Chew The Stat
@ChewTheStat
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Chewing the fat about sports analytics, data viz and predictive modelling by @ashwalls15 ππΎ
Joined November 2020
Excited to be back again to share the Monte ChaRlo Brownlow predictor for the 2022 AFL season! π
R1 votes will be up later this week (pending AFL Tables update). If you're keen to learn about the model's inner workings you can read all about it here π https://t.co/lJr29nrqFJ
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Fairly unique role at Carlton currently up for grabs for any data types looking to break into the AFL industry. Weβre on the hunt for a Data Engineer to work across business and footy projects - if youβre interested please shoot me a message! https://t.co/5eE3Q2BqfS
employmenthero.com
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Exciting opportunity for any data people out there looking further their career in elite sport business. Come work alongside myself at the Blues in the club's analytics team to help drive club strategy and decision-making. DMs open/link to apply below:
employmenthero.com
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No surprises here as Cripps and Daicos look the two most likely to finish the count with the most polls and the most threes.
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A close count is the most likely outcome, although a blowout margin isn't out of the question either given how far the two leaders are expected to be from the field.
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With both Cripps and Daicos being solid chances to push up into (or beyond) the mid-30s, we are roughly a coin flip to see the all time votes record of 36 broken tomorrow night. 40+ could even be on the cards!
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A few fun ones ahead of tomorrow night's #Brownlow count π§΅ Will be interesting to see how votes are shared between Heeney, Gulden and Warner given how often they'll be polling votes in the same games.
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Monte ChaRlo #Brownlow final leaderboard π
With strong fortnights to close out the H&A season, Patrick Cripps and Nick Daicos look more than likely to have made this a two-horse race. Last year's result suggests not ruling anything out, but this would take something truly wild!
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Monte ChaRlo #Brownlow Round 22 leaderboard π
The scriptwriters have chosen to make things interesting as Caleb Serong & Zach Merrett narrow the gap to the two leaders who both appear unlikely to poll. The ineligible Heeney remains concerningly close to the top too.
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Monte ChaRlo #Brownlow Round 21 leaderboard π
Cripps & Daicos both put in claims for best afield in the Blues v Pies clash on Saturday night, building their joint lead in the process. May well prove to be a decisive match in deciding the count.
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Monte ChaRlo #Brownlow Round 20 leaderboard π
3β£ for Daicos brings him close to level pegging with Cripps, while Caleb Serong moves into the top 5 after his best on ground performance in the Western Derby.
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While the model is now into it's fifth season, the main elements have remained unchanged since day dot. If you're interested in learning more about it's inputs, considerations and how it all comes together, read on here π https://t.co/lJr29nrqFJ
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Better late than never... After some tweaks, refinements and a whole lot of procrastination, Monte ChaRlo Brownlow predictor is back for season 2024!π
Five rounds to play and Cripps leads all comers. If the last few years are anything to go by though, this race is far from over!
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The Monte ChaRlo Brownlow predictor will be back for 2024...just not yet. Still taking time to wrap my head around how 20d + 0 AFLCA votes can possibly result in 3 Brownlow votes, so will check back in with a retuned model further into the season once I've solved that riddle π
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Ahead of tonight's W Awards, check out Monte ChaRlo's @aflwomens 2023 B&F predictions here π Jasmine Garner is favoured to add a league B&F medal to her AFLCA PotY award but could Gardiner, Marinoff, Conti, Anderson or perhaps even a dark horse from further afield pip her? π
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Rookie web scraper here - any tips on how to scrape a nested html table like the SANFL and WAFL fixtures (and associated juniors leagues) on their websites using R? Any advice appreciated! ππΌ https://t.co/quYmQSumq6
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Eight weeks late, but the @aflwomens Monte ChaRlo model returns for 2023! π
Having reworked the Brownlow algorithm, the model expects another grandstand finish with only a small gap between Jasmine Garner (who was unlucky not to win in Season 7) and an open field on her tail.
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