Elephant Capital
@ElephantCapita2
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Technical trade setups and occasional macro musings. Posts are my opinion, not financial advice. No telegram.
Joined March 2021
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$NDX updated monthly perspective. We are likely to complete an equal 2nd drive, which is also 1.618 ext of the correction after the first drive. 20500-20700. My view remains unchanged, we are in the last leg up before the meaningful correction to test Oct '23 lows.
$QQQ $NQ
3
3
57
$SPX update. 4155-4165 looks to be an easy first target. I expect a strong bounce from there, which will probably suck a few bulls in too early.
#SPX
#ES
#ES_F
$SPY
#US500
22
34
254
$SPX update. On daily chart, next target is 4715. Likely to get a bounce there. A revisit and break of 4715 would bring 4420 into scope. Bounce there and a revisit of 4420 would bring 4240 into scope. Higher timeframe, 3900-4200s (50-70% retrace of oct ‘22 low to current high).
25
38
254
$GOLD update. No change - expecting target 2 and I think target 3 is possible too.
#GOLD
$XAUUSD
#XAUUSD
$GDX
17
22
159
Going to be painful being a bear, before it pays with the final flush. Permabulls will get sucked in too soon, as well, thinking the low is in. Plenty of points on the table for traders remaining agile. Who wants trade ideas and a potential path mapped?
$NDX $NQ $SPX $SPY $XJO
0
7
160
$SPX update. Friday saw a breakout of a consolidation box. The measured move of this breakout coincides with harmonic targets (H4 and daily timeframe) and a wave 5=wave 1 completion (weekly timeframe). I am now considering the scenario illustrated on chart. This scenario involves
Markets update - after what I think will be a shallow pull back in equity markets, indices will push on to complete patterns serving up a confluence of technical levels (potential reversal zones). Levels include:
$SPX 4660-4675 & 4710-4770
$NDX 16480-16600
$NQ $QQQ $SPY
#ES
2
1
41
10
23
138
$GOLD update. I think the market is about to give investors the last proper opportunity to position long. I have presented multiple views suggesting a final flush. I think it is possible we retest 1600, possibly undercut to mid 1500s before lift off.
#GOLD
#xauusd
$xauusd
22
22
135
#GOLD
update. A lot of people following this chart and benefited on the way up. Now that it has sold off since the last target, I'm getting lots of questions about targets to the downside. Notes on chart, as well as downside target zone.
$GOLD $GLD
#XAUUSD
$XAUUSD $GDX
11
21
126
$GOLD weekly update. The last signal for the move higher is a close above the pivot high. The setup suggests its about to run. $2,145-2,220 the target zone (zooming out to previous views shared - higher in scope towards 2900-3100).
#GOLD
#XAUUSD
$XAUUSD
11
23
126
I am not of the view that the stock market crashes, I am of the view we correct meaningfully, before we surge to new all time highs. $SPX 5158-5175 is circa 2.0 extension of the 16 August 2022 pivot high and the October 2022 low. That is the next area to open short positions in
7
13
116
$SPX update. Reversal zone serves up bang on 🎯. The first main stop now is ~3,980-4010.
#SPX
#ES
#ES_F
$SPY
#US500
12
7
114
$SPX update. Reversal zone 4715-4800. Eyeing ~3640 and ~3330 as the major leg down in '24. Logic, similar to $NDX, however
#SPX
suggests we could break the Oct '22 low, meaning a 3-year cycle low c. '27 well below the '24 low for SPX and NDX. Watching keenly.
$SPY
#ES
#US500
For those that trade $SPY - building on prior $SPX post, potential island reversal here into half cycle low, before another attempt higher to what might be the last potential reversal zone and line of defence for the bears. Notice the declining volume as price surged 10% in 3
9
17
110
18
19
111
For those that trade $SPY - building on prior $SPX post, potential island reversal here into half cycle low, before another attempt higher to what might be the last potential reversal zone and line of defence for the bears. Notice the declining volume as price surged 10% in 3
9
17
110
#GOLD
update. $GOLD has breached the declining t/line. This, together with a triple bottom and engulfing bar suggests we have completed "3-drives" down. We have to remain open to undercut low to high 1500s, but generally, looking good for move towards 1850-1900.
$GLD
#GDX
$GDX
6
18
109
$GOLD mthly log chart update. A close above the bullish Oct candle should set things in motion for a move towards $3k. The pivot low at $1800 served as support and the price action since suggests that my call for lower before new highs in $GDX and
#GOLD
was too aggressive. Plenty
15
17
111
$NDX update. Tagged the interim target area and closed the week with a reversal candle. We should see in the coming week/s an attempt higher to retrace the move down (I've outlined potential relief rally target zone and path).
#NASDAQ100
#NDX
$NQ
#NQ
$QQQ
#ES
$SPX
10
18
110
$NDX update. The nearest sell side liquidity has been swept, as expected. Not uncommon to see a retrace up c. 15600s, before further selling.
#NDX
$NQ
#NQ
$QQQ
5
14
106
#USOIL
update. The lows will be retested and undercut in my view over the coming month or two.
#oil
#oott
35
9
80
$GOLD weekly chart update. The path based on the structure, if it holds, could look something like this.
#GOLD
$XAUUSD
#XAUUSD
$GOLD mthly log chart update. A close above the bullish Oct candle should set things in motion for a move towards $3k. The pivot low at $1800 served as support and the price action since suggests that my call for lower before new highs in $GDX and
#GOLD
was too aggressive. Plenty
15
17
111
14
19
107
$SPX update. Price has moved in the direction expected. From here, a possible relief rally up towards mid-4300s to low 4400s, before continuation down to 3980-4010, and possibly 3900. Note, the weekly swing low will remain in tact at these levels.
#US500
$SPY
#SPX
#ES
5
8
103
One of the most generous contributors to
#fintwit
and constantly providing free education to all. Malcolm provides the most cohesive cycle analysis, always presenting unique perspectives on markets. Congrats on cracking 10k followers, mate. Thanks for all you do
@ColinSt30481392
4
7
101
$NDX update. A 400 point move higher since Wed/Thu erased in a day. The area of interest I'd flagged (15,900-16300) for the final squeeze higher is too aggressive. Now expecting ~14900 then a bounce to 15600-700, but I can't see much more than that.
#NDX
$NQ $QQQ
#US100
#NASDAQ
9
13
98
$SPX interesting stat for you. Since Oct 2020, I found that when Friday's high failed to eclipse Thursday's high, the
#SPX
made a lower low on Monday (or next trading day after Friday) 80% of the time. The average size of the lower low was 49.7 (median was 38.8 points).
7
6
98
$NDX update. Similar to my $SPX logic and harmonic structure. Noting we have hit a reversal zone and extended Fibonacci extensions dating back to Oct ‘22 on weekly/monthly chart. Yes, an undercut of Oct ‘23 low is also within scope before new all time highs.
$QQQ $NQ
#NASDAQ100
2
12
100
$NDX after a bearish close and a break of the intraday structure, we revert to normal programming. Refer to chart for correction targets.
#NDX
#US100
#NASDAQ100
$QQQ $NQ
#NQ
#QQQ
10
9
98
#DXY
update. Despite the rally in equities, the $DXY found support right at the measured move and has since put in a moderate bounce. It has kept this path to 104-105 in scope. Regardless, the structure ultimately points to 97-99 .
#USD
#SPX
$SPX $NDX
#NDX
8
6
98
$NDX update. The reversal zone has delivered. Price has reversed right where it needed to. Confidence in the move lower is building and my expectation is that we move to mid 13k, at a minimum, from here.
#NDX
$NQ
#NQ
$QQQ
#US100
#NQ_F
#NASDAQ100
$NDX update. I think we are in the final stretch of this move (potentially ~100-200 points higher) before a sharper move towards low-mid 13k in November. The structure is still valid and suggests lower.
#NDX
#US100
$NQ
#NASDAQ100
#NASDAQ
$QQQ
13
5
97
14
9
97
#GOLD
qtly chart update. The rally in $GOLD (as outlined below, noting probable retracement ahead) is within the scope of what I have marked as wave B on the qtly chart. I remain of the view that we are in the last up leg before a big flush.
#XAUUSD
$XAUUSD $GLD
#GLD
#GDX
$GDX
13
8
96
$NDX update. I think we are in the final stretch of this move (potentially ~100-200 points higher) before a sharper move towards low-mid 13k in November. The structure is still valid and suggests lower.
#NDX
#US100
$NQ
#NASDAQ100
#NASDAQ
$QQQ
13
5
97
#GOLD
update. Second target hit and well and truly in the potential reversal zone (PRZ) now. Looking for a meaningful correction soon, before resumption of the $GOLD bull market.
#XAUUSD
$XAUUSD
14
13
94
#NDX
daily timeframe - illustrating correction targets
14,400-14,560 as the base case. Second correction target ~13830 (not sure if it gets to this target - take it level by level).
#NASDAQ100
$NDX $NQ
#NQ
$QQQ
#NDX
update. It got within 30 points of the final harmonic target. Perhaps it retests the high next week, but we are in correction territory, in my opinion. I will soon post a H4 timeframe chart to suggest a target for the correction.
#NASDAQ100
#NDX
$NQ
#NQ
$QQQ
2
5
63
6
13
92
$GOLD mthly update. Back in August I suggested that
#gold
could experience a final flush and give investors the last opportunity to board the train. The pivot at 1810 has held, so far. Lower timeframe shows we are at a critical inflection point.
#XAUUSD
$XAUUSD $GDX
#GDX
$GLD
9
15
93
$DXY update. Potential path - noting bias has firmed for what I call "the last hurrah" up towards 112-113. There is a close above prior lower highs, suggesting a shift in structure. In the interim, it can cool towards 103
#DXY
#USD
$EURUSD $USDJPY $SPX
#GOLD
$NDX $NQ $QQQ $SPY
6
10
92
#GOLD
update - weekly chart view. A very clear "three-drives" pattern, which could now be complete as $GOLD finds a double bottom. A pop above the declining trendline over the coming months and a move towards target 1 and target 2 is what I expect. Notes on the chart.
#xauusd
#GOLD
update. Let's revisit the qtly chart with my notes, which many of you would be familiar with. This is the point in my view where we commence the next leg up, (let's call it "wave B"), before what I think will be the final flush. Weekly chart to zoom in, up next. $GOLD
2
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8
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88
I'm still of the view that
#GOLD
will correct and the pivot around 1790-1800 will be the real test. Should that fail, then the next target will be where I have marked "target 2". Yes, I remain bullish over the longer-term with a target of ~2900-3200.
$XAUUSD
#XAUUSD
$GDX $GLD
17
8
90
$GOLD update. After reaching the measured move and selling off, mildly,
#GOLD
surged. It now looks to have 2045-2075 in scope. Yes, that would mean a triple top and serve as a critical inflection point.
#XAUUSD
$XAUUSD
12
9
91
$GOLD update (lower timeframe to provide context for previous wider timeframe charts). The move up has been satisfied and measured moves met. Potential path outlined on chart.
#GOLD
#XAUUSD
$XAUUSD
18
6
90
$silver
#silver
👇🏼 the red box showing the harmonic target zone. Most aggressive take is low 12s. Mid 15s-16s higher confidence area.
#xagusd
$xagusd $SIL
27
11
89
$NDX update. No change. Like $SPX, I don’t see much more upside to this rally. Tonight into next week could see a sharp and steep reversal (~1200 points). Week commencing 6 Nov I have flagged as a very important week.
#NDX
$NQ $QQQ
$NDX update. I have outlined the main target zone for this move down (mid/low 13k zone firming).
#NDX
$NQ $QQQ
#US100
#NAS100
#NASDAQ100
7
7
70
15
8
90
$NDX context. Some ask how I can be bullish, yet expect a ~10-15% correction dead ahead. Well, the
#NASDAQ100
has gone from 10.5k to 15.9k in 7 months. A pull back to ~13.2 - 14k before continuation to the upside is reasonable (and healthy).
#NDX
$NQ
#NQ
$QQQ
#SPX
$SPX $SPY
$NDX update. We've met all harmonic targets and formed an inverse hammer (shooting star) candle. The lower timeframe also shows a minor harmonic completed at 1.62 extension, which I will illustrate in a separate post. I will post the correction scenario in my next post.
#NDX
0
6
59
8
13
89
#GOLD
zooming out for even more context. The 12 month log chart, presented below. Pace yourselves and manage expectations. Immediate target 1950s to fulfil the path outlined in qtly chart, before potential downside to 1250-1430. Note "risk zone" and longer-term potential 👇
$GOLD
9
13
85
$DXY update. The structure and directional bias remains unchanged. Price has dipped into the red zone, as the path suggested. Bias for continuation up towards 113-114 firms if we avoid a weekly close and follow through below this week's low.
#USD
#DXY
$USDJPY $EURUSD
8
6
88
$SPX update. So far we have had a reversal in the zone noted below under phase
#1
(5149). I think we go into phase
#2
now - here is the chart.
#ES
$SPY
#US500
@Dancingbrave86
I don’t know. My current idea of the $SPX path based on harmonic structure and fibs -
1. move up to 5140-5180,
2. sell off to retest Jan lows (c. 4750-4800),
3. Another rip higher to 5400-5430.
#SPX
#SPX500
$SPY
2
1
10
1
12
87
$GOLD update. Some gas left in the tank for a move up to the next major resistance zone (1995-2000) - which happens to also be the measured move of the bullish engulfing candle.
$XAUUSD
#XAUUSD
#GOLD
$GDX $GLD
6
9
87
$NDX update. The market is extended here on all technical measures. It almost clipped 17700 in yesterday's session. The downside targets remain the same. The preferred target zone (15300-15500) finds confluence with a gap fill and trendline dating back to Oct 2022 low. We could
4
16
84
$SPX update. Equities getting the bounce as expected (see prior post and chart below). The big test for
#SPX
will be between here and low/mid 4400s.
$SPY $ES
#ES_F
#US500
8
10
86
$SPX update. Followers would be familiar with my call for 4150-4165 - that has now been achieved 🎯. In my view there is lower to go between now and circa the week commencing 6 Nov. Next targets outlined on the chart, expect some bounces in-between.
#SPX
#US500
$SPY
#ES
#ES_F
5
7
86
$SPX update. Yet another target hit. The measured move zone remains in scope, but the measures for the minor harmonic (red) have been satisfied. My observations only - whilst there could be a fair correction soon, the push higher should continue towards 5,000.
#ES
#ES_F
#SPX
$SPY
8
8
86
12
2
83
$DXY update - looking at this again and considering what I am seeing cross-asset. NOTE - this is a long-term forecast, meaning it will take years to play out. A move up in
#DXY
from here to 111-113, then one final flush to low 80s, before it kills everything in its path.
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9
84
$GOLD update. Zooming out - the chart posted on 29 June is within the parameters of the current box we are in. In my humble opinion we are getting close and any flush that resembles a part or all of the path posted on 29 June I view as a position LONG opportunity.
#GOLD
#XAUUSD
7
5
82
#GOLD
update. Here is the chart for the first target zone - low-mid 1800s.
$GOLD $GDX $XAUUSD $GLD
#GOLD
will get its time in the sun. We are in the process of putting in what I think is the final flush. Where that ends, I’m not exactly sure. I have targets low-mid 1800s and also low-mid 1600s. Long term base case projection $2900-3200. Most bullish target $8,000.
$GOLD $GDX
7
8
64
6
12
81
#DXY
update. We have a breakout and we might see a retest of that breakout before continuation. It all looks like it is building to 109 as the base case and possibly 111-113.
$DXY
#USD
#GOLD
$SPX $NQ $NDX $QQQ $SPY
13
11
81
$GOLD update - who remembers this chart? I haven't changed my view on the overall picture, although I did start to think that flush to 1300s-1400s might seem a bit aggressive, it is still possible., particularly if
#silver
gives us $9s.
#GOLD
$XAUUSD
#XAUUSD
#GDX
$GDX $GLD $SIL
$GOLD update. No change since my post of the quarterly chart on 30 April. Some more notes for you to digest, including the measured moves. In my opinion, it doesn't get any clearer than this. Final confirmation is if we get a close below the second insider bar setup...
#gold
4
5
35
18
5
82
$GOLD monthly log chart update. No change - any dip into the grey box could present a good buying opportunity.
#GOLD
$XAUUSD
#XAUUSD
$GLD $GDX
6
12
81
$GOLD update. No change, still expecting a move to low 1900s (circa 1915-1920), but this is happening within a bearish structure, in my view, with open downside still in scope per this chart (daily) and my qtly chart, which I've previously posted.
#GOLD
#XAUUSD
$XAUUSD
17
8
78
$NDX update. Similar to $SPX - another interim target (see path mapped previously) met. Might see a bit of a bounce here, but my bias remains to the downside. Next targets, which are marked on chart, have not changed.
#NDX
#NQ
$NQ $QQQ
#US100
#NAS100
#NASDAQ
#USTECH100
3
6
80
$SPX update. Tracking to the expected target areas. I'd previously mentioned 4150-4165 as an easy first target. I copped a bit of flack for that - true, nothing is easy in these markets. Targets marked on this chart are lower and well within scope.
#SPX
#US500
#ES
#ES_F
$SPY
5
9
81
$SPX update. We have entered the reversal zone (5190-5240). Looking for signs of reversal between now and early next week to commence short positions. See notes in prior post for rationale. Targets on the chart. The first major one being low-mid 4700s.
#US500
#ES
$SPY
#SPX
2
15
82
$GOLD update. Another perspective shown here, my opinion remains the same - bulls have some work to do. Their time will come, but not quite yet. My base case for the move down remains somewhere in the range of 1630-1700.
#GOLD
#XAUUSD
$XAUUSD $GLD $GDX
7
5
80
I’ll leave this here - and take a rest for a little while. I’ve provided a few higher timeframe updates across markets recently (outlook is for months ahead). Anything that materially changes, I’ll update. Appreciate the support and the challenge. Take care.
@ElephantCapita2
I find the recent criticism interesting as I've made money following you. Possibly people are reading your forecasts wrong? You usually state likely chances of success. You cancel quickly when wrong. That's the best anyone can do. Also I follow Alex etc which improves accuracy.
1
0
15
13
1
82
$GOLD update. The price action after reaching a harmonic reversal zone is suggesting a move to somewhere between 1875-1915 (a retest of the breakout). Let's see how it holds up.
#GOLD
$XAUUSD
#XAUUSD
$GDX
8
12
81
#USOIL
down to low 78s 🎯 fulfilling the path perfectly! Now, away she goes.
#oil
#oott
#wti
#inflation
#energy
#USOIL
update. No follow through to the downside, and the breach above the pin bars suggests it wants to get on with it after a retest of low 78s. The structure seems to suggest mid 82 to high high 83s. target
#oil
#oott
#wti
#inflation
5
5
58
10
12
79
#GOLD
update. Clipped bottom end of the range. 2355. Could get a correction into low-mid 2200s before attempting the higher end of the zone noted below (2450-2515). From there larger correction to break 2200. Needs it probably to sustain a run to 2900-3200.
$XAUUSD $GLD $GDX
@newjez
@John48086165
2355-2515 for
#gold
is a big area. Somewhere in there we could see turbulence and a sudden jolt to unnerve bulls.
1
0
11
3
11
81
$GOLD update. The pivot at $1810 (outlined) has so far served as support. The range of the bullish engulfing candle is $1810-2010. Miners suggesting ~15% downside. Bullish scenario remains active despite this if price remains within this wide range.
#GOLD
#XAUUSD
$XAUUSD $GDX
$GOLD mthly log chart update. A close above the bullish Oct candle should set things in motion for a move towards $3k. The pivot low at $1800 served as support and the price action since suggests that my call for lower before new highs in $GDX and
#GOLD
was too aggressive. Plenty
15
17
111
4
13
77
$NDX we rode this down nicely. Now it starts to get tricky.
#NDX
is approaching a potential reversal zone. The recent low must hold to add confidence to the path projected (higher into Sep, before the big flush). Notes on the chart. DYOR
#NDX
#NQ
$NQ $QQQ
#NASDAQ
#NASDAQ100
Going to be painful being a bear, before it pays with the final flush. Permabulls will get sucked in too soon, as well, thinking the low is in. Plenty of points on the table for traders remaining agile. Who wants trade ideas and a potential path mapped?
$NDX $NQ $SPX $SPY $XJO
0
7
160
7
8
77
$NDX update. Potential path.
1. Down to low 17400s
2. Up towards ~17800-18000
3. Down to 15900-16400s
#NASDAQ100
#US100
$NQ $QQQ
3
8
78
$AAPL is putting in what I think will end up being an aggressive lower high (~194-195). The move down to 161-162 and eventually 152 is still well and truly in scope.
#APPLE
#AAPL
5
8
73
$GOLD lower timeframe (short term) update. As you can see - a backtest of the declining trendline last week and now a potential move to 1865 (and possibly ~1877) to fulfil the harmonic.
#GOLD
$XAUUSD
#XAUUSD
$GLD $HUI $GDX
6
8
75
#GOLD
update. The $2120 target mentioned on 22 Feb is coming in my opinion, see chart for confluence of factors suggesting that as the major target area. From there an inflection point - which could see $GOLD trade back down to scenario 1 - $2050. Whether the scenario 1 or
#GOLD
update. H4 suggesting a move to 2056, 2076 and even 2120. Does it invalidate the below at those levels, no. It remains within the range. Does it signal for me to go long - for a short term trade, yes, for a position in the miners - no. $GOLD $XAUSD $GLD $GDX
6
0
30
6
12
75
$NDX update. Another perspective, I've previously shared - updated here.
$NQ
#NDX
#US100
#NASDAQ
#NASDAQ100
$QQQ
$NDX update. For those interested in an interim target on the way to the target areas outlined below, ~14160. It could come rather quickly.
#NDX
$NQ
#NQ
#NASDAQ100
#NASDAQ
$QQQ $SPX
1
5
58
3
8
72
$SPX update. Getting closer to that "easy first target" - which copped some ridicule... but first a bounce before continuation down. Ultimately, I think we go lower than the first target, but take it level by level.
#SPX
#ES
#ES_F
$SPY
#US500
5
11
74
#SILVER
update. This qtly chart suggests area of interest
#2
is now out of scope. Area of interest
#1
is the buying zone. We have a breakout of the declining trendline based on qtly closing prices. This suggests to me any dips from here will be bought.
$XAGUSD
#XAGUSD
$SILVER
3
11
74
I get questions (and sneers) with regards to my analysis and directional calls. Whatever tools and frameworks I use - they essentially:
1/ Frame market structure and price action; and
2/ Give me my directional bias and potential levels.
They are not fool proof, but they help
12
0
73
#GOLD
could bring low 1900s into scope, with a move above last week's bullish close. However, this is happening within a structure with downside target still in scope on this chart and also my qtly chart analysis, which I've shared numerous times.
$GOLD $XAUUSD
#XAUUSD
$GDX
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72