I'm now posting on Blue Sky Social and will no longer use this account.

RT @IRPP: Climate policy is missing in action in Saskatchewan election. The main parties lack serious climate-action plans and polled voter….

Generate videos in just a few seconds. Try Grok Imagine, free for a limited time.

Wouldn’t it be great if the provincial and federal governments could get on the same page about how to clean up our electricity grid? In this StarPhoenix Op-Ed I explain how close the two sides will be with revisions to the Clean Electricity Regulation

Will that happen? We should see this Fall when @environmentca releases a revised Clean Electricity Regulation & the federal government finalizes the design of the ITCs. Here's to hoping.

I doubt @PremierScottMoe will reach an agreement with the federal government on electricity, but we may not need it. A good outcome for SK only requires @environmentca to ensure the CER is flexible & that ITCs deliver funding to SK to cover the investment cost differential.

6. (cont) This is an area where I hope the Canadian & Saskatchewan governments can reach an agreement. Funding from the federal government of $3 billion or more will ease affordability pressures & keep rates lower than they would otherwise be.

6. The design of the Clean Electricity Investment Tax Credits (ITCs) is important. If the federal government provides power projects owned by Crown corporations like @SaskPower with a 30% refundable ITC, then SK will see about $3 billion flow into the province for clean power

5. With higher capital expenditures, @SaskPower residential rate would be 6-9% higher in 2035. This isn't a huge increase, but is a challenge when @SaskPower already has some of Canada's highest electricity rates.

4. The climate benefit provided by the CER does come at a cost. @SaskPower would need to accelerate its capital investments to comply with the CER in 2035. I find that the difference in capital costs would be between $4 and $6 billion by 2035.

3. The CER results in GHG emissions reductions of between 24% and 32% between 2025 and 2050. This is equivalent to taking 9 to 12 million cars off the road for a year. Compared to a slower reduction path a CER -compliant pathway reduces GHGs by 30-40 Mt CO2e.

2. @SaskPower will register a big drop in GHG emissions in 2030 when the last of the coal-fired power plants are retired. With or without the regulation, there will still be emissions in 2035 because there will still be gas plants online. The CER doesn't require zero GHGs in 2035

1. Building lots of wind is a good idea in Saskatchewan. With or without the CER it makes sense for @SaskPower to build a lot more wind. SK has a great wind resource & we are smart to use it. @SaskPower is planning to continue expanding wind & that is a least cost strategy

The key finding in the research is that revising the CER to make it more flexible makes it easier for @SaskPower to comply. The big takeaways from the work are as follows:.

I model two revised versions of the CER & compare it to the supply pathways @SaskPower has presented in their public supply planning sessions. @SaskPower is targeting net-zero GHG emissions by 2050 & expressed concerns about the CER.

A revised Clean Electricity Regulation hasn't been released yet, so I guess at what that might look like based on the February 2024 report from @environmentca

I worked with the @ModellingEnergy team to calibrate the COPPER model for Saskatchewan's electricity grid and model the Clean Electricity Regulations. The scenarios co-optimize electricity futures with Manitoba to highlight the possibility of inter-provincial co-operation.

Is it possible for the Governments of Canada & SK to agree on electricity policy? In a new report for the @ClimateInstit I find that they aren't as far apart as we might think:

RT @ClimateInstit: Important analysis from @BrettDolter finds significant common ground in achieving @SaskPower’s clean energy transition.….

RT @UofRegina: Congratulations to Dr. @BrettDolter of @UofRArts and his research team, winners of @CanEconomics' Vanderkamp Prize for Best….

In summary, it's good to see third-party analysis informing climate policy in Saskatchewan. It's also important to read the fine-print (and the Appendix!) to get a better sense of what Navius modelled. Let's hope for updated analysis when the revised CER is released.