Cycle Framework Insights
@CycleFramework
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Macroeconomic analysis and asset allocation advisory services
Los Angeles, CA
Joined January 2023
Quote of the Day: "I'm looking for about a point and a half of cuts (in 2026). A lot of that is driven by my view of inflation." - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran
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Number of the Day: 3.2 Hirings in November as a share of total employment, down from 3.4 percent in the prior month and equaling the lowest rate since the recession in 2020
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Number of the Day: 2 Number of manufacturing industries, out of 18, reported to be in expansion in December, down from four in the prior month and the fewest in two years
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Number of the Day: 5.9 Spread between the share of consumer confidence survey respondents in December characterizing jobs as "plentiful" and those characterizing jobs as "hard to get", down from 8.1 in the prior month and the smallest since early 2021
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Number of the Day: $424,200 The average mortgage purchase loan application size in the week of December 6, virtually unchanged from the year-ago level
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Number of the Day: 1.2 Percentage point increase in the unemployment rate since the cycle low in 2023, marking the largest rise in an economic expansion on record
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Quote of the Day: "Builders continue to face supply-side headwinds, as regulatory costs and material prices remain stubbornly high. Rising inventory has also increased competition for newly built homes." - NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz
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Introducing the CFI Daily Technical Rundown! 🎉 Beginning December 29th, this piece will be emailed to Elite members on a daily basis to assist with your trading decisions. Free trial available. Contact maryam@cycleframework.com to receive this in your inbox all week.
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Quote of the Day: "In terms of quarter-to-date, we were really pleased and saw a strong Thanksgiving period result. We have seen some pullback in demand post Thanksgiving in terms of traffic." - Lululemon CFO Meghan Frank
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Number of the Day: 1 Number of 25 basis point rate cuts the FOMC expects in both 2026 and 2027
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Number of the Day: 1.8 Share of workers quitting their jobs in October, down from a record high of 3.0 percent in 2022 and the lowest in more than five years
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Number of the Day: $972,401.85 Toll Brothers' average order selling price in the August-October quarter, down 2.8 percent year-over-year and the lowest since mid-2023
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2025 Economic Recap in Under 10 Minutes! #economics #2025review #gold #silver #crypto #stocks #bonds
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Quote of the Day: "It's a good time for the Fed to cautiously reduce rates again." - National Economic Council director and potential Fed chair nominee Kevin Hassett
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Quote of the Day: "As we exited Q3, I would tell you that the low to middle end consumer continues to be stretched. She is definitely being very mindful of where she shops and what she shops for, making trade-offs at the shelf in many instances." - Dollar General CEO Todd Vasos
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Number of the Day: 6 Consecutive months in which the ISM employment indices for manufacturing and services have both printed below the 50.0 expansion/contraction line, equaling the longest such streak since 2008-09
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Number of the Day: 4 Number of manufacturing industries, out of 18, reported by ISM to be in expansion in November, down from six in the prior month and the fewest in a year
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Number of the Day: 4.1 Percentage increase in Black Friday retail sales, up from 3.4 percent in 2024, according to Mastercard's SpendingPulse
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Number of the Day: -13,500 ADP's estimate of the average decline in private payroll employment in the four weeks through November 8
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