European Central Bank Research
@ECB_Research
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Insights, analysis and other news from @ecb researchers. Authors' views are their own, and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank.
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Joined October 2022
New Working Paper by S. Anyfantaki, M. Blix Grimaldi, G. Papadopoulos, C. Madeira & S. Malovaná: “Decoding climate-related risks in sovereign bond pricing: a global perspective”
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Tune in at 14:00 CET for the @ecb @IMFNews Conference on Fiscal Policy and EMU Governance policy panel “Priorities and challenges for fiscal policies in Europe”, with @LaurenceBoone, Marco Buti, @MSchularick, Rodrigo Valdés & Piero Cipollone. Watch live:
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Tune in tomorrow at 09:00 CET for the @ecb @IMFNews Conference on Fiscal Policy and EMU Governance. Featuring cutting-edge papers, a policy panel chaired by Piero Cipollone & a keynote lecture by George-Marios Angeletos, chaired by Philip R. Lane👇 https://t.co/hxM0ElUGKs
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New Working Paper by F. J. Población García & N. Suárez: “A study on the interaction of capital, liquidity and bank stability”
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This figure shows the within-country dispersion for 10 euro area countries, averaged over the 1999-2023 period. The within-country dispersion is measured as the difference between regional and national unemployment rates. Figures are expressed in percentage points. 6/6
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Policy: A flat Phillips curve reduces the power of interest rates to steer inflation via demand. Expectations & supply shocks dominate. Central Banks must rely more on communication & anchoring expectations, moving beyond demand-side tools alone. 5/6
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Beyond slope, we test for non-linearities: does slack affect inflation more in booms than busts? Evidence for the euro area is limited. Once expectations are controlled for, support for nonlinearity weakens—suggesting expectations matter more than nonlinear demand effects.4/6
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Results: We find an alive but flatter Phillips curve. Regional inflation responds to slack, but the slope weakens once we account for inflation expectations & time-varying factors. With national expectations, sensitivity falls by ~50% & approaches zero with country-time FE 3/6
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American Citizens should not have to compete with immigrants and illegal aliens for jobs, housing, education, food, Infrastructure, medical care, welfare, etc. Americans must come first. Video Credit to @TheBrancaShow . I urge you to join his channel.
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The Phillips curve—the link between inflation & slack—remains central for monetary policy. Our paper estimates its slope in the euro area using regional data across 11 countries, a novel approach that controls for both regional traits & national-wide shocks. 2/6
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🧵New ECB working paper by A. Beschin, J. Paredes, G. Polichetti (@PoliGaetanoP09) & @Th_Renault: “The slope of the euro area price Phillips curve: evidence from regional data” https://t.co/LuT0hw3QhO 1/6
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New Working Paper by D. Georgarakos, G. Kenny, J. Meyer & M. van Rooij: “How do rising temperatures affect inflation expectations?”
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Tune in on 4-5 December for the joint @ecb @IMFNews Conference on Fiscal Policy and EMU Governance. Livestream and programme 👇 https://t.co/hxM0ElU8UU
ecb.europa.eu
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New Working Paper by P. Anaya Longaric, K. Cera, G. Georgiadis & C. Kaufmann: “From Brussels to Bangkok: how investment funds transmit financial spillovers”
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New Discussion Paper by M. Lenza & O. Tristani: “Heterogeneity in macroeconomics”
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New Working Paper by M. Giuzio, S. Kapadia, C. Kaufmann, M. Storz & C. Weistroffer: “Macroprudential policy, monetary policy and non-bank financial intermediation”
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The effect is more pronounced for weakly capitalized and less liquid banks, and those relying more on uninsured deposits. Moreover, banks respond to growing unrealized losses by raising capital and passing through interest rate increases to depositors more swiftly. 4/4
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A one percentage point increase in the share of unrealized losses amplifies the contractionary effect of monetary tightening on lending by approximately one percentage point. 3/4
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Meet Jeff! The trader who just nabbed the grand prize in The NinjaTrader Arena Cup and pocketed $100,000. In his chat with Anthony Crudele, Jeff breaks down the mindset, the prep, the comeback moment, and the instincts that only 26 years in the markets can build. It’s a segment
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