Weekend Footnotes by Angie Setzer — out now Bean basis firming fast — bids up 30¢ in spots. Corn yields all over the place — disease hitting IA & NE. Wheat trade twist — France wins Egypt business while Russia talks up big crops. Cash is still the only thing talking sense. Read

This is the Left party’s outcome — doesn’t matter where you go: South, North, East, or West. Brazil’s state-owned companies just posted the largest deficit in history. Back in 2020, under Bolsonaro, they had recorded the biggest surplus ever. Polls show Lula defeating all

Rumour China is going to auction 3.5 Mi t of beans... DCE -1.6%. Here we go again. Earlier this year same game - rumors of 3.5 Mi t. Why auction beans if margins are bad and Spring Festival is earlier?

If there were no trade war or tariffs on U.S. beans, would the U.S. be cheaper than Brazil? Comparing this season with 2023 could give us an idea of how large U.S. sales for the OND window could be. With a full crop, Brazil would still be cheap enough to compete with US + quality

One more major input retailer in Brazil is facing financial trouble — Belagricola. The company announced a 60-day suspension on fixings. AgroGalaxy, Lavoro Agro, and Bela are the main sources of barter liquidity in Brazil.

Far from any agreement. Rumors this vessel will be charged

The best indicator of port-fee risk? DCE soymeal is saying "it’s fading away". China granted exemptions for Made-in-China vessels, regardless the charterer. More soybean offers in the CFR China today - bearish for US balance sheet

Rain remains very concentrated in the North of MT and Parana. Lack of rain in the South and West of MT. Cotton producers are thinking: is it better to plant beans and lose the ideal window for cotton, or skip beans and plant cotton earlier? More producers reporting lower cotton

Soybean stocks at ports hit a new record—a mix of the holiday effect and strong shipments in Brz. This isn’t a trade-war story; it’s about Brz shipping capacity—the new normal

Credit is getting squeezed in Brazil. Funding data from Mato Grosso reveals the shift—farmers’ own capital dropped from 32% to just 18.8% - IMEA. That’s going to drive soybean and corn farmer selling next year

Brz soybean Program 1. Total 102.3 committed, +10 Mi t YoY (110 Mi t jan-dec is totally possible) 2. FX and cheaper rail rates are helping to make replacement cheaper 3. Slow farmer selling is supporting NC basis. China and local crushers are shorter than LY same date. With no

Ministry of Transport of the People’s Republic of China Public Government Information Release Announcement of the Ministry of Transport on Imposing Special Port Service Fees on U.S. Vessels Date of Publication: October 10, 2025 In response to (USTR)’s announcement on April 17,

China is back. Oils are leading the rally. Board crush remains weak DCE. Rumors 5-6 soybean cargoes reported CFR China for Nov and ND. Brazil and Argentina sold. Brazil’s daily soybean loadings set monthly records in six of the past ten months. OND will likely run below average.

DCE will resume trades this evening. Using smeal and oil of Sep 30, board crush is arnd $10/t for Brz Nov beans and $17/t for Arg (ind. Cost not included). Crushers still need to buy ~10 Mi t till Jan. Farmer selling in Brz OC has been really slow. #China #soybean

For Nov, USG is far from Brz for North Africa. For Dec USG is cheaper than Santos, but more expensive than Itaqui. For Jan USG is definitely competitive

Argentine soymeal resumed its downward trend. Both basis and flat price are falling after a very strong rally last week

Fob market in Brz for NC closed firmer. Bids didn't follow. Some farmers are reporting replanting in the West of Mato Grosso.

Soybean profitability in Mato Grosso. For 2025-26, a 100% owner is making $260/ha at current price levels (not bad) - I'm using 56 b/a. So, from where all the chapter 11 events are coming from, and why they are so concentrated in MT? From producers with less than 50% ownership

SBM flat price returned to pre-tax holiday. Big jump in Arg

The soybean pipeline to China is softening but still solid. Total soybean arrivals over the next 30 days are expected to be ~9 Mi t. Compared to a month ago, there are more cargoes coming from Arg. Brz has loaded 94.6 Mi t (78% to China) through Oct 2 — 6.6 Mi t above last year,