CapexAndChill
@CapexAndChill
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Engineer by day, equity investing by night. Highest conviction holdings are $MELI, $META, $AMZN, $UBER, $GOOG, $ASML, & $BN (NFA) https://t.co/7XjPAlMuoW
Joined February 2025
Hey all decided to make a substack for longer deep dives. Feel free to check out for completely free! https://t.co/xyW2ph8fPI Here's a summary of what we go over. The market sees $MELI operating margins drop to 9.8% and panics. They see inefficiency. I see an optical illusion.
The Alpha Many Missed in $MELI's Earnings Everyone read the Q3 print. But one month prior, CFO Martin de los Santos shared exceptional insight at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia that explained the mechanics behind the numbers. While the earnings showed the what (margin
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$META can do the funniest thing right now and acquire all $snap users for a small price 🤣
@QualityInvest5 The mass exit begins 🤣
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In the meantime I already shared my thoughts on $NU's cashburn in Mexico:
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Most focus on the legacy banks, but weirdly I don't see a lot of talking about $SE's SeaMoney threat in Brazil. It’s real! But looking at the unit economics... $NU still likely has the math to handle it. With cost to serve at $0.90 and 27.7% efficiency. Drafting a full
Let's quickly walk through what the market is implying for $NU Annualized GAAP Net Income: ~$3.13B ($783M x 4) True Owner Earnings: ~$2.85B (Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx) Valuation: At ~$81B Market Cap ($16.90/share), it trades at ~28.5x current owner earnings. The
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$STNE is a buyback machine now. Thanks @ManuInvests for the insight!
@CapexAndChill Recent capital allocation pivot under new CEO (2023). Buybacks have become the priority and they are eating up shares with guidance for acceleration. $STNE
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Let's quickly walk through what the market is implying for $NU Annualized GAAP Net Income: ~$3.13B ($783M x 4) True Owner Earnings: ~$2.85B (Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx) Valuation: At ~$81B Market Cap ($16.90/share), it trades at ~28.5x current owner earnings. The
Attempting to value $NU and the market seems to be implying that Brazil keeps printing cash, Mexico doesn’t self-destruct and Colombia is essentially non-existent. 🤣 Decent margin of safety I would say
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Stop comparing $AMZN and $MELI using US assumptions. The "Amazon of LatAm" label is lazy imo. Bezos played on Easy Mode (stable USD, credit cards, paved roads). Galperin played on Legendary Mode (hyperinflation, unbanked pop, no addresses). Let's break it down👇 First, the
If you had to pick one retail ecosystem investment today… MercadoLibre or Amazon? $MELI $AMZN
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The machine narrative is accurate, but usually, when you spin gears this fast, something breaks 🤣 (specifically: loan quality). Looking at the Q3 credit book for $MELI: Credit card portfolio grew 100%+ YoY ($2.3B). Total credit portfolio up ~80%. Normally that speed kills
$MELI The greatest companies in the world have business segments which each enhance the others in circular fashion. They intertwine and interact, making each other stronger as each one independently expands. This dynamic makes the whole system harder to compete with. This is
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$MELI could potentially find a fourth growth engine in Colombia in the not so distant future 🤝
Mercado Pago está en Colombia desde hace ocho años y $MELI es una de las 10 páginas web más visitadas en el país. La empresa está procesando aproximadamente tres millones de pagos mensuales, es decir, hasta 40 millones de pagos al año. Colombia representa una parte muy
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Nucel is an odd part of $NU (nu’s new mobile plan). Initially you would think its a low-margin mvno. I think they’re missing the point. It’s not a telecom play. It’s a data trojan horse. The hardest part of banking in LatAm is underwriting people with zero history. How do you
Thinking about the proposed Mexico interchange caps (0.6% credit / 0.3% debit). People think this hurts $NU (I mean even I do 🤣), but let's look at the unit economics. Cost to serve per active customer: 🟣 $NU: ~$0.80 - $0.90 🏦 Legacy Banks: ~$3.00 - $7.00 At 0.6% caps,
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Thinking about the proposed Mexico interchange caps (0.6% credit / 0.3% debit). People think this hurts $NU (I mean even I do 🤣), but let's look at the unit economics. Cost to serve per active customer: 🟣 $NU: ~$0.80 - $0.90 🏦 Legacy Banks: ~$3.00 - $7.00 At 0.6% caps,
In general there are overwhelmingly bullish developments happening for $NU but let's take a peek at a little more bearish take. Again, it serves no purpose to be a permabull on any single company and you should always stress test the risks. 👇 My Bear Thesis: The Brazil Playbook
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The poll results are in: 82% for $MELI vs. 18% for $SE. The CapexAndChill community may have spoken decisively, BUT the comments section actually reveals a much richer debate between two distinct flavors of e-commerce dominance. Here is my breakdown of the bull case for both
I will probably regret doing this but if you have to choose one what would you choose? $MELI vs $SE Leave your reasoning in the comments…
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Attempting to value $NU and the market seems to be implying that Brazil keeps printing cash, Mexico doesn’t self-destruct and Colombia is essentially non-existent. 🤣 Decent margin of safety I would say
Is $NU still dislocated? I would say so... this business is still in heavy growth mode in key markets! If they wanted to expand margins immediately they could but they are long-term focused. 🔥
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The more I dig into $NU, the more it makes sense. $MELI wins on defense (logistics/local moat, flywheel, ecosystem). But $NU wins on offense (global optionality). The Asset-Light banking model travels where warehouses can't. With the US charter filing last quarter, $NU's
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$NU's Mexico Bull Case isn't growth, it's Yield. 🐂🇲🇽 I talked about the Bear Case that fears regulatory caps on fees. The Bull Case knows fees don't matter as much if everyone revolves. The Hidden Alpha in Mexico: While Brazil is addicted to Parcelado (interest-free
In general there are overwhelmingly bullish developments happening for $NU but let's take a peek at a little more bearish take. Again, it serves no purpose to be a permabull on any single company and you should always stress test the risks. 👇 My Bear Thesis: The Brazil Playbook
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$UBER Valuation Reality Check: The Headline P/E is Broken. (Lesson is never trust GAAP PE) Screeners show Uber trading at <20x earnings. This is just accounting noise driven by over $10B in one-time tax benefits over the last 12 months. Here is the normalized view: 1️⃣ The Real
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Is $NU still dislocated? I would say so... this business is still in heavy growth mode in key markets! If they wanted to expand margins immediately they could but they are long-term focused. 🔥
In general there are overwhelmingly bullish developments happening for $NU but let's take a peek at a little more bearish take. Again, it serves no purpose to be a permabull on any single company and you should always stress test the risks. 👇 My Bear Thesis: The Brazil Playbook
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In general there are overwhelmingly bullish developments happening for $NU but let's take a peek at a little more bearish take. Again, it serves no purpose to be a permabull on any single company and you should always stress test the risks. 👇 My Bear Thesis: The Brazil Playbook
More Hidden Alpha in $NU? The NIM Illusion Headline Net Interest Margin (NIM) compressed to ~17%. (Wall Street is nervous 🤣) Market Narrative: Competition is eroding pricing power. Reality: A deliberate two-front squeeze. Asset Side: Management is trading Gross Yield for
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Very well said. $MELI looking attractive here!
MercadoLibre $MELI delivered its 27nd straight quarter with more than 30 percent YoY growth 🔥 Q3 Rev +39% yoy Stock +12% YTD Multiple -25% YTD P/LTM EBIT(temporarily suppressed) now at ~31 Use EBIT over FCF for valuation. Captures credit provisioning, excl. credit funding,
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I will probably regret doing this but if you have to choose one what would you choose? $MELI vs $SE Leave your reasoning in the comments…
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Results are in folks and not sure if my audience is skewed to like $MELI more over $NU but I tend to agree. Both incredible companies (I own both now) but the longterm investor cannot ignore the extremely unique flywheel that $MELI possesses
You could only choose one. What would it be? 🇧🇷 🇲🇽
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