Serena Che 陈wen
@DeepKpepe
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Analyst at Starlight Capital | specializing in quantitative investment and ESG strategies. share crypto frontier🌐All views are my own,not the company's.
Joined February 2025
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$BTC repeats 2021 double top structure - Same pattern - Same move - Same ALL Do NOT say I didn't warn you...
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👉 Today's $BTC rally also owes a lot to Vanguard’s push. Bitcoin is becoming more and more “legit” in the U.S.
THE VANGUARD EFFECT: Bitcoin jumps 6% right around US open on first day after bitcoin ETF ban lifted. Coincidence? I think not. Also $1b in IBIT volume in first 30min of trading. I knew those Vanguardians had a little degen in them, even some of the most conservative investors
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All smart investors go through the same path: Bitcoin skeptic → Bitcoin understanding → Bitcoin believer The trend never changed. Stay strong and hold your spot bags, my geese! 🪿✨
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Vanguard just opened BTC ETF access for its clients. This is the same old-school brokerage that once said it would never offer Bitcoin products. But think about it — even Jamie at JPMorgan changed his tune. No point holding out anymore.
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Of course, this is all just our guess. In the end, it comes down to whoever Trump decides to put in that seat.
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But personally, we think Waller would be the better fit: dovish-leaning but balanced, rational, communicative, and attentive to market signals. Most importantly, Waller would reassure markets that the Fed won’t go off the rails — something Hassett can’t guarantee.
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Trump says he’s already picked the next Fed Chair and will announce “very soon.” Is he moving the announcement up from the expected late-month timeline? Right now the favorite is Hassett — Trump’s closest economic advisor and a strong supporter of aggressive rate cuts. $BTC $ETH
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But the dip!!!
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In this range, options sentiment rarely triggers sharp market pivots. The next move usually waits for macro data or liquidity shifts to push the trend.
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That means no big fear (no surge in net Put buying), but also no FOMO chase (no massive net Call buying). Risk appetite looks normal, and investors aren’t leaning bearish on direction.
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The 5-day average of total net call-option flow (Calls minus Puts) is sitting around the 55th percentile — a neutral-to-slightly-bullish zone.
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2. “Hold and wait” Do nothing and reassess with fresh data in January. But the public split would drag on for seven more weeks. WSJ thinks Powell is more likely to choose option one: cut in December, then talk expectations back down.
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Powell now faces two imperfect paths: 1. “Cut then hold” One cut in December, then signal a higher bar for future cuts. This calms markets and ends the public infighting, but hawks will be furious.
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Powell’s two closest allies, John Williams and Mary Daly, have both hinted they support a December cut. Daly was blunt: labor-market downside risks are harder to fix than a small inflation uptick, so cutting early is safer.
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WSJ (Nov 24) reports the FOMC is deeply split over a December rate cut, and the final call now sits squarely with Powell. Some worry inflation is stuck near 3%, others fear the clear weakening in the labor market. The debate is the fiercest it’s been in eight years.
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It also calls on Congress to pass federal AI regulatory standards. He’s pushing for a unified federal approval framework to avoid the friction created by state-by-state regulation.
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Will the White House release its AI “Genesis Plan” today? According to Bloomberg, Trump is expected to unveil it today. The order may direct national labs to take on more work in emerging AI technologies and could include public-private collaboration mechanisms. @WhiteHouse
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