Since I don't know if I have time to post tomorrow (teaching 2 classes!!). Here are my model based 2024 Michigan Turnout expectations. Let's see how wrong they can be:.

Giving a presentation on the perils of campaign vendors. Did another audit of L2, this time for my parents. Doesn't have my mother in their list; my dad is listed as living alone. She is alive and has voted in every general/primary election at that same address since 1980!!.

This is kind of remarkable in multiple ways.

Ground game is no match for national tides. Turnout gains over expectations did marginally limit swing to GOP in Michigan counties. Also Baraga is under reporting its vote or something happened to really lower turnout.

Once again, Michigan is much more a story of Wayne and Macomb (sort of Oakland), BUT NOT West Michigan: .Kent/Ottawa/Kzoo: Rogers outperforms Trump, Harris performs above 16 margins. Big 3: Slotkin outperforms Harris (+4 in Macomb?) Trump outperforms 16 margins.

Well Trump did meet that assumption, and Rogers didn't. So 50/50 seems about right. Let's see if certification fights extend to Slotkin.

That's a massive turnout total from Oakland 777,257. Turnout now looking like 5.68 million.

Turnout expectations stabilizing - looking like 5.57, but Wayne will determine everything. I still only have Trump gaining 23,100 votes out of the 890,084 full reported. Projected to come up 5000 short.

Given the votes still out, and we're looking at 5.56 turnout. I still think a Trump/Rogers win MI is more a coin flip. Oakland/Ingham look 2016 - but Kent/Ottawa look 2020. You have to assume Trump outperforms 2016 levels in Wayne and keeps this Macomb margin.

Big number from Ottawa, almost 180,000 turnout. Trump margin stays about the same from 2020. As of now, Trump's gained about 15,000 votes over 2020. Out of 574,155. I know PA and WI go red, but I'm not seeing it yet in MI. He's 10,000 behind 2016.

We're up to 22 fully reported counties in Michigan. Turnout now looking like 5.5 million. Out of 338,000 votes for president. Trump has gained about 10,000 over 2020 margins.

17 counties in Michigan now fully reporting, turnout expectations slightly higher to 5.5 million. Trump has gained about 10,000 votes out of the 243,000 compared to 2020.

Of the 13 counties fully reporting in Michigan. Turnout is slightly lower than expected. But Trump has gained about 5500 votes over 2020 margins. More a return to 2016.

Of the 9 counties fully reporting, Trump has gained 3337 votes over 2020. Out of 129,330 votes. Project how you will.

that's .35 million lower than NYTimes and much lower than Washington Post.

Of the 9 counties fully reporting - I project turnout at 5.33 million.

Ionia fully reported, turnout at expectations. Margins at 2020.

Michigan rural counties are giving Trump the right margins, but their turnout numbers are lower than expected. The Needle doesn't recognize this because it assumes their turnout overestimate is still right even if county is 100% reported.

Baraga second county to fully report (Trump 65-Harris 35 improvement over 2020). Turnout again much LOWER than expected. 4353 vs. 5078.

So this is WHAT'S WRONG with the Needle - Luce is 100% reported. But Times says it has 30% left. But Luce says they are done. Times is predicting Trump gets 1.3 more from that small county.

expected. not 2020 observed.