Ever heard of the Laffer Curve? 📈. It’s a fancy way of saying: there’s a sweet spot for tax rates where govt revenue is maximised. Too low? You collect too little. Too high? People avoid, evade, or stop working as much.

For India - US Tariff War, if we look at what’s at stake ?. 1. Saving due to cheap Russian Oil : USD 2 Bn - USD 4 Bn annually (the thread attached has detailed working) . 2. On US side of equation = ~ USD 50 Bn of Exports which get 25/50% tariff . So 50 Bn > 4 Bn, it’s an easy.

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*Dovish Powell* confirming a September cut : . >USD▼, Yields▼, Equities▲, Gold▲. >However, as shared earlier, a materially lower DXY needs to have more - maybe a 3 cut scenario. 2 cuts - Sep & Dec is already priced in DXY & markets. Hence a hawkish bent could give a larger.

*Hawkish Powell* pushing back against Sep cut assumptions: The market reaction could be higher here as market is currently pricing in 50 bps cuts by Dec. >USD & Yields▲ .> Equities & Gold▼. >Sep Fed cut odds could drop to 50% (not lower as market will want to see NFP , BLS.

Recent data does point to steaming hot US economy in July, so there’s a possibility that Powell gives a hawkish bent (I’ll lean with this), however let’s look at both outcomes :-.

FED Powell at #JacksonHole Today - What to expect ?. >Better-than-expected PMI reinforced confidence in US economy & pushed markets to trim their bets for cuts a little . > Probability of Sep #FED cut now at 75% as against 92% a week back . Now we have #Powell today, what can we.

400-500 Cr. Through courses ?.

Apple’s India-made iPhones are currently exempt from U.S. tariffs through both the electronics exemption and national security carve-outs. These shields are not permanent, but Apple’s India based supply chain importance may help maintain these advantages.

This also looks in trend to add up to H1CY25 number . H12025, iPhone exports :23.9 million units. Share of US shipped iPhone exports = 78% of 23.9 M =18.6 M units . What we hence have is :-. H1: ~ 18.6 M Units.Q2: 8 M Units out of which Apr’25 alone was 3.3 M units, let’s assume.

Let’s now look at the most recent Q2 (Apr-Jun’25 ) CY25. Q2 Total IPhone Imports into the US : 13.3 million units. India’s IPhone export in Value terms in Q2: 6 Bn USD . Now if we assume 700 $ as ASP, this gives an approximate number of units. At $700 ASP.$6B/ 700 = ~ 8.6M . At.

Not let’s look at Calendar Year 2025 . Apple export of iPhones to the US from Jan - Apr ‘2025 . 🇨🇳 China : 13.2 million iPhones.🇮🇳 India : 11.5 million iPhones. But if you look at only Apr’25 . 🇨🇳 China : 0.9 million iPhones.🇮🇳 India : 3.3 million iPhones.

India’s export of Apple IPhone has been on a serious uptrend. But First, let’s look at how the share of India manufactured smartphones imported into the US has had an explosion . Q2, 2024 to Q2, 2025. India: 13% to 44%.China: 61% to 25 %

White House trade advisor Navarro says tariffs on India 🇮🇳 will likely be doubled on August 27. (Assuming from 25% → 50%). But Apple could get a carve-out—and the data explains why. Let’s dive in 🧵👇.

White House trade advisor Peter Navarro:. >India tariffs will likely be doubled on August 27.>India does want to recognize its role in the Ukraine Russian bloodshed.>Calls India a laundromat for the Kremlin. USDINR slightly higher at 87.33/34.

Markets are basically saying:. “Nice GST cut, but show us how you’ll pay for it.”. Until then → higher yields. So, . Govt’s cut taxes.Bond traders raise yields.Balance restored.

GST Tax Cut Impact:. •Revenue loss = ₹0.85 lakh Cr.•This shortfall if fully funded by borrowing → fiscal deficit rises to 15.85 L Cr ~4.65% of GDP. Since Govt Borrows more (assume additional 0.85L Cr), they have to pay higher rate/ yields.

1.Baseline: FY26 fiscal deficit target = 4.4% of GDP. •Nominal GDP (FY26 est.): ~₹340 lakh crore. •Fiscal deficit @ 4.4% ≈ ₹15 lakh crore.

We estimated Revenue Loss for Central Govt at ~ 0.85 L Crore in the earlier post (attached). To make up for this revenue shortfall, . Govt either:.1️⃣ Borrows more (pushing yields up), or. 2️⃣ Dips into compensation cess funds of about ~ 1.7 L crore (Set to expire by Mar’26 anyway).

The GST cut looks small on your shopping bill. But for the govt? It’s a large revenue hole. That money has to come from somewhere.

#Bond traders are allergic to freebies (read GST tax cuts). Sneezing at 6.51% today, #Indian 10-yr bond #yields shot up. ……Why? Because of… a #GST tax cut 🧵👇

Why take the hit?.•Lower GST → cheaper goods → festive season demand boost .•Higher sales lift other taxes (corporate, income). •Combat Tariff slowdown → boost domestic demand → export revenue loss is lower than domestic boost . •Simpler GST slabs reduce evasion &.