Shameless plug on our book with @APerliger called "The Irrational Terrorist" which discusses some of the most pernicious myths around terrorism and discusses some economic and psychological issues around terrorism.

A bit more context. Formula will be uniform based on acres, prices, and USDA cost of production. The $900k AGI limit applies, and $155k payment cap per entity applies as well. ECAP dates as published, FBA payment by Feb 26, 2026. But still adjustments can be made to payments

FYI.

There is some rumbling around that FED expansionary policy (if it were to really happen), would be inflationary for commodity markets. Lower interest rates typically mean weaker dollar which typically means higher commodity prices...typically. There is never any guarantee with

Sunrise over the Atlantic. At the @DELTAPINE NPE conference.

Here is the story for cotton that needs to be told and retold. Yes, production issues, Brazil, tariffs, China, etc. But the story about cotton is demand. For a long time, global demand grew with population growth (and above), especially as income growth occurred around the world.

Let's see...Lombardi Award winner, National Defensive Player of the Year, Big 12 Player of the Year, Highest graded player in college football, etc., etc., etc., but doesn't even get an invite to New York. @HeismanTrophy , make it make sense. Jacob Rodriguez is a generational

And yet again, Democrats do not know how to read the x-axis of the charts they use. And yet again, an own-goal.

I don't think "commodity prices" are the problem...outside of cattle, prices are no where near historical highs. Quite the opposite for most. We can talk about supply chains, imports, etc., all day long, but I don't think the raw commodity prices are the issue to focus on. Just

#WreckEm and Go Army! Beat Navy! In one picture.

Jacob Rodriguez got hosed by the Heisman committee. #WreckEm

What a chicken poo move. I mean, BYU would have embarrassed them, but the poor seniors that don’t get to have one more game for fun.

BYU should be in the playoffs. They won’t. But they should.

I’ve waited my whole life to say this. Texas Tech Big 12 Champs!!! Wreck ‘Em! Great season @BYUfootball. Heads up. You’ll be back again.

Lots of continued discussion about cattle markets...and, well, they are more exciting than grain or cotton. One of the issues that has been discussed is imports and the impact of imports on US cattle. The figure below shows imports of beef cuts, fresh/chilled and boneless. These

Some perspective on the recent Tyson plant closure. The figure shows the average monthly placements in feedlots from @usda_nass database. The long-term trend since 2005 has been a slow decline in average placements. But since 2017, that trend has been on a steep decline. From the

"Let's make housing loans more affordable so more people can buy houses to bring the price of housing down." Uh...that's not gonna work. I love beef and I think people should eat more of it...but shifting the demand curve to the right doesn't lower the price of beef. You have to

Look, here is the unspoken problem with this approach. There is no doubt that American farmers/ranchers have been significantly harmed by the tariffs and trade disputes. Like Trump 1.0, he intends to provide payments to offset losses (at least partially) from the impacts of those

Big 12 Twitter

There has been a lot of press related to packer margins, retail prices, and cattle markets. There is no doubt that wholesale beef prices have been higher than recent years (and retail). But pundits seem to forget that cattle prices have been high too. It's not like packers have

This is the kind of chart the last few months that will turn a trader into a drinker. Am I right @laurenpayne2012? I mean it's not that current price is "bad" but if you bought in after the Brazil tariffs and before the Argentina announcement, you got punched square in the nose.