Blow-Off Top → Recession → Roaring 20’s My Cycle Outlook for the Months Ahead 🧵👇
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First, let me set the stage with where I stand and who I am. Over the last couple of years, I’ve stayed on the right side of the trend, bullish, even through all the uncertainties. August 5th of 2024, September of 2024, April of 2025, each of those moments tested my
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My entire framework is built around what I call the Emotional Gap, a rapid transition from uncertainty and anxiety straight into full-blown euphoria. Market makers understand exactly how to exploit the emotions of retail investors. High volatility to the upside, fueled by
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https://t.co/Ob5z79HwdK A clear example of market makers using retail as their counterparty was back in early 2025. At that time, we actively tracked liquidity traps through on-chain data and price action, which showed us that market makers were positioning for something much
I know it’s painful. I know it’s frustrating. And I understand the fear, I really do. But I still believe this is a "short-term pain for long-term gain" setup. What we’re seeing now are textbook Liquidity Traps, fear-driven moves, designed by market makers to shake out weak
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Back then, I publicly shared that I was running the lowest cash position since the 2022 bear market lows, because I believed it was an incredible buying opportunity, and it turned out to be exactly that. Proof:
I know the sentiment right now is rough. Fear is high, and after a selloff like this, it’s easy to feel like the worst is yet to come. But this is exactly the time to step back, stay grounded, and focus on the bigger picture. Right now, I believe this is a good opportunity to
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Then $BTC and the broader markets bottomed. You’d think the liquidity traps and manipulation would be gone, right? But the reversal was unusual. Instead of any meaningful pullback, the price moved in a near straight-line impulse from early April to late May, straight to new
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“Ok, Luca, but what relevance does this have with anything?” you might be wondering. Well, I believe we need to understand how we got here in order to understand what comes next. The market unfolds over long periods of time, and the path that brought us here is a major clue to
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Once again, if the Emotional Gap is a rapid transition from uncertainty to full-blown euphoria, then market makers must first create the opposite conditions. They need to make the majority feel bearish and insecure before driving prices higher in a low-liquidity environment,
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Now, moving forward, what do we expect? From a technical standpoint, I believe the most likely outcome for $BTC in the coming days is that the price finds a bottom inside the high-timeframe support range that lines up with the November–December 2024 highs. That zone makes the
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“Ok Luca, I get this Emotional Gap idea, it’s basically price volatility that leads to emotions and triggers biases. But how does this actually lead to the distribution phase and the cycle top?” you might wonder. Well, this is where confirmation bias comes into play. Investors
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And this is where macro comes into play: the end of quantitative tightening, the shift toward interest rate cuts, and the possibility of a soft landing. First, if we look at the CME FedWatch Tool, it currently shows around a ~90% probability of a rate cut in September:
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Looking back at nearly 3 decades of $SPX price action, the pattern is clear: the last three times the Fed stepped away from quantitative tightening and began cutting rates, it was followed by a recession and a massive market crash. That’s a 100% probability based on the
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This is because the Fed never intervenes without a reason. Whether it’s hiking rates to combat out-of-control inflation or cutting rates to stimulate a weakening economy, Fed intervention always signals the same thing: the current trajectory of the economy is no longer
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Paradoxically, I believe the very factor that will trigger an economic downturn in the coming months will also be the same catalyst that fuels a full-on risk-on environment in the coming weeks. A very telling chart here is the $IWM / $SPX pair. It shows how small caps have
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As I highlighted in one of my latest FREE Weekly Market Wrap-Ups on Patreon, which you can read here: https://t.co/0sDYgj7Cye The latest macro data also support this environment and the soft-landing narrative in the coming weeks and months: GDP came in at +3.3%, while Q1 was
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Where does this takes us for traditional equity markets and the S&P500? Back in Oct–Dec 2024, we witnessed a Blow-Off Top in risk assets, as distribution kicked in and paved the way for the early-2025 selloff. I believe we’re now setting up for something similar, only on a
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Moving forward, I believe we’re heading into a full risk-on environment over the next few weeks. That’s likely to drive FOMO right into the top, giving market makers the perfect setup to distribute. It’s worth remembering that distribution phases always follow periods of
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Moving forward, my targets for the $SPX are in the ~$6,500–$6,700 range before we enter a durable distribution phase and the economy eventually rolls over. After that, my plan is to diversify my portfolio and ride through the bear market until we see a substantial correction.
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For $BTC, my current base case is a cycle top somewhere in the vicinity of ~$190K before the bear market sets in. I also see an alternative bearish scenario, where $BTC tops out closer to ~$150K. There’s a bullish case as well, the so-called “supercycle” scenario, but I’m not
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Looking at a key GlassNode metric, the Adjusted SOPR (aSOPR), which measures the amount of $BTC sold in profit, I think it gives us valuable insight into cycle phases. At prior cycle tops, we usually see multiple spikes in this metric, which signal heavy distribution. So far,
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So, where does the idea of the “Roaring 20’s” fit into all of this? I believe the macroeconomic backdrop is key. We’re leaning into an environment of elevated inflation, with the Fed preparing to transition away from quantitative tightening and back into quantitative easing.
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The middle class is being wiped out and I believe investing is the only way to protect yourself. If you want to learn how I approach it, you can check out my Patreon, there’s a 40% discount available for the next 2 days:
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This thread took me over 3 hours to put together. If you found value in it, I’d really appreciate your support: 🔁 Like, Retweet & Comment to help more people see it. Your engagement means a lot, it’s what allows me to keep creating in-depth threads like this for you. 🙏
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@CrypticTrades_ Incredible thread, Luca. Is there any inclination on BTC bottom range in a true bear market? If we see 150 to 190, where would you get interested in re accumulation? In agreement with the SPY levels.
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@CrypticTrades_ Your thread is everybody's favorite! #TopUnroll
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@CrypticTrades_ Blow off top ending in 2026 > recession ending in the early 2030s > peak bull to the mid-2030s (think “dot com mania”)
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@CrypticTrades_ One question Luca, if $BTC will top somewhere this year in late Q4, as you pointed out, this means it will need to distribute into 2026 and to some extend $ETH and alts too, no? Do you expect $ETH and alts to run into 2026 or nah? $ETH for example took 11 and 10 months to top
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@CrypticTrades_ I think the roaring 20s has already started, 2026 will be violent and QUICK pull back for crypto, and then will absolutely be violent to the upside until 2029. 2030? Start the depression. A legit one.
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@CrypticTrades_ Haven't seen a better market analysis and explanation since a long time. Thanks a lot for taking time and putting it through 🫡👏🙏🏻
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