Can't believe sentiment is back at Extreme Fear. Extremes in sentiment tend to be wrong. Just look at this metric's history. Last time sentiment was this low $BTC was at $75k. It ended up being a major local bottom. Don't see why this time would be any different. 🤝

Seeing a lot of Bitcoin "Death Cross" talk here. The last 3 have marked local bottoms. Too early to know if we bounce into a lower high or new highs. But I expect a low local here very soon. 🤝

$BTC is back in the middle of the "Fair Value" region. It is trading below the 50W MA so the weekly close will be crucial. There was a lot of pushback for calling $110k+ "Expensive". But now it's clear the market seems to agree. 🤝

$BTC follows The GLI. There have been some headwinds for Liquidity recently. The US Government shutdown. (ending soon) Powell's hawkish commentary. (getting replaced soon) Liquidity can decline in the short-term, but the financial system requires Liquidity expansion. 🤝

$BTC had a Range Breakdown last week. This is a clear sign of weakness. The good news is that we are still holding the 50W MA as support. As long as the 50W MA holds I expect us to head higher. 🤝

$BTC closed the week above the 50W MA. Now we just want to see some follow through this week. Bulls remain in control for now. Let's see if they can keep the momentum going. 🤝

$BTC base case remains unchanged. Holding macro support level. ✅ Sentiment reaching Extreme Fear. ✅ "Long-term" investors capitulating left and right. ✅ Liquidity set to increase soon. ✅ Zooming out creates clarity among all the short-term volatility and uncertainty. 🤝

$BTC can be quite volatile in the short-term. But the long-term trajectory remains clear. Global liquidity has to rise or the entire system collapses. The FED has to restart QE. The US Government has to re-open. We just have to survive long enough to see it play out. 🫡

$ETH with a big capitulation once we closed below $4k. This week's close will be telling. The bigger the wick it leaves behind to the downside the better. Nice bounce off of the 50 and 100 week moving averages for now. 🤝

$BTC has hit the "Possible" region. The battle to reclaim the 50-week moving average is underway. Whether we hold it or not will give more insight as to what comes next. Make sure to have a plan for multiple outcomes. 🤝

$BTC is back in the "Fair Value" region. Investors were clamoring to buy at higher prices just a few weeks ago. Now, at lower prices, it's crickets. It's easy to be optimistic when everyone else is. It's hard to be optimistic when no one else is. 🤝

$BTC is still above its 50-week moving average. Therefore, the "Full Reset" scenario remains the base case. Could the cycle be over? of course. But as long as we maintain macro structure, I will stick with the trend. 🤝

$BTC tends do well in November. I know many investors have given up on seasonality after "Uptober" became "Downtober". But seasonality gives us probabilities not certainties. It's one data point among many that we can use to make the best decisions that we can.🤝

$BTC loves Trading Ranges. It is still holding above our major pivot at $109k. This will be an important level to watch over the weekend. Let's see what the weekly close has in store. 🤝

The GLI will continue rising and $BTC will follow. The FED is cutting rates. ✅ The FED is ending QT on December 1st. ✅ The US Government is issuing more debt than ever. ✅ We just have to survive the volatility along the way. 🤝

$BTC continues to hold support above $109k. Therefore, our macro structure remains intact. We ideally don't want to see weekly closes below that level. For now, the base case is that Bitcoin still has higher to go. 🫡

Market sentiment is back in the Neutral region. Crazy to think that just last week it was doom and gloom. This time period continues to look a lot like the 2024 consolidation. I'm expecting it to resolve the same way. All it takes is one big catalyst. 😎

$BTC found a local bottom the moment that Gold topped. This is not a lag-based relationship. This is an inverse correlation between a risk-off asset and a risk-on asset. Investors are choosing Gold over US Bonds for risk-off periods because of currency debasement concerns.🫡

$SOL still looks very solid here. Higher highs and higher lows. ✅ Holding above all major moving averages. ✅ Spot ETFs are around the corner. ✅ I still believe Solana has higher to go this cycle. 🤝

$BTC is at a major inflection point here at $109k. Sellers keep showing up above it in the "Expensive" region. Buyers keep showing up below it in the "Fair Value" region. The winner will likely decide our next trend. I'm still leaning towards upside. 🤝