LEBAN (-15.4%), UKRAIN (-12.0%), and ECUA (-8.1%) showed the worst results.

#Guatemala’s Eurobonds remained stable last month, delivering a monthly average total return of 0.4% to outperform both Bloomberg’s EM HY USD Index (-0.7%) and the LATAM EM USD Index (-0.4%). Despite a subdued performance in the last month, the name has returned 3.3% in YTD terms

On April 13th, #Ecuador goes to crucial presidential election run-offs, in which incumbent Daniel Noboa faces correísta Luisa González. While Noboa is the market’s preferred option, bond valuations suggest investors perceive González as having a stronger chance of winning.

Despite the high interest burden, we expect #Egypt to navigate the upcoming year with the backing of its international allies, creating opportunities to capture current yields ranging from 6.5% to 12%, depending on the tenor.

#Suriname Country Report: Will There Be Another Program With the IMF? BUY: Despite the recent underperformance, we still like SURINM 33, while SURINM 53 gains are boosted by the oil sector growth perspectives.

#ecuador Flash Note: Polarization Widens as Election Day Approaches The debate between Daniel Noboa and Luisa González was marked by attacks rather than substantive proposals, deepening political polarization.

#Honduras, Country Report , We believe that once political uncertainty dissipates, spread compression will follow. Combined with a 7.2% current yield, this supports our BUY recommendation