Well over 1,000 institutional investors from around the world subscribe to the DataTrek Morning Briefing for its actionable and differentiated investment ideas. Try our daily markets newsletter at no charge with our 2-week trial today on https://t.co/pkogxvd18r!

2/2 ...We can’t think of businesses outside of US Big Tech that could match these types of comparisons. That’s why $MSFT ’s equity market value is the second highest in the world at $3.8 trillion, only behind $NVDA ($4.4 tn).

1/2 Using a run rate based on last year’s results, $MSFT generates net cash flows equal to $PFE ’s entire equity market value, buys a $PYPL in CapEx, and returns capital equivalent to the value of a $DAL annually...

The difference between 2- and 10-year Treasury yields stands at 0.55 percentage points just now, consistent with past periods of continued US economic expansion.

2/2 ...However, analysts’ underlying fundamental confidence in these names is important given that they represent over a third of the S&P. We remain bullish on US large cap Tech.

1/2 Wall Street analysts have high earnings/revenue growth expectations for calendar Q3/2025/2026 for US Big Tech + $AVGO, and a lot better than the S&P 500 as a whole. These 8 names have high bars to meet on the top and bottom lines, leaving less room for upside surprises...

As important as @OpenAI is to US public equity markets, we don’t even know which accounting firm is auditing the company. $MSFT ’s involvement means the books are almost certainly clean, but it would be nice to know the name of the auditor nonetheless.

2/2 ...Absent a very large shock, it is unlikely they will change their views soon.  This should support stock prices through year end.

1/2 @StateStreet's Institutional Investor Risk Appetite Index shows that the “Big Money” came into Q4 strongly bullish and consistently positive on risk assets since May...

DataTrek's Nick Colas: "S&P 500 earnings exceeded expectations by +8.1/+7.6% in Q1/Q2 2025, the strongest comps since 2021. For the upcoming Q3 reporting season to be 'good,' it needs to continue this streak." @MarketWatch @jsadinolfi https://t.co/QbBzVUxJNw

Since the S&P 500’s lows on October 12th 2022, only one global Big Tech stock has underperformed its local index: $AAPL, +80.1 vs. +91.4 pct for the S&P 500.

Since the S&P 500’s lows on October 12th 2022, $NVDA has been responsible for 14 points of the index’s 91.4% total return.  Without this one stock, the S&P’s return would be +77.4%, very close to rest of world performance (MSCI All Country ex-US +74.9 pct). $VOO $IVV $SPY $ACWX

Fed Funds Futures are fully discounting 2 more rate cuts this year but only 2-3 cuts in 2026.  Since this suggests confidence in the US economy, it is a bullish sign for stocks.

S&P 500 earnings exceeded expectations by +8.1/+7.6 pct in Q1/Q2 2025, the strongest comps since 2021.  For the upcoming Q3 reporting season to be “good”, it needs to continue this streak.

Friday’s VIX close of 21.7 triggered our “Buy” signal.  As we published last week, since the start of 2024, the S&P 500 has averaged a +2.2% gain over the next month with an 82% win rate after an initial VIX close of 19.5 or higher.

3/3 ...Rather, it is also an acknowledgement that Tech stocks have historically generated a significant portion of overall index returns. Markets often underestimate the profit potential of disruptive innovation over the medium and long term.

2/3 ...The Tech premium stems not just from enthusiasm over Gen AI; many hyperscalers trade in line with Tech generally...

1/3 Broadly speaking, S&P 500 company valuations come in 2 flavors. Tech stocks are primarily (67 pct, on average) valued on future growth.  Non-Tech names tend to be closer to 50/50 present earnings/future growth...

2/2 …The most successful of these companies are likely to list on American exchanges in the coming years, which is why we continue to prefer US large cap equities over other geographies.

1/2 Just like US Big Tech, VCs are doubling down on what they think is “next big thing”: Gen AI. The AI sector – particularly large/US based – has helped push global venture funding above $90 bn for the past 4 quarters, levels not seen since Q3 2022 according to @crunchbase…

US mutual fund/ETF investors finished Q3 by turning bullish on US stocks and commodities (mostly gold), an example of how each type of investment can find buyers at the same time.