Remember when NATO chief Rutte called Trump "daddy" at The Hague? Now daddy wants Greenland "the hard way" if his kids don't comply. Denmark says a US takeover means "the end of NATO." This is the first time in 76 years a NATO member has threatened military action against

The military government of Burkina Faso says it has foiled a plot to kill the president, Ibrahim Traore, and destabilise the country.  The security minister alleged that the plot was funded from Ivory Coast. There's been no comment from Ivory Coast or Lieutenant-Colonel Damiba.

Switzerland to freeze Maduro-linked assets

Also in this week's briefing: → Iran protests hit Day 9. Trump threatens intervention. → China condiucts live-fire drills around Taiwan. → North Korea tests ballistic missiles. → Bulgaria joins the Eurozone, and more Subscribe here:

Global reaction is split. Oil markets? Muted. Global oversupply and intact Venezuelan infrastructure are capping any price spike. IEA projects a 3.8M bpd surplus this year.

His son "Nicolasito" aka "The Prince" is named in the indictment but was not arrested. VP Delcy Rodriguez is now acting president. Rubio says the US has imposed an "oil quarantine." Trump says the US will "run the country" until stability is restored.

US forces captured Maduro in a precision strike on Caracas Saturday. At least 80 dead. 150+ aircraft deployed from 20 bases. He faces arraignment today in Manhattan on narco-terrorism and weapons charges. His wife Cilia Flores also charged. Both held in Brooklyn.

Does international law still matter? Or is all this US-Maduro fracas just mere petro-politics with fine-tuned histrionics for global optics? https://t.co/PyRXxgliaR Here's what you need to know 🧵

Does international law still matter? 2026 wildcards to watch: Cuba, Greenland, Taiwan. After Venezuela, does anything still count as off-limits?

Most political risk reports sit unread in inboxes. Too long. Too academic. Too late to be useful. We got tired of that. So we started sending out a weekly briefing that's actually worth opening. It's called Grinfi Political Risk Edge. Short. Sharp. Focused on what's changing

On this blessed #Christmas Day, we wish everyone, including our staff, clients, partners, and friends, a #MerryChristmas and a #HappyNewYear2026. Thank you for your trust and collaboration throughout the year. We look forward to deeper engagement and shared progress in the year

Weekend talks on ending the war in Ukraine continued in Miami but produced no breakthrough. U.S. envoys met separately with Russian and Ukrainian officials. Moscow called the talks constructive, then swiftly rejected proposals backed by Kyiv and the EU. Ukraine supports

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Southeast Asia is facing its most serious interstate conflict in over a decade as fighting between Thailand and Cambodia escalates despite repeated ceasefire claims. Clashes resumed after a U.S.-backed ceasefire collapsed. Thailand has deployed fighter jets, artillery, and

EU to levy a €3 tax on small parcel imports from 1 July 2026

Here are our #topfive (5) calls for 2026. They capture the key shifts we expect in the year ahead and highlight where opportunities and risks are most pronounced. Remember, geopolitical forecasts are never set in stone. #politicalrisk #top5 #GrinfiConsulting

Most political risk reports sit unread in inboxes. Too long. Too academic. Too late to be useful. We got tired of that. So we started sending out a weekly briefing that's actually worth opening. It's called Grinfi Political Risk Edge. Short. Sharp. Focused on what's changing

The new US National Security Strategy signals a Trumpian flexible realism FP focus; a post or even anti-globalist turn that prioritizes the Western Hemisphere and makes the transatlantic partnership more conditional. The strategy questions Europe’s cohesion and even pledges to