So I've been legit working on this for 18 months with
@dfs_Magic_
and everyone at
@OccupyFantasy
.
A smart DFS lineup builder that builds tournament lineups how I want to build them.
An optimizer that's affordable for EVERY DFS player, not just the elite.
It's finally ready!
MMA DFS is the greatest sweat, no debate. Here's what it looks like to sweat (and win!) $200,000 on the main event (by yourself at 2am in your basement):
Does anyone know anything about DraftKings user rbx88??
Look at this run he/she is on...
⏺️Dec 15 - NFL Milly 1st
⏺️Dec 29 - NFL Milly 2nd
⏺️Jan 11 - NFL Milly 2nd
⏺️Jun 6 - MMA Milly 6th
⏺️Jun 14 - PGA Milly 1st
Created a RotoGrinders profile on Dec 16
WHO IS THIS PERSON
Tomorrow, I'm starting a $0➡️$10K challenge on Yahoo DFS. No deposits, start with $0, try to run my bankroll into $10K in 365 days.
Going to chronicle the process to show people how to build small bankrolls.
Any specific info you'd like to see/learn in this content series?
"We have five months without major sports to upgrade our platform to connect users' DFS and sportsbook accounts.
We better wait until the first day of NBA playoffs to begin implementation." -
@FanDuel_Support
i have two ideas
1) build a DFS site with best-in-industry technology and transparent, responsive customer service.
2) create a sports data feed with high accuracy, expediency, and a backup plan when shit hits the fan
not a high bar. hell, could do both at once!
who's in?
So Deebo is coming back.
He's $200 on the DraftKings SNF Showdown slate.
What's the plan?
a) Leave tons of salary
b) Fade Deebo (and then take a pysch eval)
c) Split $250K with 12,700 Internet friends (and tweet screenshots)
From
@SharpFootball
's book (it's great, buy it):
"[Alex] Collins' 50% Success Rate ranked 4th among 32 RBs with 150+ carries, behind only Gurley, Zeke, & Dion Lewis."
He also faced the 8th-most difficult run schedule. And had the
#1
most injured OL.
He's a value this season.
Writing about the Ravens ground game under Greg Roman last season. Haven't seen a more diverse, creative pro running game than this one. The definition of "multiple," that evolved each week based on opponent. So much variation.
crazy to think that someone's going to open their FanDuel app at some point this week and it's just going to say "Winning: $1,000,000" after hours/days of having no idea
Hey
@Edelman11
, congrats on the Super Bowl win! Your performance helped me win $1 million on
@DraftKings
. I'd love to donate to a charity of your choice, let me know!
(please retweet to help him see this)
2.3% of lineups rostered Amari Cooper at MVP in last night's FanDuel Thursday Million. That's ~17,900 entries.
5.5% of those Amari MVP lineups WERE THE EXACT SAME LINEUP, chopping 1st in a 991-way tie.
An unpopular MVP by itself isn't enough differentiation in the largest GPPs
Jon Rahm's ownership across various buy-in levels:
$5: 40%
$20: 45%
$555: 49%
$3180: 55%
Here's the Rahm exposure for each DFSer who max-entered the $3180 (5-entry max). Projections guys naturally have 100%, game theory players naturally have 0 or 20%
"Taysom Hill is splitting reps in practice."
"Taysom Hill may start."
"Taysom Hill will start."
"Jameis will not be involved in any offensive packages."
at this rate Jameis is gonna be released by noon
🎙️Winning Now Requires a Higher Variance Approach w/
@drewby417
🎙️
🎢Emotional Bankroll Podcast🎢 Ep. 1 is LIVE
- Mindsets around big DFS wins
- Balancing DFS w/ family life
- Decision-making during a downswing
- Leaving his full-time DFS job
- and more!
Turns out if you put your focus into optimal strategy & have the most unique lineups of any user in a GPP, you have the best chance of a solo 1st🧠
S/O to
@CFB_Moose
& the
@OccupyFantasy
model, plus
@dfs_mma
for talking through all of the fights with me every week (follow them)
As projections continue to sharpen & sim tools blossom, there's an even greater value on subjective info that projections can't capture.
For every primetime Showdown + main slate, I'll create a thread on where I think projections may be off.
Where Projections Are Wrong, KC/DET:
Reminder that it's *OK* to lose in DFS, especially if you have a high-risk approach.
League of Legends slates played so far: 28
Losing slates: 25
ROI: +75%
I've lost 89% of the time but because I maximize solo win probability/upside, my wins >>>
feeling helpless this morning. all of the social media & protesting & voting won't matter until money is out of politics. the USA has been broken for a long time and needs a complete societal overhaul.
days like yesterday make you want to raise kids in another country.
would have assumed that if I won $70K this weekend, it would have been in the FD Fan Champ.
nope, $20K in the 3-gamer & $50K in Showdown last night. Wins always feel like they come out of nowhere during a downswing
nice to catch a little heat, only took 15 weeks for fuck's sake
Goal this season was to win the Million again. Came close, I'll take $100,000💶💶
As always, our
@OccupyFantasy
NFL Model remains the best.
Still half the season to go!
🎙️I Never Want a Real Job Again🎙️ w/
@BrianHooper__
🎢Emotional Bankroll Podcast🎢 Ep. 2 is LIVE
- Importance of having a community
- Powering through mind-numbing losing streaks
- When & how to evaluate your process
- Obsession is key
- and more!
RIP to Buddy Harrison, a staple in the DC community. Helped kids stay out of the streets. Donated to those in need. Fed and housed people in his neighborhood. Always thinking of others first.
Shot and killed in his own yard.
Fucking sick fucked up world.
If you ever had run-ins with "Tony" from 5dimes or have heard stories...looks like him constantly challenging customers to "come get their money" has caught up with him:
365 days later...
The Yahoo bankroll got up to $2500 this week - with 0 deposits! Obviously well short of the goal.
But $0 to $2500 should serve as a reminder that it IS possible to grow into a sizeable bankroll w/ out a large starting figure.
Full recap in the coming weeks.
Tomorrow, I'm starting a $0➡️$10K challenge on Yahoo DFS. No deposits, start with $0, try to run my bankroll into $10K in 365 days.
Going to chronicle the process to show people how to build small bankrolls.
Any specific info you'd like to see/learn in this content series?
MMA DFS paid for my most recent vacation.
After a glorious 11 day break, I was ready get back to work this week.
Well;;; next vacation is already paid for -- time to starting planning.
✅Win main NFL Preseason GPP
✅Sweep all the UFC high stakes
Leaving today for vacation for a couple weeks before the NFL grind gets here.
The bad: fiancee forgot her passport at home, we missed our flight, so now we're leaving later than expected.
The good: now spending way more time than expected in the new Polaris lounge at Dulles
Pretty sick gift here from DraftKings. A piece of the canvas from
#UFC277
when we attended the event for the MMA Fantasy World Championship back in July.
If you zoom in you can see the blood from all of my losing fighters
Not the result we wanted but a great experience at the MMA live final this weekend.
Too much to ask for a -250 favorite to win for $250,000 apparently 🙃
Congrats to the eventual winner doinky and big thanks to the DK team for an awesome event!
Go make a lineup on FanDuel for tomorrow's DEN-CLE game.
No 5-player combination exceeds the salary cap. Just 4 possible lineups above $59K. Never happened before.
Microdosing won't cut it 👅 going to need the strongest hallucinogens you can find tomorrow when building lineups
🚨🎧NEW PODCAST SERIES
Want to know what it's like to be a DFS pro? How do top players deal with the highs & lows?
I've started the Emotional Bankroll Podcast, & the first guest will be
@drewby417
as we discuss his transition out of DFS.
First episode drops Monday!
I can say hands down that these are the worst (best) Showdown lineups I've ever made.
High uniqueness % incoming (and "currently winning $0.00" in four hours)
It's PGA milly week, which means it's time for everyone's favorite game.
2-part thread.
Part 1: Who max-entered (150) and submitted the least amount of unique lineups in a contest where you could choose from 140+ golfers?
Happy to report that I do, in fact, have screenshots to share today.
It turns out I'm *not* bad at PGA DFS!
(credit to our
@OccupyFantasy
model and Plug writer Niromada for the insights)
Running insanely hot in UFC to start the year. Picked up the 4th and final MMA Championship ticket tonight. Only one other person even has 2 entries.
I can't enter any more quals so hopefully everyone else can now grab one of the remaining 37 spots
Trying out something new today.
Normally just watch my guys miss the cut via shot tracker, figured I'd watch them blow putts in person instead.
Big ups to
@DraftKings
for the tickets
The news is out!
@drewby417
& I will team up for two Showdown strategy podcasts per week for the upcoming NFL DFS season - MNF & TNF slates - available only for members of
@OccupyFantasy
&
@DailyRoto
.
Between us in NFL Showdown:
⏺️$1 million win
⏺️3 $100K+ wins
⏺️16 $10K+ wins
📢NFL Product Details
🖥️Optimizer and Projections
🚀Air Yards and Advanced Stats
🧪Slate Simulations
📈Ownership for Main Slate and Showdown
🎧Pods and Content
Plus a Premium Showdown partnership with
@OccupyFantasy
and
@BrianJesterFF
10% OFF👇👇
☹️Day 2 Without Sports
✔️Woke up to immediately check Mexican League soccer scores
✔️Realized I lost $1100 in LMX DFS
✔️Enjoyed a 3-hour breakfast with fiancee's family & didn't have to rush home
✔️Stole their toilet paper
✔️Max-entered MMA DFS
No light at the end of the tunnel
Awesome video by
@FanDuel
.
Highlights:
0:38 - Chris Conley TD vaults me into 3rd place
1:32 - Need a Julio TD
1:40 - Julio makes a catch
1:49 -
@CFB_Moose
"THERE HE IS" Julio open on the goal line
1:51 - Surrender cobra on Julio TD review
2:11 - $250,000 check presentation
Whether you're new to daily fantasy or you've been playing for years, the excitement of a live event is unmatched 🏆💰
Check out how the $2.5 million drama unfolded on the final day of our 2019
#WFFC
Live Final in Puerto Rico with some help from
@JimSannes
&
@JonDorenbos
📽
Underrated aspect of DFS live final performance?
Replicating your usual process in an unusual environment.
Using my laptop today instead of the usual 2 screen desktop setup to prepare for next week.
May even cut off the WiFi at random intervals for the full experience.
I encourage everyone to enter more UFC contests today.
@DraftKings
restricted my account because they thought I was in 2 locations at once and withdrew my UFC entries. Billion dollar organization.
Not sure what I'm supposed to do while on vacation now
Pokerstars is running the biggest online poker tournament in the history of poker today
$215 buy-in w/ $1,500,000 for the winner!
They have 52,000 entrants so far 😂 WTF
@pokerprojones
One of the concepts discussed in
@NicsPicks
'
@BNGolfAnalysis
involves risk management.
3 areas:
1. Known Knowns
2. Known Unknowns
3. Unknown Unknowns
*Understanding these can lead to huge DFS wins.*
Here's a concrete example for a UFC fighter on this weekend's slate.
🧵👇
sometimes bullying works.
sometimes speaking with your dollar works.
but fucking up so much to the point where you bleed time & money works 100% of the time.
Round 1 of the DraftKings Fantasy Golf World Championship starts today!
#FGWC
Top 150 of 300 advance to Round 2 next week.
Link to follow:
Here are the qualifiers with the most entries (sup)⬇️
A lot of talk
#onhere
lately about NFL DFS changing & game stacks (aka runbacks) being "dead" & no longer "sharp."
Well, it's wrong (in most cases).
We're debunking that myth tonight at 10pm EST. TONS of data, you won't want to miss this discussion:
Leaving today for vacation for a couple weeks before the NFL grind gets here.
The bad: fiancee forgot her passport at home, we missed our flight, so now we're leaving later than expected.
The good: now spending way more time than expected in the new Polaris lounge at Dulles
Reminder that if you pride yourself on your knowledge of a single sport...
It doesn't matter.
I have the keys to every safe
(at
@OccupyFantasy
)
League of Legends, NASCAR, KBO, and now?
✔ UFC
like every year, genuinely, incredibly thankful that my family understands this sick obsession.
(my mom asking what the spread in the Detroit game was when I walked in the door explains a lot of things)