Chinmay Tumbe
@ChinmayTumbe
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🇮🇳 Cities. Migration. History. Love. Faculty @IIMAhmedabad . Macro+ @BizEconHist . Author #IndiaMoving #TheAgeOfPandemics
Ahmedabad
Joined December 2014
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Delighted to share the translation of
#IndiaMoving
in Marathi as
#FirastaBharat
by Devayani Deshpande via Sunidhi Publishers,Pune.
The title may convey that it is about the state of Maharashtra's politicians. It is not. It is a general history of migration! वाचा.
Booking...(1/2)
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Student I helped out financially, writes back after 6 years (on the same email thread) saying he's paid the amount back via mobile transfer, with a 'Thank You So Much' and that he's doing well now.
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Now that the virus is in India, a thread 👇🏼 on the potential geography of the virus spread based on known migration patterns. No need to panic but some areas need to be even more prepared than others in terms of medical capacity. First map below shows known hotspots.
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📢The 2023 Caste Census of Bihar allows us to see century-long demographic change in castes for a sizeable Indian region for the first time.
This thread compares the Bihar Census of 1931 with 2023 and reveals: Broad stability+ The significance of migration selectivity (1/12)
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Indian history debates are too obsessed about bashing the British and the Mughals. The elephant in the room has always been caste and gender based oppression. For millennia. Continues today. Every day. And no signs of things getting better.
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Over 90% of Indians continue to marry within same caste/religion (IHDS data). That's unlikely to change soon. What can change and what YOU can change is having meaningful friendships with people outside your social group. Never too late to start.
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WHO declares a pandemic. Stay safe. Some history lessons on the last pandemic to hit India that claimed over 15 million lives or 6% of the population- the Influenza or Spanish Flu of 1918-19- through this thread with newspaper articles of that time.👇🏼
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I admire Dalits and Adivasis and their value system. They are (often) non-vegetarian. They practise 'simple living and high thinking'. They have distinguished themselves in India and abroad. They have brought laurels to the country. My regards.
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If you start measuring success by the vaccines delivered, rather than SMS's, we would all benefit, Sir.
Pleased to note our world-class Co-WIN platform ensured smooth rollout of beneficiary registration for Phase 3 of world’s
#LargestVaccineDrive
In just first 3 hours:
🔸80L+ people registered
🔹1.45 cr SMS successfully delivered
🔸38.3 cr API hits recorded
@PMOIndia
@MoHFW_INDIA
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Being cited as a gentleman professor from IIM Ahmedabad in the Rajya Sabha! 🙏🏾
#IndiaMoving
"The Govt failed India’s migrant workers. No trains to get home.Yet last week BJP sent a chartered plane at 4 hrs notice to ferry few turncoat MLAs from Kol to Delhi! Wish you'd shown same affection for migrant workers"
Excerpt
#7
from my speech in
#Parliament
for
@AITCofficial
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All-India NRC will do to society what demonetization did to the economy. Put more than 99% of the population through needless pain to score a Utopian goal in a field with moving goalposts.
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Five different studies including our paper in Science places Covid mortality in India above 3 million.
Lasting legacy of this administration is to live in total denial of India's greatest demographic disaster since 1918. History will not be kind to it.
#Unite2FightCorona
➡️In response to New York Times article titled “India Is Stalling the WHO’s Efforts to Make Global Covid Death Toll Public” dated 16th April, 2022
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The bizarre agenda on Kerala Covid cases when it has one of the lowest Covid death rates (CFR and excess deaths) in India is mindboggling.
Over 2 Million estimated dead in the second wave...no questions on that, no national inquiry, but hey, let's focus on Kerala.
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First year of IIMA is supposed to prepare you for life. Apparently, three people- Indian Ambassador to Ukraine, Indian Ambassador to Russia and official Spokesperson of India's Ministry of External Affairs, happen to be
@IIMAhmedabad
alum (PGP 1988, 90, 94 resp.). Good Luck!
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Sports meets Archives.
Harsha Bhogle
@bhogleharsha
, etched on the walls of
@IIMAhmedabad
.
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COVID crisis was thrown at us from outside. Migration crisis is our own mess. Day 53 and counting. Start transport options at some capacity, and open state borders for migrants to travel through. Humanity please.
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Our paper just got published in Science. We estimate about 3 million Covid deaths in India until mid-2021, many times higher than the official count.
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Have deep respect for people who clear NET exam in India. Many years ago, I failed it. First question in Economics exam was something to this effect: "State the problems associated with rural-urban migration". I wrote long answer on why it was not a problem. End of story.
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Dr. Rajendra Bharud, administrator in Nandurbar, Maharashtra, is an absolute star. He set up the district's first oxygen plant in Sep 2020 in ANTICIPATION of a second wave based on what he was seeing in US and Brazil. Nandurbar's cases also falling now.
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At least, remove the "Azadi Ka Amrit Mahotsav" from this template...
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Indian men forgetting to introduce women to the outside world.
If anything, she looks even more lively, insightful and bullish on India.
Delighted to meet the one and only Rakesh Jhunjhunwala...lively, insightful and very bullish on India.
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Lot of talk on the scale of under-reporting of deaths in India in this Covid19 wave. My research on the 1918 influenza outbreak in India placed it as 3x i.e. about 20 million deaths instead of the 6 million reported then. A thread on how researchers calculate such stuff (1/n)
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Move over IPL auctions. The greatest bidding war in Indian history is going to start very soon between Indian state governments and vaccine manufacturers.
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Today was the first time in my life that I held a newspaper describing an Olympic Indian Hockey medal victory!
So I went back in time to see how it must have felt 11 previous times.
1928. Amsterdam. Gold Medal. No goals conceded by India in tournament.
Times of India. June 23.
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Wrote a book on migration in 2018 and we had a migration crisis in 2020. Wrote a book on pandemics in 2020 and we have a pandemic nightmare in 2021.
Maybe should take a break from writing books for a while...
.
@ChinmayTumbe
sir, are you planning to write the second part of the book, Age of Pandemics?
If yes, will you name it the Rage of Pandemics (1917 to 202n)?
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70+ million people dead worldwide. 40+million in India. An epoch barely known. My second book is
#TheAgeOfPandemics
! Official release next month. Pre-Order link is up and running.
NEW BOOK ALERT |
#TheAgeOfPandemics
by
@ChinmayTumbe
shows the continuing relevance of learning from the world’s greatest demographic disaster ever to descend upon a country and to tackle contemporary challenges, such as COVID-19. Pre-order the book here:
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It used to be said that one needs to learn 3 languages to excel in Economics in India: Maths, English and Bengali.
Adding Tamil to this list.
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Legendary Indian architect and the only Indian winner of the Pritzker Architecture award, Balkrishna V Doshi (1927-2023), passed away today, aged 95.
A personal tribute to a person I barely knew but in whose creations I had the privilege to work in, and feel inspired (1/n)
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At this rate, Eden gardens will soon be SP Mookerjee stadium. Along with Narendra Modi stadium in Ahmedabad, Arun Jaitley stadium in Delhi and Tejaswi Surya Football Cup in Bengaluru, this would be the new Char Dham.
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Along with mourning for the dead, also a two minute silence for the death of the hygiene hypothesis. The idea that nothing can happen to us precisely because we grow up in unclean environments.
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For all the other evils of India's pre-1991 protectionist stance, a beneficiary was the Indian pharma/vaccine sector. Before Adar Poonawalla of Serum Institute was publicly pleading for help from the govt., his father, was doing the same to BLOCK cheaper imports in 1968 (1/2)
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This requires a Pulitzer. What
@Rukmini
is doing is systematically exposing the hollowness of India's official covid statistics, one state at a time. MP under reporting factor over 40, now Andhra Pradesh is over 30.
At this rate, two million + excess deaths in wave 2 for India.
Here we go again: today, I am reporting all-cause mortality for Andhra Pradesh (population: 53 million). In May 2021, AP saw nearly five times as many deaths as the state usually sees in May
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My father retired today from the Mahindra Group
@MahindraRise
after 37 years of service, much of it under the outstanding leadership of
@anandmahindra
. True to the the company's ethos of 'Rise', he rose to become a group company CFO, starting from the position of a Cricketer!
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UK, Brazil, several countries now have had official inquiries on the Covid disaster.
Millions of pandemic deaths in India (5 different studies) and no national enquiry yet.
Even the Brits came out with a brief report on the 1918 India Influenza Pandemic, within 3 months.
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Indian govt. archives are usually a mess. So a little appreciation note for the Bihar State Archives. Friendly staff. Proactive (many epidemic related files freely viewable on their website!). Attracts lot of people from Mauritius apparently, to trace their ancestry!
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After looking at mortality and covid related data for months, seems apparent that Kerala, Maharashtra and Karnataka are among the most transparent in reporting Covid cases and deaths.
Far too many states are doing a shoddy job. Telangana, probably the worst.
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The first IIM of India was supposed to be in Mumbai. But the Registrar of Bombay University opposed the proposal to have the IIM outside the Bombay University system. V. Sarabhai and K. Lalbhai in Ahmedabad got it to IIMA, then inspiring IIMC. Both founded in 1961. NITIE in 1963.
NITIE is officially IIM Mumbai from this day.
The Ministry of Law Gazette notification on IIM(Amendment) Act, 2023 dated 11th August; & the Ministry of Education (DHE) notification dated 16th August 2023 officially declare NITIE as 21st IIM in the country. A momentous occasion!!
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For the pandemic affected Class of 2022, a box of handwritten notes addressed to their future selves in 2047, to be opened in their 25th reunion year and India's 100th year of Independence. Kept at the IIMA Archives.
@IIMAhmedabad
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The Goa State Central Library, one of the finest and oldest in the country. 4th floor rare books collection is excellent. Librarians are super helpful and themselves have written important books on Goa. An amazing experience.
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My article in the Indian Express today.
Places the potential Covid death under-reporting factor in Gujarat for April 1-May 10, 2021, at 11.
Unfortunately, high chance of 1 Million+ Deaths in India in second wave.
Twitter thread on method (1/n).
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Seeing hoardings of Modi-Trump event , also known as Kemcho Trump, everywhere in Ahmedabad. The madness has begun! Chinmay is staying indoors this week. Chinmay is referring to himself in third person because megalomania is in the air.
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The three-word phrase that is taking India by storm is "Aap Chronology Samajhiye", a lovely line because it can be used anywhere, especially in a history classroom.
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We now have decent estimates of excess mortality for first five months of 2021 for 4 large states (MP, AP, TN, KN) comprising around 300 million people and 21% of Indian population.
Excess mortality in these 4 large states exceeds 500K compared to 46K reported Covid deaths (1/n)
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Tenured academics advocating labour market flexibility is the definition of irony. Lot of problems with Indian labour laws but scrapping many of them, especially minimum wage laws, is brutal. Original Besley-Burgess paper that started this circus has been shown to be problematic.
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"कितने आदमी थे?" बहुत, सरकार | A migration-thread with estimates of India's reverse migration since mid-March 2020, placed conservatively at 30 million or 3 crore or 15-20% of the urban workforce.
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Surat is in BJP-ruled state. Mumbai is in non-BJP ruled state. Really doesn't matter to inter-state migrants with no political voice in any case in these states. They just want to go home. They ought to have been given this option on March 24 itself. Return+Self-Isolation pls.
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In 1543 CE Portuguese-ruled Goa, during a likely cholera outbreak: "Every burial was accompanied by the ringing of the church bell but as the death count increased, this practice had to be banned by the governor, Martim Afonso de Sousa, to calm the citizens."
#TheAgeOfPandemics
#Manipur
govt has called for muting sirens of ambulances in the State to reduce anxiety and panic among people. Sirens should be activated only if roads are blocked
#NortheastIndia
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India cannot compete with the world because of a stupid centuries old birth-based reservation system in land, labour, capital and marriage markets. Not because of quota-based reservations which affect a tiny fraction of Indian jobs and people (most people don't reach higher ed)
So Maharashtra now has 66% reservation -- 50% earlier + 16% Maratha -- or 76% because of
@narendramodi
's 10% reservation? And India still wants to compete with the world on merit!!! Haha, which world are we living in?
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Just watched a lesson on "How to announce a policy rollback". Because somebody listened too much to state governments it seems. Hilarious.
The good news is that we finally have a sensible vaccination policy. We still need to place the orders though.
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Serum Institute of India was built through creative entrepreneurship AND initial state protection. Its time for payback in a national emergency. Their latest announcement should have been Rs. 150 for BOTH Centre and State govt's.
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Bad Assumption 1: Brothers believe in same ideology (they dont).
Bad Assumption 2: Daughter must do what father thinks.
Dr. Anand Teltumbde is a distinguished alumni member of IIMA, who will hopefully be cleared of fraudulent charges against him very soon.
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$45 trillion- British Loot from India (Source: Utsa Patnaik).
Rs. 1.76 Lakh Crore- 2G Scam (Source: Vinod Rai)
Two famous numbers based on little economic logic, used to further political (beggar-thy-predecessor) narratives on India.
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How nice for both my books to be cited by the Hon. MP in the Rajya Sabha today. Next stop: Our 'Science' paper on Covid mortality :)
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India has one of the lowest female labour force participation rates in the world (23%, 15+age, World Development Indicators), much lower than Bangladesh (36%) and the world average (48%). Moving this figure up should be on every political party manifesto but it is not.
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How bad can it get? The benchmark of course, is the 1918 influenza pandemic. In Nov 1918, around 200K Indians were dying DAILY. And that second wave was STEEP. Govt. machinery broke down. Civil society stepped in. Hoping the Covid-19 second wave peaks soon.
#AgeOfPandemics
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IIMA Archives has released a database listing all 471 PhD Theses in 50 years, 1974-2024.
Sortable and searchable by year, disciplinary area, title and supervisors. Thesis abstracts also available. (If only every uni did this!)
Here's the link.
The event also marked an address by Prof
@ChinmayTumbe
, the launch of the PhD programme webpage on the
#IIMAArchives
website and a campus tour for the alumni. This two-day event serves as a forum for our alumni to reconnect with their peers and engage in meaningful discussions.
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Recollecting post-demonetization reactions: Day 1- Wah! Wah!, Month 3- Good Idea, Bad Implementation, Month 12- Why? Why?
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May the Census of India 2021 conduct a Census in 2023.
May the new year be filled with new energy, success, enthusiasm and health for all.
Wishing all a
#HappyNewYear
!
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For those who have missed out on the literature on Covid mortality in India, a refresher in this table. All point to massive under-counting.
Five different studies including our paper in Science places Covid mortality in India above 3 million.
Lasting legacy of this administration is to live in total denial of India's greatest demographic disaster since 1918. History will not be kind to it.
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1960s food crisis=> Record food grain stocks today | 1991 forex crisis=> Record forex reserves today | 2021 medical oxygen crisis=> Hope we have enough medical oxygen reserves in 2050 to support us even on Moon. But why are we always waiting for a crisis?
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Top parenting tip during lock-downs: Get your child addicted to 1,000 piece jigsaw puzzles. Keeps them away from digital screens for hours (so that parents can focus on the screens instead!).
Van Gogh's Starry Night was ear-splitting and took nearly a month. Wave 2 effect. (1/3)
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Today is the 100th birth anniversary of a pioneering management educationist, institution builder and the first faculty member of
@IIMAhmedabad
. My essay on Dr. Kamla Chowdhry (1920-2006) in India's coolest new literary initiative
@FiftyTwoDotIn
+ a thread
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My long essay in today's Mint.
"The great Indian migration wave, which is semi-permanent, male-dominated, and remittance-based, is the world’s largest and longest voluntary stream of migration. There are over a 100 million migrant workers in India."
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The original world famous red-bricked institution of higher education, some 1,000 years before
@IIMAhmedabad
. Nalanda. Is. Incredible. The ultimate pilgrimage point for an academic!
#IndiaMoving
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Very excited for Dr. Amrita Roy, newly minted doctorate
@IIMAhmedabad
(and first under my supervision).
Bonus: She won the Best Thesis award this year. (1/2)
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The central bank of the country mentions my book, and my son, in the "State of the Economy" chapter of its latest bulletin!
@HarperCollinsIN
RBI has been reading
@ChinmayTumbe
👏🏻👏🏻. I hope India’s experiences ar the time of Spanish flu finds space in school history curriculum. Need more such people centric history.
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Delighted to share the newest tourist spot of Ahmedabad: We launched the
@IIMAhmedabad
history exhibit today! Open to the general public, Mon-Fri, 9am-5.30pm. Contact our archives team if you want to plan your visit in advance
(1/2)
‘Brick by Brick: A Journey through IIMA Archives’, was inaugurated today by
@proferroldsouza
, Director, IIMA.
The IIMA Archives preserves institutional memory & holds a large collection of documents related to the foundation & evolution of the Institute.
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Jalebli na Fafdo, World Cup Aapro is about as crazy as its getting!
World Cup finals in one hour, let the games begin!
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India's total fertility rate drops to 2.0 (or a Crude Birth Rate of roughly 18 per 1,000). India's population growth rate peaked in the 1980s. Since then, the natural growth rate has been on a downward slide. This chart captures the demographic transition of India, 1901-2011.
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Our inter-disciplinary research team estimates excess mortality in India from June 2020 to June 2021 at 2.7-3.4 million (most of it in the 2nd wave), using 3 different databases, including the only survey that asked a question on Covid deaths.
Pre-Print:
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In 2020, I was analyzing Indian pandemic deaths of the past.
In 2021, I was analyzing Indian pandemic deaths of the present.
In 2022, I aim to get a life.
Before that, closing out with these two charts that show the broad similarities of 1918 and 2020-21.
(1/4)
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How did pandemics (likely) die out in India in the past?
Cholera: Prevention (Water purification) and Cure (IV, antibiotics, ORT); Plague: Herd immunity of rodents, later DDT and antibiotics; Influenza 1918: Herd immunity/Virus fizzles out precisely due to too many deaths.
If mutations in the virus keep prolonging the pandemic, how did past pandemics die out?
@ChinmayTumbe
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The 1918 influenza pandemic claimed around 20 million lives in India and in all my research in numerous archives, I have not found a single photograph of that calamity in India.
We have pictures of the 1876 famine, many of the plague (see
@visualplague
), but not 1918. (1/n)
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Among the more heartening news of peaceful protests in Ahmedabad is the participation of MBA students of IIM-A. Student Council head few years ago happened to be Muslim, has been vocal about the anti-Muslim hostility in India in general and CAA-NRC in particular. Students get it.
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Over the last week, Covid has overtaken TB as the single most dangerous communicable disease in India, crossing the 1,000 daily death mark and moving into the 2,000 zone. Table below shows comparison of daily deaths in India and US in pre-Covid times. Short morbid thread (1/n)
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Modiji going through files on a plane is cool and all but have you even seen The Shastris ???
#ShastriSwag
#ReadABookLikeLalitaShastri
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New Paper📢: "Globalization, Cities and Firms in Twentieth-Century India", published in the Business History Review.
Thread, with some tables and maps. (1/10)
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Clearest evidence yet of death under reporting coming from Gujarat using death certificates. 4k covid reported vs 60K excess deaths over last year, for March 1- May 10. If true, even conservative estimate (taking lockdown effect of last year)of actual Covid deaths is 10x reported
Gujarat issued 1.23 lakh death certificates in March 1-May 10 period this year in comparison to 58 thousand issued in the same period last year: Divya Bhaskar
This means Gujarat issued 65,085 more death certificates in March 1-May 10 period this year.
65,085.
(1/n)
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Star studded Louis Kahn Plaza
@IIMAhmedabad
with Arvind Panagariya
@APanagariya
, Pranab Bardhan, Shamika Ravi
@ShamikaRavi
, Ashwini Deshpande
@_ADeshpande
, Tarun Jain
@Hyderabadi_chai
and Namrata Chindarkar
@namratarc
, on inauguration day of the
@IIMAJSWSPP
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Kalyani Vartak and I have a book chapter on 'Migration and Caste' that came out a few months back. A very short thread with link to the article in the end. We review around 100 studies on this subject and our own work and propose a framework, as shown in this chart.
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I ❤️ XYZ....the lovaria that's gripped India.
A thread on the various spatial scales that this can occur, starting with my favorite one, recently spotted at the town of Ziro in Arunachal Pradesh, located in the grounds of its famous music festival. (1/n)
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We have a govt. which thinks demonetization was a success when we have a HIGHER cash to GDP ratio today and the HIGHER denomination 2000 rupee note still in the system. Now begins the spin on the current mess. India's great delusion.
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Yet another India map without the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep.
Who even allows such stuff?
The statue of Bharat Mata at the Kashi Vishwanath Dham corridor
#KashiVishwanathCorridor
#DivyaKashiBhavyaKashi
#kashivishwanathtemple
#bharatmatakijai
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Economists who espouse free labour market policies should permanently quit academia before taking policy jobs (CEA, IMF, etc), instead of taking a "break" from protected academic labour markets. Practice what you preach.
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Wrong. Even within India, the study that this article cites showed over 40% of the corporate elite (Directors of 1,000 largest Indian companies) to be Brahmin. Remarkable omission to build a non-existent argument.
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I thought I was good in football till I went to London and did not make it to SEVEN levels of our college team.
Next stop back in India and I was captain of the institute's football team.
The difference in quality is staggering. Gully football has its perks but only that much.
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Last few weeks vaccination drive has been terrific!
In our overall public health sector woes, vaccination has traditionally been a bright spot for a century, since Waldemar Haffkine came to India.
Haffkine Institute in the early 20th c., was what Poonawalla's SII is today (1/n)
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Andhra Pradesh. Haryana. Now Jharkhand. One Nation, One Disintegration. Niti Aayog can now compute a Ease of Nativism Index. | via
@IndianExpress
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It's out! First Book!
#IndiaMoving
@arvindsubraman
@rajeevgowda
Prof. Rupa Chanda
@swatichopra1
@PenguinIndia
Get a copy at:
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On a day like this, you just got to love India. Keep protesting. Peacefully. Economic demonetization was bad enough. No more social demonetization (CAA-NRC) please.
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My Op-Ed piece in
@IndianExpress
on Haryana's misplaced new job reservation law for locals.
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What a lovely Test win at The Oval! Lovely stadium. Lovely cricket. Lovely memories. Recollect rushing from work in Canary Wharf to catch the game at The Oval in 2007 where we won that series. Such a special feeling!
#ENGvIND
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Same batch as Harsha Bhogle and Falguni Nayar.
We’d like to congratulate our Alumnus from PGP 85 batch, Dr Venkatraman Anantha Nageswaran on being appointed as Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) to Government of India.
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Vidyadhar Pathak spent nearly three decades with MMRDA in urban planning and has a great sense of what works and what does not work in India's messy urbanization. New book, at age 78, puts his articles across decades together in one volume.
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How bad was the recent Covid wave shock on rural India?
Very Bad.
Important clues emerge from recently released death data through facilities-based Health Management Information system (HMIS).
First: States that took the hit early on.
Thread (1/n)
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The excess deaths in Madhya Pradesh for April-May 2021 of around 170K is about the same as the reported Covid deaths for ALL OF INDIA for this period. Madhya Pradesh has only 6% of India's population. Let that sink in.
Officially, Madhya Pradesh reported just 4,461 Covid deaths between January 1 and May 31 2021. The excess deaths seen in the same period are over 42 times the reported Covid death toll, though the entire excess death toll is not attributable to Covid.
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Central Secretariat Library, Delhi, is nice: Quick membership process, can inspect all stacks, 1st floor has nice 'Area Studies' section and 2nd floor has the important 'Indian Official Documents' section going back to late 19th c. Digitized docs here:
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