Clint Ehrlich
@ClintEhrlich
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Attorney | Computer Scientist | Foreign Policy Analyst Formerly: @NSF , @MGIMO Featured in: @WashingtonPost @ForeignPolicy @BBC @DatelineNBC
United States
Joined February 2014
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Pinned Tweet
I have a story the world needs to hear.
It's about how an American hero, Sgt. Ray Jennings, was railroaded for murder by corrupt politicians and the FBI.
And how God used me as an instrument to free him from prison and clear his name. 1/N
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The situation in Kazakhstan is a much bigger deal than Western media is letting on.
I believe it significantly increases the risk of NATO-Russia conflict.
Here is my report from Moscow. A MEGA-thread... 🧵
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The West thinks sanctions are hurting Putin.
They have it backwards: His power inside Russia is surging.
A thread on what analysts are getting so wrong. 🧵
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Russian state television is now broadcasting a long segment about Biden hiring a drag-queen fetishist to supervise U.S. nuclear waste.
Whatever you think about this person's private lifestyle, publicizing it is harming America's image abroad.
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The Russian Ruble is nearing its pre-invasion value.
Sanctions were designed to collapse its value. They failed.
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My segment last night on
@TuckerCarlson
is having a bigger impact than I ever imagined.
It's causing pro-war pundits and politicians to lose their minds!
Let's catalog their meltdowns. A thread... 🧵
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🚨🚨🚨 BREAKING: Russia has fired hypersonic Kinzhal ("dagger") missiles in Ukraine.
Officially, the weapons were used to destroy a munitions depot in Ivano-Frankivsk.
In reality, this is a MAJOR deterrent signal to NATO. 🧵
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They wanted a no-fly zone.
Now they want air strikes.
Next they'll want ground troops.
It's. All. So. Predictable.
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Maria Zakharova, the spokeswoman for Russia's Foreign Ministry, has requested that Western media publish a full schedule for Russia's upcoming invasions this year.
"I’d like to plan my vacation," she quipped.
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URGENT UPDATE on the Kazakhstan Crisis:
There is *breaking news* about the attempted revolution.
One of the conspirators was a Kazakh official who has been linked to Joe Biden and Hunter Biden!
This has MAJOR implications for geopolitics. Another MEGA-thread. 🧵
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I'm not pro-Russia. I'm pro-truth.
These days, that will get you attacked a lot.
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Most people think the alien bodies shown to Mexico's Congress were fake.
But I have the reports from an international team of scientists.
You NEED to read their findings. They all say the aliens are real. 1/N 🧵
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If the goal of our policy towards Russia was to make it a closed, paranoid society – mission accomplished.
But we shouldn't pretend that, any day now, Russians will feel the sting of our economic warfare and turn on their President.
They're more likely to turn... on us.
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Smart people are mocking the idea that the U.S. government is hiding alien spaceships and bodies.
They're wrong.
I've researched this issue for years: there is credible evidence the secret UFO program is real.🧵 1/N
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If anything, the perceived cruelty of the current sanctions is making the West *more* of a villain in Russia.
Some Russians I know who had favorable opinions of the West now feel like they are *personally* under attack.
They resent being the targets of economic warfare.
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This is difficult for people in the West to understand.
Here, we see the invasion of Ukraine as a war of choice.
In Russia, the average citizen sees the conflict as a war of necessity – one forced onto Russia by NATO and Ukraine.
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I'm not rooting for Russia.
I'm rooting against WW3.
The narrative of Ukraine winning is an attempt to suck the U.S. into the war.
They want you to believe that if we just give Ukraine air support, they'll crush the Russians.
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The world is perched on the edge of an abyss.
We may soon see the worst combat in Europe since WW2 – killing thousands of people, and raising the likelihood of nuclear war.
It didn't have to be this way. A thread. 1/N
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There's a powerful lobby pushing for a "no-fly zone" over Ukraine.
If Biden listens to them, he will start a shooting war with Russia.
This is not a drill. It's the closest we've been to World War 3 since the Cuban Missile Crisis. 🧵
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🚨The Ukrainian military is violating the Geneva Conventions.
They're using civilian DHL trucks to attack Russian forces.
That is textbook "perfidy" – prohibited by Article 37 of First Protocol Additional to the 1949 Geneva Conventions. 🧵
Ukrainian mortar team driving around in a DHL truck. The Ukrainian soldier explains that they were given six of those trucks for free by the company
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America: Our biolabs in Ukraine are purely defensive. Nothing to see here, folks.
Also America: GOD FORBID RUSSIA CAPTURE THEM.
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Because Russians do not believe Putin was responsible for the war, they naturally do not blame him for sanctions.
Citizens of the United States did not blame FDR for economic hardships like rationing during WW2.
Russians have a similar perspective on wartime hardships today.
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It's easy to laugh at "brainwashed Russians" and mock the country as the new North Korea.
For the sake of argument, let's assume that's true:
Should the U.S. be proud of a foreign policy that has created a "new North Korea" with 6,000 nukes?
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This was confirmed before the war in research by the Levada Center, a non-governmental polling firm widely trusted in the West.
More than 66% of Russians blamed the conflict on America, NATO, or Ukraine.
Only 4% said the conflict was Russia's fault.
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Putin's base sees the Western pullout from Russia as an opportunity to purge the country of foreign influence.
They *like* the idea of Western companies selling their stakes in state industries.
They *like* replacing Western brands with Russian and Chinese substitutes.
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Many in the West are predicting that this effect will be short lived.
Analysts think that Russians will sour on Putin if the economic situation in the country continues to worsen.
But there's a gaping hole in their theory: Russians don't think the war was Putin's fault.
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There are reports on social media of restaurants around the world banning Russians.
This discrimination has no place in a civilized society.
Random civilians should not be blamed for their government's wars.🧵
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German security forces claim to have disrupted a cell of Prussian monarchists.
They accuse the cell of plotting to overthrow Democray and restore the Kaiser.
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One of the most egregious examples is the attempt to block international calls into Russia.
Today, many Russians overseas are having trouble reaching their families at home.
This makes them angry – but not at Putin. It makes them hate the West.
BREAKING: A potential cyber attack is blocking some international calls to Russia.
I just confirmed this myself.
When I dialed a Russian number, a message played calling Russia a fascist state for invading Ukraine.
It said calls to Russia could go f*** themselves.
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The biggest danger at
#Zaporizhzhia
isn't a nuclear meltdown.
It's that NATO will use that overhyped risk to ratonalize entering the war.
This is classic wartime propaganda playing out before our eyes.
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Russia losing the cruiser Mosvka is hugely significant... but not for the reasons the media is telling you.
It's actually evidence that Russia invaded Ukraine due to the threat of NATO expansion.
Missing the connection? This thread will explain it. 🧵
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Russian MMA fighter Maxim Ryndovsky was captured by Ukrainian forces.
There is a horrifying video of him being tortured. I will not post it, but it's becoming a big story in Russia.
Authentic Ukrainian war crimes are now being used to justify escalating the war.
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THREAD: Today, a time for choosing arrived for America.
A truck bomb has been detonated on the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia.
We're running out of time to reconsider our support for Ukraine attempting to retake the peninsula by force.
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Russia claimed Azov Batallion was holding civilians as human shields in Mariupol, despite humanitarian corridors.
New footage appears to corroborate that accusation. This desparate woman is told that no evacuation is permitted.
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Objectively, Putin's poll numbers have improved since the lead-up to and onset of the war.
This was predictable – a "rally 'round the flag" effect is common for wartime president.
In less than 2 weeks, his approval rating spiked 10 points – from 61% to 71%.
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The Russians who are upset with Putin about sanctions are the ones who already opposed him.
They are a vocal, younger minority inside the country.
But the people attending anti-war marches are the same ones who previously were marching against corruption.
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The conventional wisdom is that we're headed for a second Cold War with Russia.
I disagree. We're flirting with a hot war.
It could involve nukes. Billions of people could die. 🧵
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It's important to note that today is Christmas in Russia.
(They celebrate it on January 7th rather than December 25th, due to the Russian Orthodox church still adhering to the Julian Calendar.)
When Christmas is overshadowed by a security crisis, it's a big deal.
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BREAKING: A hospital in Germany is now withholding all medical care from Russians and Belarusians.
These aren't people connected to Putin's government –they're ordinary people who are now being "unpersoned."
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I'm not arguing that these replacements will be smooth.
They won't stop Russia's economy from heading for a deep recession.
But nationalist sentiments inside Russia right now are so strong, that's a price Russians are willing to pay.
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Victoria Nuland just testified that the U.S. is working to prevent Russia from capturing bio-labs in Ukraine.
If the work the labs were doing was purely defensive... why is that important? 🤔
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I can confirm the existence of these classified videos, based on reliable sourcing.
The military has smoking-gun, high-resolution footage of alien spacecraft on Earth.
Many in DoD and Congress have seen this footage. It's time the public saw it too.
@ChrisKMellon
talking about photographic UFO (UAP) evidence that has yet to be released. This is what congress needs to obtain and share with us!
#uap
#evidence
#ufophotos
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First, the man, the myth, the moron, Bill Kristol:
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Zelensky just warned that Putin may use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
If that were true, it would be an argument for reaching a ceasefire.
Why should NATO continue waging a proxy war that one party says could soon go nuclear?
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First, Russia and Kazakhstan have the largest continuous land border on planet earth.
If Kazakhstan destabilizes, a significant fraction of the country's 19 million residents could become refugees streaming across the border.
Russia is not willing to let that happen.
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First, what is happening in Kazakhstan?
Mass protests and anti-government violence have left dozens dead.
Russia is deploying 3,000 paratroopers after Kazakh security forces were overrun.
The largest city, Almaty, looks like a warzone.
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Most overlooked detail of the biolabs saga:
Victoria Nuland was *directly* asked whether Ukraine had biological or chemical weapons.
And she didn't say, "No."
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Western experts are openly cheering on Ukrainian war crimes.
It's f***ing disgusting – just like celebrating war crimes by Russia would be.
We need to publicly shame these people for acting like soulless monsters. 🧵
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MUST WATCH: American on the ground in Kiev reports rapes, murders, and looting after the government hands out military weapons to criminals.
"The Zelensky regime has gone insane."
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Kazakhstan is the latest example.
In the year before the attempted revolution, the U.S. National Endowment for democracy spent more than $1M in the country.
The money went to PR campaigns against the government and training anti-government protesters.
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People are mocking Russia for using "antiquated" Tu-22M strategic bombers in Ukraine.
Reality check: It's a supersonic plane from the 1970s.
The backbone of American strategic bombing is the B-52, a subsonic plane from the 1950s.
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Germany's Vice Admiral said the West should work with Christian Russia against Communist China.
They forced him to resign.
Wouldn't it be horrible if his message went... viral?
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I love the Western argument that Russia's Kinzhal isn't a "real" hypersonic weapon – it's "just an air-launched ballistic missile."
Ok, if that's so easy to build, why doesn't the U.S. have the same capability?
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The West is pushing Ukraine to attack inside Russia.
It's a great tactic – but a horrible strategy.
Putin can respond by declaring war on Ukraine, making millions of conscripts available.
The conflict would grow to an apocalyptic scale matching WW2.🧵👇 A mega-thread...
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The Kremlin is doing everything in its power to strengthen those sentiments.
It's why, within the last 2 days, it alleged that the U.S. was funding secret nuclear- and biological-weapons programs inside Ukraine.
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Second, roughly one-quarter of the population of Kazakhstan is ethnic Russians.
Kazakh nationalists are overwhelmingly Muslims, who resent the Orthodox-Christian Russian minority.
Russia believes that civil war would entail a non-trivial risk of anti-Russian ethnic cleansing.
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In the West, these WMD claims were met with skepticism.
But in Russia, they were widely believed.
They reinforced the narrative that President Putin was forced to invade – because otherwise Ukraine might use WMDs in a war to retake Crimea or the Donbas.
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By firing Kinzhals in Ukraine, Putin is sending a major "do not F with us" message to the West.
He is reminding the world that, whatever logistics challenges his military faces, it retains an edge in absolute bleeding-edge nuclear and conventional weaponry.
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DISTURBING VIDEO: Ukrainian soldier appears to place an explosive device on a children's playground.
He then takes a cell-phone photo of the device, as if he found it left there by Russian forces.
A Ukrainian soldier in a protective suit carries an IED / Molotov cocktail to the children's playground. Then he sets it up, and the picture moves away.
He then sends the photo to the authorities, which is then published with the story of "Russians mining playgrounds".
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If Russia was telling the truth about Ukraine's biolabs (and we don't know that... yet), we have to reevaluate a lot of things.
Suddenly the claim of a secret nuclear-weapons program at
#Chernobyl
has to be investigated too.
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Warning to Western volunteers: Ukraine has an incentive to get you killed for propaganda purposes.
They *want* Russia to kill Americans, so there will be pressure for America to enter the war.
Know what you're getting yourself into. It's a suicide mission.
2 more Americans in Ukraine describe what is going on with the Western volunteers, and corroborate earlier reporting
Appears to be various elements of volunteers operating now, not only the one Ukrainian Legion
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You can say Putin is on the verge of being overthrown due to sanctions.
Or you can post videos of his giant rally and say it's Hitler-esque.
But you really shouldn't claim *both.*
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What is "hybrid war"?
From the Russian perspective, it is a two-pronged approach to regime change.
First, Western-backed NGOs encourage large protests against an incumbent government.
Second, armed provocateurs use the protests as cover to stage kinetic attacks.
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ESPN anchor turned paranoid xenophobe, Keith Olbermann, says we're traitors
Your nightly reminder that
@TuckerCarlson
and
@FoxNews
are not loyal to the United States of America
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Third, the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan was the heart of the Soviet space program.
Russia still uses it as its primary space-launch facility.
The Vostochny Cosmodrome in Russia's Far East will lessen that dependence, but it still isn't complete.
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Russian and Ukrainian forces reached a local ceasefire to guard
#Chernobyl
together.
The Russians were ready to do the same thing at
#Zaporizhzhya
.
But they were fired on with RPGs -- which set off this whole incident.
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In America, the situation in Kazakhstan is a small news item.
In Moscow, it is currently receiving 24/7 news coverage, like it's an apocalyptic threat to Russia's security.
I've had the TV on here while writing this thread, and Kazakhstan has been on the entire time.
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Russia is trolling the West.
Today, state TV aired a "progress bar" mocking reports that Russia is 70% ready to invade Ukraine.
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In 2020, businesses had to put up BLM signs to avoid being vandalized.
In 2022, Russian businesses have to put up the Ukrainian flag. 🇺🇦
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Today, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said America wants to see a "weakened" Russia.
It's an example of a senior Biden administration official saying the quiet part out loud.
A quick thread on the implications... 🧵
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Congressman who was seduced by a Chinese spy, now vocal about dangers of foreign influence!
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Russia doesn't need a nuclear or biological disaster to win the war in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Ukraine desperately needs a WMD incident to push NATO into the war.
But we're supposed to believe Russia is planning to do the *one thing* that would start WW3. This is madness.
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His video about criminals running wild in Kiev went viral.
Now he's telling the rest of his story – about anarchy in the capital of Ukraine after the government handed out guns.
PART 1 of my interview with Gonzalo Lira.
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Fifth, Russia's nuclear fuel cycle is intimately linked to Kazakhstan.
Russian-backed Uranium mining operations are active in the country.
Uranium from Kazakhstan is enriched in Novouralsk, Russia and then returned to Kazakhstan for use in Chinese nuclear-fuel assemblies.
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To appreciate why Russia is willing to deploy troops to Kazakhstan, it's critical to understand the depth of Russia's vital national interests inside the country.
This isn't just any former Soviet republic.
It's almost as important to Russia as Belarus or Ukraine.
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I knew Zelensky would ask Congress for a no-fly zone.
I didn't expect him to quote MLK's "I have a dream" to do it.
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The threat that Russia faces from Ukraine has been portrayed as the sequel to the threat from Nazi Germany – but this time, with WMDs.
And the crackdown on dissenting media voices inside Russia ensures that narrative remains unchallenged.
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A month ago, people laughed when I warned that Ukrainian forces were torturing Russian POWs.
Today, we've all seen the videos.
Yet another "conspiracy theory" that turned out to be a cold, hard fact.
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Putin's decision to use the Kinzhal is more escalatory than Trump's use of the MOAB, because the Kinzhal is nuclear capable.
Due to its extreme range, it is a "carrier killer" – capable of wiping out an entire U.S. Carrier Strike Group.
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Fourth, Russia conducts its Anti-Ballistic Missile testing at the Sary-Shagan test site within Kazakhstan.
This is where ongoing development of the S-550 ABM system is occurring, one of the foundations of Russia's national security.
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The case also affected me in another, deeper way:
When it started, I was an atheist. After it was done, I was a Christian.
God was the only way I could account for the mysterious force that guided me that night.
Or for the courage Ken and Ray showed, as brothers in Christ.
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David, they're publicly torturing anyone accused of being a traitor.
Ukraine may be the first example in human history of a country that under the pressure of war is becoming *more* tolerant and *more* liberal
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BREAKING: Biden says Putin is a "war criminal."
This rhetoric is a mistake by the United States.
We should be trying to create offramps in Ukraine - not boxing Putin into a corner by flirting with regime change in Russia.
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Twitter just suspended one of the top accounts reporting on the war from a heterodox perspective.
I fear they could come for me soon.
To avoid losing out on my analysis, please follow me on Telegram:
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Collectively, these security interests make Kazakhstan a region that Russia is willing to stabilize with force.
The 3,000 troops it has already committed are not the maximum it is willing to deploy.
If necessary, these will only be the first wave of RU forces in the country.
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BREAKING: Russia is now using Tupolev Tu-22M strategic bombers inside Ukraine for the first time.
When I predicted this escalation of the war yesterday,
@MalcolmNance
called me a "fucking idiot" to his 1M followers.
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Four bad takes doesn't make one good one, David French.
1. Ukraine wants to join NATO.
2. NATO would not “control” Ukraine.
3. There is no comparison between NATO and the People’s Republic of China.
4. If Ukraine was already in NATO, there would be no crisis. Russia would dare not attack.
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The Russians are convinced that NED is a front for the CIA.
I don't think that's true.
But it's a distinction without a difference, since NED has taken over part of the CIA's mission.
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Moscow believes that this playbook was employed successfully in Ukraine to oust the Russian-aligned government in 2014.
And it believes that the West unsuccessfully attempted to employ the same strategy to topple Russia's allies in Syria and Belarus.
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Question for Congressman
@AdamKinzinger
:
You want NATO to bomb Russian ground forces in Ukraine.
Russia will retaliate with missile strikes on NATO forces in Europe.
...What is your plan to stop WW3 once that happens?
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🚨URGENT ANNOUNCEMENT: Free Legal Representation for UFO Whistleblowers
Are you a whistleblower inside "The Program"? (UFO reverse engineering)
I am heading a team of elite lawyers (SCOTUS, etc.) ready to help you.
Secure comms available. DMs open.🚨
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In 1986, the founder of NED, Carl Gershman, said the group was created because "[i]t would be terrible for democratic groups around the world to be seen as subsidized by the CIA."
Today, instead of receiving CIA money, they receive NED money.
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OMINOUS: Ukrainian forces appear to be firing a Grad MLRS from inside a residential area of Kiev.
Return fire from Russia could kill huge numbers of civilians. Scary to see.
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It's debatable whether the West has anywhere near the power to spark revolutions that Russia contends.
Yet America plays into Russian paranoia by funding "civil society" NGOs overseas.
When revolutions occur in countries where they're active, Russia connects the dots.
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Obama's favorite speechwriter says we're on the side of an "entho-nationalist authoritarian."
The first part of that claim shows he has zero idea about Russian domestic politics, btw. Clownworld insult.
We are potentially on the verge of a land war in Europe aimed at extinguishing democracy and sovereignty and the American right wing is on the side of ethno-nationalist authoritarianism. That's where we're at.
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Today, Putin has also taken one step closer to the nuclear threshold.
He just demoed Russia's premier tactical-nuke delivery system in Ukraine.
The message to NATO could not be clearer: If you intervene in the conflict, I will use this system against you.
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NATO-Russia talks to resolve the crisis in Ukraine were set to begin next week.
Yet, on their eve, the revolution against the government of Kazakhstan began.
Russia perceives this to be an act of "hybrid war." Right or wrong, that perception is fueling a desire for revenge.
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🚨 BREAKING: Parliament of NATO member Estonia has voted in favor of a no-fly zone over Ukraine. 🚨
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BREAKING: Poland will transfer all of its Mig-29 fighters to the USAF Rammstein Air Base in Germany, for use by Ukraine.
Unclear where fighters will take off for combat operations.
If they do it from NATO territory like Ukraine wants, a NATO-Russia war is possible.
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