Earlier I posted about $CHEX underpricing and nonlinear upside once institutions follow. The CFTC now addressed the second part, by confirming digital assets can be used as margin collateral. Tokenomics drive $CHEX value. Regulations just unlocked scale. Timing matters 🔥

11/ $CHEX market prices 10–15% activation odds. Monte Carlo and poll imply 60% Pre-activation, CHEX shows 5–10x expectation upside. Full tokenomics activation unlocks a 40x structural re-pricing The 5–10x is the expectation gap. The 40x is the activation unlock.

10/ 100% "this year" Tokenconomics activation chance according to David Packham (Chintai CEO) states a 100% activation chance "this year" According to the model, a 100% activation chance should reflect a CURRENT price of 32c This is an underpricing disconnect of 10x

9/ Mapping those poll results to the model, gives an implied Fair Value of $0.20 today. The current market price ($0.037) implies only 10–15% activation odds. That gap shows a 5x disconnect.

8/ The model now also allows backtesting Activation probability vs Fair value So, we ran a poll on CHEX tokenomics activation probability expectations on engaged CHEX participants (N=120). Results were very clear: 60% voted 75–100%, with the median in the top bin

7/ This projection does not account for mania phases, which are projected by the blue curve, which is based on earlier ATH. This upside is compressed as the asset matures in TVL

6/ Before tokenomics activation (@ 5B TVL, confirmed earlier by Chintai) Fair value follows the Expected (black) curve. After activation the curve follows the actual tokenomics and burn (red) curve. And, at 5B activation, Expected Fair Value projects a stunning $1,50 $CHEX🔥

5/ Why does the AMA matter? Utilization is NO LONGER theoretical: AMA confirms at least $300M is already filled. This lifts the downside floor, as well as the upside. Therefore chances of actual activation and thus, statistically, Expected fair value before activation rises.

4/ Each simulation models: -Issuance fees -Trading fees -Utilization rate (filled vs listed RWA) -Burn -Discounting -Probability of tokenomics activation As an example, the current model accounts for a low utilization rate between 1 and 10%

3/ Method: "Monte Carlo statistical analysis" built with many simulations using ranges, not fixed numbers. We analyze the distribution of those ranges and focus on the median Expected Fair Value, given the asymmetrical upside of the asset.

2/ The analysis focuses on expected (probability-weighted) fair value using statistics. Not price targets, not hype. It answers one question: What is the Expected CHEX Fair Value at a certain TVL, before / after tokenomics activation, taking activation probability into account?

1/ We did a Monte Carlo analysis on $CHEX tokenomics. Recent AMA: $300M buy-side filled from the $28B Maluku deal At current (published) TVL $0.72B, this shifts the current Expected Fair Value from $0.09 to $0.12 But HOLD ON - It gets MUCH better! SPOILER: 5-10x underpriced🔥

@CryanTech @ChintaiNetwork I’m already positioned

Elliott Wave could be setting up for $CHEX. Price looking like it's bouncing off the .618 fib level nicely for a wave 3. Conservative case projection 9.8c, bull scenario 13.1c and mania scenario 18.4c. let's see if the upcoming AMA will add some fuel to the #Chintai fire 🔥🔥🔥

Bull flag on the $CHEX 4hrly chart, combined with a Bullish divergence on the RSI and a wonderful retest on the 4h100rma, looking great for another leg up 🔥. Looking for confirmation above the descending trend line. 👌🏼

Now imagine thousands of instances of this all interconnected, without the NYSE fees and spreads. The technology is out there to ensure the next generation of unicorns don’t feel an obligation to list on legacy stock exchanges.

Last time $CHEX D20ema crossed the D100ema price did a 6x from 13.5 to 80c. Well, guess what just happened, again? Be ready! 🔥

$CHEX daily signal got sold into, towards a nice D50sma retest. HOWEVER, the 4hr just DID print a bullish trend signal. combined with 3 bullish drives on the RSI and volume picking up, price is riding the bullish 7-simple. Looking promising, let's see what the day brings 🔥🔥🔥

This deal is a massive signal for where #RWA infrastructure is consolidating. The Maluku Archipelago joint venture is not just one of the world’s largest regulated nature based asset tokenization projects. It shows that when governments and large asset owners move onchain, they

Did you ever notice that everytime $CHEX 20Day MA (orange) bottomed out (SC inflects to 0), there is a price spike afterwards upwards to (or over) the 200D MA? Well, guess what...