Blue Deer Capital
@Bluedeerc
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Dealer Flows and Volatility To get full access to all our market reads, commentary, and current positions click the link below
Miami, FL
Joined January 2020
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My 5900+ 🎯roadmap
Mild sell from Feb OPEX into early March (<5%)
📈
July OPEX targets 5500-5600
📉
Sell into Oct OPEX retracing entire advance from March
📈
Q4 ramp that takes out prior highs
📈
5900+ by March 2025
📉🐻
Bear market begins, 10 years of 🩸
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What happened to this guy…Did he go back to Goldman?
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To all the bulls who have annoyed the hell out of the last couple weeks, I sincerely hope you didn't get hurt too bad today. Never wish bad karma on another trader.
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For the past two weeks, I've consistently posted daily updates on key trading levels and provided actionable insights in terms of intraday dealer positioning. While most sessions played out as predicted, I realize that these posts only scratch the surface of what we offer.
I'm
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MOVE COMPLETE! Option model missed two days of data, once I get everything added I'll post an update. Slam the like/retweet if you want our next read! 🙂
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ISEE equity Call:Put ratio > 300 today...just the 2nd time in 8 years...historically precedes large declines in the market
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There is nothing to celebrate till the money is in your bank.
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IF YOU ENJOYED MY POST THIS WEEK SHOW SOME LOVE. retweet/like/follow...Might just make the group free soon if I have another week like this.
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Second best P/L of the year today. Never knew how exhausting managing a group would be but worth it after days like today. I’ll be back on Sunday to post my take on the market from here. Have a great weekend everyone.
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An institution/trader just put on a 100M bet that volatility bottomed market has turned down 7 points since trade went off
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If this post gets 50 likes I'll post our new swing position on public feed. I really love the setup on this one. In the absence of a bearish catalyst it has all the makings of a low risk high reward swing entry. Under $5 too 😃All of our last swing trades have been big gainers
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Retail is all bulled up right now...added a bunch of puts today. Sellers are trying their best to be deceptive right now. My time frame for next decline just got a bit shorter.
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I had over a half million dollar swing in my profit and loss last week falling for a trap. I covered a large portion of my shorts on Tuesday and added a good portion back below 2800 thinking we might have a crash drop. There were no sellers and I got stuck in a bear trap.
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Everyone just had the entire day to load up puts again. A gift.
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I always end up posting more when you guys are engaging. It's nice to see people apprciate your work. A big thank you to all my followers ❤️
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The key to understanding these market moves right now is the VIX plain and simple.
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If you haven't noticed by now at the end of each of these volatile days we either close on the low or the high...this is because of market makers buying back their hedge...this all happened in other crashes too...It has to do with "variance swaps" if you want to research more..
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Something big about to happen here soon, fun starts this week. Target 6/19 for your core positions
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I am short 80 $es_f into next week with many other positions. Next week will be a turning point in the markets.
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The wrong names are rallying today...consistent sellers in all the blue chips..AAPL barely up on this move throughout the day...Funds using this pop to unload...Virus names rally (which were shorted to extremes)...Not seeing confirmation on move from bonds..
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Barely loaded up on my short yet...still looking for one more pop this week...bought some short dated puts after the squeeze Friday...Friday close was not bullish...Price and volume should dictate a move not a 40 point squeeze like that.
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Here's a freebie 4/24 XOM 42P @ .18 Lottos plays accordingly
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If you're long take your money quick or at least trim and trail...this is a gift..things can change on a dime
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OG 🔵 🦌 is back (permanently)
To celebrate I have a 🎁
Smash ❤️ for announcement tonight
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Long 1000 SPX 5/13 2400P @.30... high risk high reward play..As I play defense on positions I still want exposure for the shock move we could still get
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Open positions in 125k account from today...will hedge via /es if needed ON
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Probably the last public feed alert for the week. If this post gets over 250 likes I'll post my game plan into end of month though 🧐
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Never forget how fast things can change and that we are in a bear market.
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We have seen very trendy days...This will not be the norm forever...We will start to see huge reversals and fake outs intraday in the next week or two...Markets about to be black diamond level difficulty
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🚨We will be offering a Memorial Day Promotion this weekend 🚨Once this post reaches 100 likes we will be giving away a free month subscription to 5 people. After the winners are announced we will post a discount code for first 10 signups. Like this post to enter!
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2830/35 zone proving to be a great spot to add puts again 👌🏼
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his was a long week and in my opinion I have a lot more clarity on the market. This rally can continue as long as no real seller presents themselves. We are at 50% mean reversion and can go up to 70%. It seems like a lot of funds took their profits on longs, but havent gone
Everything is liquidity driven here. Logic and fundamentals dont matter. We are in this very weird, surreal environment with too much money sloshing around, and the Fed adding more every day. The only way to correct it, is a crash or a Flash Crash...
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You are playing at the poker table with a short stack. The people with the big stacks know you have a bias now. They will give you little wins and lure you in to take advantage of that bias. You will go all in on the wrong hand eventually.
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Use this pop to get short..don't blow your load on the first trade leave room to average one or two times..that's how you trade in a volatile market...No ones getting perfect entries every time in this market.. learn to roll with the punches. Cut your size down and scale in
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If we go green/red today you have your top otherwise all roads point 2900s
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Many have mocked this tweet...not long ago a 140 point drop would have been very significant...I will be the first to say I had targets below 2700 but the invisible hand is hard at work keeping a bid in the market. I still had a great week, entered puts at after squeeze on
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the upside of the range but I will also be hedged and happy to add my shorts and puts at higher targets. Today was yet another glorious day to add puts. Maybe I'm wrong, who knows. I don't really care what others think I'm just here to make money and pass some knowledge
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Given day and the opportunities will come...There will always be more opportunities if you didn't catch a move too. One good trade can make up for 100 bad ones. Just survive
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I will repost this in mid July when we we are trading at much higher prices... We may trade 5050 SPX week could even tail below the day of but IT IS NOT SUSTAINABLE. Resolution of this move will be MUCH HIGHER. This is the last time I will post core thesis publically
GL fam ❤️
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Instead of doing discount for the Holiday weekend Blue Deer Trading is giving 5 monthly subscriptions away. To enter just LIKE+RETWEET+COMMENT and must be following. Winner will be announced Friday. $AAPL $RIG $SPX $SPY $QQQ $TSLA $GOOGL $ZM $WISH $BA $AMZN $BTC
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So in two weeks I post $GSX short which goes over $10.00 profit $TME short over $2 on a 17.00 stock. SPX puts that go from $1.75 to over $10 and today again SPX from $4.30 that go $14.00+...But when I post a .15 cent play which is clearly a lotto the trolls come out.
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Comment your prediction for $SPX closing price 4pm Friday. I'll be giving away one annual subscription to the most accurate prediction.
*If SPX closes over 4700 will also be giving away 5 monthly memberships this weekend.
Like and comment for entry 🦌
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Two I'll mention...I am short $WYNN $DIS for swing trades
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Posted trades and reads for 700 points move in two months at Oct lows (check highlights). Have consistently posted reads/trades that were dead on the money but no new followers/engagement bump last few months. Feeling underappreciated.
Show some love and retweet ❤️
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The numbers do not matter right now, no point in even tweeting about it. What matters are price action, institutional positioning, market maker risk, and your own work and levels. Cut out the noise.
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Going home short IWM/SPY and long vol...watching 2608 overnight
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I've honestly had a rough go at the markets the last week...Did well on the JPM puts which helped a lot but overall was not having the best trades..Got stuck in a thesis that kept teasing me back in before I was going to drop it...got hurt and it happens...(1/2)
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Way To trade vol right now is with straddles or ratio spreads. Time is your friend. Might post some plays I like in the morning.
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get short
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At the moment about 5mil shares of $SPY have traded in the darkpool and it's only 11:20AM...With this many significant prints it could mark a change in trend; will know more by end of day of these prints keep rolling in. I'm currently trying to match the orders and see if
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My goal in the group is not to have everyone mimic my trades you will learn nothing. My goal is educate members on what to watch for and learn from the mistakes I've made; that every trader must make. I made my biggest headway as a trader when I looked for help/got a mentor.
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Since the open we have had bearish divergence across index's and intraday a growing bullish divergence formed on VIX...This will be corrected this week.
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Loaded the truck up at the 2885/90 zone with all those cheap puts + added to my core shorts. All week just been accumulating across my different time frames. $PINS usual put activity all day too.
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I post lows real-time and get 10 likes. Screw twitter. Keep following the casuals because it fits your bias.
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Added two new plays today. 300 likes and I'll share one 75 retweets I'll share both🙂
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Since Monday I have noted institutional traders accumulating large put positions with a 3-4 week time frame, much larger than the usual blocks/sweeps we have recently seen. My initial thought was in two weeks we will know if the virus spread during
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WHAT A DAY!! Nailed every move...Shorted the open, Covered 2960 and went all out calls, sold 2790 and shorted it all over again, covered 2760 again and went long huge into the close...Holding: $SPX 2800C @ 17.60, $BA 140C @ 2.00, $SDC 4.5 @ .11, and $ES_F long @ 2809.55
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Posted the $TSLA alert real-time on twitter and recorded this video prior to Fridays move (second half is update post move). Full video is uploaded on our discord.
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Huge Sweepers just hit on 7/31 SPX puts 3000,3025,3050 puts all above ask...80M total between them all.
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there tied to options but so far don't see anything that accounts for that size. Will keep you posted. The trades were on spot 312.70 for $SPY and from what I can tell are all sells. Looking to see if tied to options now.
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Hot take: We trade 5900+ by end of year
I'll reiterate this in early March
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I hate the part of this business where you need to shout from rooftops you made the right call to show competence. If you trade long enough your mind will become jaded. At least for me the only way I believe anything posted is if you made the call beforehand and you actually
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Everyone is going to lose, loses are inevitable. Learning how to manage your mental during those times is one of the hardest things in trading. Learning to sit on your hands is an invaluable skill. Just make sure you never put yourself in a position to get blown out on any...
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I pointed this out two months ago. I wasn't sure at the time and still am not entirely. These huge dark pool orders come in every time we test major support, without fail. Invisible hand is hard at work in my opinion. If I was Powell that's where I'm using my ammo too
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Millions of spy calls ITM just got closed out on last dip...Just observation...been watching for stuff like this all day
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I'll take it on the chin and make sure I make the proper moves to avoid the next punch if that's the setup were presented with next week. There is no value going long here for me and I may miss some trades if we move higher.
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This is just my short term trading account, I was wrong on that 5120-25 $SPX area. I'm a big boy I'll take it on the chin but overall I know this move is a gift and 5050 is a level we've mentioned since the highs of this move as ideal loading zone. Onto the next
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Directly after 3419.50 high I called for a move to 3200-3230.. No "if we trade here this happens"... If you appreciate my work please retweet 🙂
ES- It pivoted to the downside from above 3414 but below 3430... Now I am thinking that the 3419.50 high today ended the entire recovery rally period off of the 9/08 low at 3295.50, and if that is accurate, ES is heading for a test of 3295.50 next, and should break it, in
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Will be in full positions on swing longs by 4/17
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Green days we close on highs...red days we close on lows..there's some theory behind this but with VIX this high expect this trend to continue and don't let the close impact your trades.
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I am not upset and this happens to every trader at every level of the game. The only thing that matters is that your never exposed enough to be wiped out when your wrong. I lost a lot of profit but I knew the risk and understood I could get screwed. And I did.
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Just posted some of my work from this AM. I am going to explain the things I watch during the day and tools I use for observation. I always start the day with technical analysis. I never trade solely off technical analysis but if everyone is watching these levels you are
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I mentioned yesterday it's important to know when you need to leave the desk or put hurdles in so you can't give $$ money back. Well my hurdle is having a fuck around account that I'll put 5-10k in and play risky trades. Check the day change. Nailed SPX both ways and EOD lottos
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If we open here, a huge downside move is coming. $es_f last 2784.50
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To explain what sweeps are and why they are important. A sweep is when an institution/trader wants to get in a trade right then and there without trying to negotiate a better price (which is block execution)..They will get filled across multiple exchanges at the (1/4)
I got discount codes for my group for two services I use everyday. This software lets you monitor new opening positions on institutional level option trade and darkpool and which is similar platform but gives you more indepth...
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Trading $6.20 now..still holding
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Another freebie HTHT 5/15 25P @.40 cents ....Chinese hotel company with a lot of unusual put activity last week or two
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@TicTocTick
China bear market complete with clear runway to ease policy while the rest of the world just getting started hiking. They’ll watch us self destruct on our own at one point. They’ll take a hit during that period but they’ll have a growth cycle after that US won’t.
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You can say whatever you want to the marketing gurus who post after the fact. All my post are time stamped here. I don't take 20 trades and just post the couple that hit like
@smartertrader
or the other schmucks. He posted $GME could go 200+ today...If you actually understood
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Fyi: I am partially positioned for the final wave down from here but before I put my bigger trade on $SPX I will wait for confirm of final wave at targets breaking below or 3000+ to add full position.
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Trading 1.70 got the low tic on that shake out. 😀
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Taking this queen to visit the in-laws in 🇧🇷 this month. I don’t speak Portuguese and they don’t speak English so I’ll have plenty of time to figure out the best path forward on our trip 😂
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