Captain Jack Sparrow
@CapJSparrrow
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The Pirate of FinTwit. Collecting the gems from the best FinTwit heads. But If you need a trading advice - better run away!
Tortuga
Joined May 2024
Note for Kevin Hassett: The Fed's target, by statute, is 0%. And a deficit that is merely $600B lower than last year is still far too large. If you cannot understand these two points, you have been in D.C. too long.
NEC Director Kevin Hassett: "It's looking like the deficit for this year will be $600B lower than it was last year... We've got the trade deficit cut in half from last year. And so, all of these things are things that should continue to move us towards the Fed targeted 2%."
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It's very telling that this past week's fall in the Dollar - after the Fed's latest rate cut - wasn't accompanied by any of the apocalyptic prognostications we had earlier this year. The truth is that USD is very strong and that there is no alternative... https://t.co/oXUHNQ6YJ8
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🇨🇳China’s Property Collapse Enters the Final Stage The Last “Too Big to Fail” Developer Loses State Support China’s property crisis has reached a decisive moment. Bloomberg reports that China Vanke, long considered the country’s last “too big to fail” property developer, has
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$UPRO (3x $SPY) - Institutions showed up again after yesterday's rally. If they show up with size after a good sized rally, it's usually to take profits. Yesterday we got overshoot into the after hours followed by a retreat, a test of the position from below, and a retrace.
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update: the wyckoff distribution is unfolding as i have expected, and is following the textbook pathway. if you see the attached chart below which i've updated, you can see that we are in LPSY at the moment. this was one of the reasons, among others, that i knew we wouldn't
earlier in feb, 2025 I called out the Wyckoff Distribution that preceded the Liberation Day crash now in Nov, 2025, I am once again calling out a similar Wyckoff Distribuution preceding the "YET TO BE NAMED" crash the distribution patterns do not have to be identical, but if
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Fear vs Greed
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It’s starting to get really interesting: The AI infrastructure leverage unwind is now playing out in real time💥 $ORCL -13% post-earnings. CDS blowing out to the widest levels since the GFC, CAPEX still accelerating, FCF swinging deeply negative. $CRWV CDS simultaneously
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In the months after the reciprocal tariff rollout, markets got very bearish on the Dollar. Tall tales were told about capital flight out of the US and loss of reserve currency status. None of that happened. Those narratives are dead. There is no alternative (TINA) to King Dollar.
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$VOO - $15.4B at the close. 12th largest cluster. $IVV - $8.3B at the close. 11th largest cluster. Another close near the top of the box. 21 more days until EOQ bonuses get paid out. $SPY, $QQQ
More $VOO, eh? Cool. Just leave it here with the rest of them in this red box that hasn't changed in three months. Since September: - 8 of the 10 largest trades since inception. - 30 of the 100 largest trades since inception. - 23 of the 100 largest clusters since
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Imagine placing double top and go down again 90% 😂
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Hearing that the 'tax cuts will pay for themselves' for the 3rd decade in a row.
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They are begging for a rate cut - they are about to get a catastrophic collateral crisis📢🎯 Equity markets have corrected sharply since 21 November, when the New York Fed President hinted at a monetary policy pivot. The probability of a Fed rate cut this evening has surged from
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More $VOO, eh? Cool. Just leave it here with the rest of them in this red box that hasn't changed in three months. Since September: - 8 of the 10 largest trades since inception. - 30 of the 100 largest trades since inception. - 23 of the 100 largest clusters since
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Japan hasn’t “lost control” of anything. Rising JGB yields + a weaker Yen aren’t a crisis, they’re the strategy. A central bank that: • owns ~50% of its own bond market • pioneered QE, ZIRP, NIRP & YCC • is quietly boosting exporters, pressuring China & still funding U.S.
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Consumer confidence down, stock market up – a K-shaped economy captured in one chart. (via Bianco Research)
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