🚨🚨 PPI Inflation🚨🚨. US producer prices rose 0.9% mom in July 2025, rebounding from a flat reading in June and much higher than expectations of 0.2%. It is the biggest increase in producer prices since June 2022.

Timberrrrr 🪵 📉. Une situation compliquée pour nos entreprises de l’industrie du bois d’œuvre.

2025 U.S. Soybean Production. Industry Expectations vs NASS

2025 U.S. Corn Production . Industry Expectations vs NASS

Stocks: all-time high .Home Prices: all-time high.Bitcoin: all-time high.Gold: all-time high.Money Supply: all-time high.National Debt: all-time high. Inflation: Twice the Fed's target range and tariffs passed on to consumer. Sure, a September cut is a virtual certainty?

GSI, Brock, and Sukup :

Crop Report:

Soybeans 53.6 bpa and 290 ending stocks

Interest rates & monetary policy. 😅

7/. Bottom line:. If August data shows cooling inflation & labor weakness → September cut would be likely/probable. If core inflation holds near 3% → Delay to November would be understandable.

6/. Case AGAINST a September cut:. Core inflation still at 3.1%, above the Fed’s 2%. Shelter & services inflation remain elevated. Risk to Fed credibility—cutting too early could reignite inflation. Only one CPI & jobs report before September meeting—hot data could derail plans.

5/. Case FOR a September cut:. Cooling labor market and soft jobs print. Trump’s political pressure & new Fed board nomination shifting sentiment. Markets already plan for it—skipping a cut could spook markets.

4/. Chart: Fed funds futures show expectations of ~2 cuts by year-end—September nearly certain, plus additional easing ahead.

3/. Chart: Core CPI (ex-food & energy) is at 3.1% YoY, while headline CPI is 2.7%. Core stays stubbornly above target — risk keeps building.

2/. Chart: CME FedWatch probability of a September 25 bp cut sits near 88–90%. Markets are leaning hard; not cutting could spark volatility.

1/.Markets are now pricing in nearly a 90% chance of a September Fed rate cut—but inflation remains sticky, and political pressure looms. Let’s unpack both sides. 🧵.

Le taux de chômage des jeunes atteint son plus haut niveau depuis 2010

L'emploi diminue dans plusieurs secteurs en juillet

Canada’s employment fell by 40,800 in July 2025, following a 83,100 increase in June and missing market forecasts of a 13,500 rise. The drop was mainly due to the loss of 51,000 full-time positions, which outweighed a gain of 10,300 part-time jobs. source: Statistics Canada