If you are looking for healthcare exposure, now it is a good time. But other than creating a defensive part of the portfolio, I don't like the sector fundamentally. It faces cyclical legislative risk, and the business model itself fights its own customers to protect margins $UNH

I believe $MSFT to be fairly valued at the moment. It has a pretty high CapEx going into "AI Infrastructure", but it is considered conservative next to $META for example. Under $400 I would consider adding it to my portfolio. Out of Mag 7, it would be affected by a potential

The Q4 earnings for $META aren't about ad demand. They are about the spending. The market is terrified of another CapEx hike. Especially after Metaverse. If Zuck keeps the AI infrastructure costs within guidance, the operating leverage shines through. That balance between CapEx

Another fun fact about $ASML is their 270+ Days Inventory Outstanding. EUV systems are scientific monuments rather than simple products. No competitor could afford to pile up billions of dollars for nine months just to build a single unit. I compared it to peers in the same

I have seen people mentioning $OSCR as a great undervalued company. While I agree with many of theses about the growth, you can't ignore the cost of that growth - massive dilution.

The reason $NFLX is better than it's competitors like $DIS, is the fact that they have their own hardware infrastructure for which they paid ~$1B. Others have to pay a fee to some third-party for every gigabyte they stream. Netflix already fixed that. Hence the margin difference

$AMZN's Infinite Liquidity Glitch Amazon relies on this little accounting loophole. They collect cash from the customer instantly, but they don't pay the supplier (who does the shipping) for another 37 days. Essentially, Amazon's suppliers are financing its AI expansion with a

A single EUV machine $ASML manufactures requires 3 Boeing 747 cargo planes and 20 trucks to transport. Their capacity is set to 60 EUV systems per year. The target for 2027 is set to 56 Low-NA and 10 High-NA systems. The company can't grow 100% every year without being overvalued

https://t.co/uh86DptSD7

To further support my thesis on $DUOL, here is a part of their document about setting up a Mergers & Acquisitions Charter, which proves they are looking for acquisition-led growth. Were they not sitting on a $1B pile of cash, this wouldn't matter much. But the risk/reward ratio

$DUOL could be one of the greatest opportunities at the moment. The narrative "AI is actually bad for us" alongside more conservative Q4 guidance and the CFO transition all created uncertainty and a selling trend. This table shows notable names holding $DUOL While it doesn't

The buybacks $FLR is doing are another reason I like the company. Their sale of the $SMR shares will be used mainly to continue the buybacks. Alongside their reimbursable contracts, this is what will drive them forward. My thesis on the company is on my profile.

Conclusion: You are paying fair price for Tech (STS) and getting Distressed Gov (MTS) cheap. I am holding this long. It is speculative. Do your own research. For my full analysis feel free to contact me or share your thoughts in the thread.

Risks: • Litigation: "For cause" termination = lawsuits • Leverage: Debt is sticky, earnings dropped. Ratio spiked. • Execution: Spin-off takes time (late '26). Dead money risk until then.

Valuation: At ~$44 ($6.8B Cap), you get a discount: • STS Val (15x): ~$5.25B • MTS Val (8x): ~$4.4B • Less Net Debt: ($2.2B) = Implied: ~$50.50 (+15% upside) If market forgives the Gov business (10x), target moves to $60 (+36%).

The "Bad Co": MTS (SpinCo) Gov business is "damaged goods" post-HomeSafe, but not worthless. • Still holds NASA backlog & Centcom logistics • Valuation: Market treats it as toxic • The Play: Even at distressed 8x EBITDA (vs peers 12x), it creates a valuation floor.

The "Good Co": STS (New KBR) The hidden gem. • Business: IP licensing for Ammonia, Hydrogen, Refining • Moat: ~50% global share in Ammonia (critical for Green Hydrogen) • Margins: 22%+ EBITDA • Comps: Should trade like Linde/Air Products (15x-18x EBITDA)

The Catalyst: Sept '25: Management decided to split the company. $KBR will split into 2 public co's by late '26. • New KBR: High-margin Tech/IP • SpinCo: Distressed Gov/Defense

Why it is cheap: In June '25, the Bull Case broke. US Gov terminated the $20B HomeSafe contract "for cause." • $900M/yr revenue wiped out • Reputation hit • Stock tanked ~$65 to ~$40s It's priced for failure.