This means that momentum needs to build fast. In order to position itself as a responsible leader in the lead up to COP31, Australia needs to both rapidly reduce its current emissions, and set ambitious new targets in line with the science.

And it makes little difference if Australia continues using a 2005 baseline for these targets, or makes use of the COP28 2019 baseline. This is because Australia’s emissions have changed very little over the past two decades ☹️

To do its bit, Australia needs a 67% reduction in emissions by 2030 relative to 2005, 90% by 2035, and 100% by 2040 if we use a GHG emissions budget consistent with a 50% chance of 1.5C. (More analysis on this here - https://t.co/uBwfpmeVJM)

This requires more rapid reductions for developed parties such as Australia, in line with the Paris Agreement’s text which states that NDCs will reflect common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances.

Instead, how could Australia show leadership? Well, at COP28, the global stocktake text recognizes that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees with no or limited overshoot requires global GHG reductions of 43 per cent by 2030, and 60 per cent by 2035, relative to 2019 levels.

Despite a headline target of a 43% reduction on 2005 levels, its 2030 target only implies a reduction in emissions by about 31% - once LULUCF is excluded. This is much less than comparable OECD countries. Under its current targets, Australia is the worst kid in its class.

Now that the dust is settling on COP28, and with Australia pushing its bid for COP31 in 2026, let’s assess Australia’s existing climate targets and consider what it needs to do to show leadership.

Entering the 1.5C world, it's time for a fossil fuel exit. Phase-in of renewables is key, but only replaces fossil fuel (emissions), if married with strong energy efficiency and dedicated coal, oil and gas phase-out policies. Full briefing: https://t.co/9wvwKxuxz7

The latest temperature assessments of the NDCs and LT-LEDS pledges by countries - and how they fair against the Paris Agreement temperature goals? Surprise: We are still quite far off 1.5C. Here an overview of all the main studies on it. See more at: https://t.co/9wvwKxuxz7

Read the full briefing, and see our comprehensive factsheets, which show historical and projected emissions for 196 countries, here:

....with progress towards stronger NDCs stagnating, COP28's success will likely be measured by whether an equally decisive agreement is reached on the phase-out of fossil fuels. In particular, phase-out of coal should reach at least 90% by 2035 at the latest.

The recent pledge by a coalition of over 130 countries to triple global renewable energy and double the annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030 is a step forward, if achieved. But....

The briefing shows that projected warming implied by countries’ NDCs and long-term targets is still ‘just below’ 2°C if all are met on time and in full - little changed in the last 12 months. It is time to address the main cause of warming: Phasing out fossil fuel emissions.

Today Climate Resource released its 2023 briefing on likely future global temperature rise, with comparisons of our projections to recent assessments by UNEP, UNFCCC, the IEA and others - COP28: Entering a 1.5°C world, it’s time for a fossil fuel exit - https://t.co/9wvwKxuxz7

@UNEP @UNFCCC @IEA @climateactiontr And check out our comprehensive factsheets, which show historical and projected emissions for 196 countries, updated for 2023 -

Stay tuned for an extended briefing of our findings and analysis, as well as a comprehensive comparison of our temperature assessment in comparison with assessments included in the @UNEP Gap Report, the @UNFCCC Synthesis Report, the @IEA's WEO, and @climateactiontr.

This is the key additional pillar to the pledge on renewable energy capacity and energy efficiency needed for these complementary targets to work, help close the emissions gap and deliver a more feasible pathway to 1.5°C.

But, with the stagnating progress towards stronger NDCs, COP28 success will likely be measured by whether an equally decisive agreement is reached on the phase-out of fossil fuels. This phaseout should reach at least 90% by 2035 at the latest.

This would more than double our estimate of renewable energy capacity reflected in 2030 NDCs and conform with 1.5°C aligned pathways in the scientific literature.

The pledge by a coalition of 118 countries to triple global renewable energy and double the annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030 is a step forward, if achieved. The tripling of renewable energy capacity relative to today’s levels would deliver 11 TW by 2030.