Black Bird Group
@Black_BirdGroup
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OSINT group based in Finland. Currently focused on following and analyzing the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Finland
Joined August 2022
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Sitrep - War in Gaza
With the news of ceasefire between IDF and Hamas, we're sharing some of our observations. We focus on military situation on the ground in Gaza based on open sources.
This is a short thread about the situation on the ground during the past month. /1
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There has been a lot of videos and pictures of recent Ukrainian losses near the village of Robotyne. Black Bird Group is trying to get high-resolution satellite imagery of the area in order to confirm the scale of losses and help geolocation, but the weather is cloudy. 1/2
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Last night we tested a brand new, in-house base map, hoping to. at some point, transition to that from the CyclOSM that we currently use.
In less than 5 hours, we got over 200 000 tile requests. In terms of absolute users, it's not mindblowing, but this was Finnish nighttime.
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As soon as the sky clears and satellite overflights match our needs, we can get new material. Meanwhile we will keep monitoring the area and the overall situation.
Group members
@emilkastehelmi
,
@J_JHelin
,
@EerikMatero
and
@Inkvisiit
will post updates of new developments. 2/2
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Our group is actively tracking both 🇷🇺 & 🇺🇦 units. As you can see from this map, the Russians are putting heavy pressure against limited Ukrainian forces.
Check this thread for our comprehensive Chasiv Yar analysis.
Russians likely have elements of the following units in Chasiv Yar:
98th Guards Airborne Division
11th Guards Air Assault Brigade
4th, 85th and 200th Motorized rifle brigades
Some additional regiments from other units and also territorial/reserve regiments
12/
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We've spent a good chunk of the day observing the emerging situation between Israel and Palestine.
Here is a condensation of our observations and thoughts so far.
It's likely that the situation is going to change rapidly in the next 12-24 hours.
Many people have asked for a map of events in the Gaza strip area today. In this thread, some main points and developments.
Hamas attacked on a wide front and quickly overran Israeli border defences in multiple areas. Hamas forces advanced into multiple border towns. 1/
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Our latest Ukraine assessment is here!
In 2023, only minor changes on the frontline were seen. However, the last year's events still shaped the basis for upcoming operations significantly.
As 2024 begins, the war in Ukraine continues. A thread about how some last year's key developments will shape this year.
First, the numbers: According to our estimate, Russia occupied roughly 18.26 % of Ukraine on 1.1.2023. A year later, Russia occupies a bit over 18.27 %. 1/
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A comprehensive Krynky assessment from our team member
@emilkastehelmi
with some interesting, very high resolution satellite images!
Check it out.
Ukrainian operations on the eastern bank of the Dnipro river, in the village of Krynky, have been ongoing since October 2023.
In this thread, I'll analyze the current situation and the future of the bridgehead in Krynky.
The thread includes high-resolution satellite images. 1/
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Another interesting characteristic is IDFs use of bulldozers. Their D9 type bulldozers seem to have several functions supporting the attack:
-Enhancing movement of track vehicles
-Clearing mines and obstacles
-Building outposts
-Demolishing buildings and tunnels 8/
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We have been experiencing some technical issues and therefore have been unable to update our map. Apologies for the inconvenience and thank you for understanding.
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Announcement!
Maps are a good way to produce clear information about ongoing conflicts. We have decided to publish a map of the Israeli ground operation in Gaza alongside our Ukraine map.
The map focuses on the military situation, not politics. 1/
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Some observations: There is only a little evidence of drone and IED use by Hamas. These weapons were speculated to have major impact on the war, or at least more so than we're now seeing. This could be due to OPSEC or simply not having the capabilities. 6/
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IDF manoeuvres advanced with relative speed. Especially in the Southern direction the attacking force reached the Mediterranean coast in days. Gaza City was cut off from the rest of the Strip.
Hamas mounted guerrilla defence based on urban areas and tunnel networks. 4/
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SITREP - War in Gaza. A look at what we have seen so far regarding the Battle of Khan Yunis. 1/
We follow the situation with our interactive map, updated daily here:
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One possible scenario for IDF is to encircle districts of the City and push Hamas out sector by sector. Urban warfare is considered costly and time-consuming, but so far IDF seems to have advanced relatively fast in dense areas. This would align with their doctrine so far. 11/
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What's also missing from the SA is tunnel warfare. There is a lot of data from both sides from and of the tunnels, but none that indicate infantry combat in them.
This could be due to IDF making the choice of not going there due to high risk involved. 7/
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Our team continues to follow the developments in Gaza. Please follow Black Bird Group for future updates. 13/13
Our interactive Israel-Gaza situational map (updated daily) can be found here:
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IDF spearheads from North and South meet on the coast. After battles around Al-Shifa hospital, somewhat symbolic of the war, the encirclement of the City was complete. In Beit Hanoun direction IDF advances towards Jabalia district. Direction of attack turn to inner Gaza City. 5/
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Oct 27th IDF started a ground assault on Northern Gaza. The attack begun from three directions by at least two divisions.
Attacking force consisted of mainly armored- and infantry brigades enforced with fe. land moving capabilities. 3/
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Since there is overflow of information and material emerging from this war, we've used geolocated data points from likes of
@GeoConfirmed
to form situational awareness and create our map and analysis.
12/
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Background in short:
After Oct 7th attack by Hamas, highest casualty terror attack on Israels soil, IDF conscripted a record amount of troops from it's reserve: ~360 000 pax, whom were deployed to directions of Gaza, Blue Line, Golan Heights and West Bank. 2/
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What's next?
Much depends on the ceasefire.
Successful swap of prisoners and humanitarian aid to Gaza are top interests in the short term.
Meanwhile both armies regroup and prepare. Likely the operations in Northern Gaza will continue, and IDF has indicated further goals. 10/
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While on this post we focus on ground domain, others are just as essential. In short; air, sea, information, cyber and space domain are all in play here. While ISR has superiority in most if not all above, Hamas has kept firing rockets into ISR and waged information warfare. 9/
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We are currently having technical issues with updating our map.
We've contacted our service provider about the problem and will continue to monitor the frontline situation regardless.
Sorry for the inconvenience.
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We thought a good, simple but informative map of the current situation was missing, so here you go.
According to multiple Russian sources, the head of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, died in a plane crash.
At the moment no visual proof of his body has emerged, but this claim is spread by both Russian official media and various channels close to Wagner.
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We had to cut the test short and transition back to CyclOSM due to the fear of demolishing our hosting limits during the daytime.
We didn't expect the number of traffic. Seeing it is very motivating! Despite the recent Twitter silence, we are still monitoring the war daily!
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@aleroi
@J_JHelin
We know that the Russians have filmed plenty of drone videos mainly from the same areas we're going to acquire satellite images of. Also, they have access to high-res satellite images as well, so they can internally check the same things we do - they don't need OSINT for it.
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Oh and Seychelles? You really gotta step up your game!
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Red Sea SITREP
Red Sea - SITREP
Thread on general situation in the Red Sea, threat assessment, latest developments and implications. 1/
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Tiedote 👉
Kartat ovat hyvä tapa tuottaa selkeää tietoa konflikteista. Olemme päättäneet julkaista Ukraina-kartan ohelle päivittyvän kartan Israelin maaoperaatiosta Gazaan.
Kartta keskittyy sotilaalliseen tilanteeseen, ei politiikkaan. 1/
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As the track marks left by IDF armoured brigade combat teams show, the second phase of the attack was opening a secondary direction. By this point the northern attacking force had advanced along the Salah Al-Deen rd. towards the centre of the City. 6/
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War in Gaza - update and short take into methods and tools by our
@TuukkaFalt
Lot of movement in Gaza lately. At
@Black_BirdGroup
we follow the war daily in our interactive situation map, where you can browse through frontlines and main events of the war here:
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Few words from other than ground domains: Information domain plays a major role in the Battle. There have been communications and internet cut-offs in the city. Use of artillery has been intense ever since the end of the ceasefire from both sides. 9/
⚡️ For the first time since ground operations began in Gaza, artillery forces are now operating inside Gaza.
Since the start of the war, the artillery forces have been operating from the Gaza Strip’s border, providing assisting fire to maneuvering forces and aiding in rescues.
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The person responsible for the Gaza-Israel map is a new member of our team,
@TuukkaFalt
. Tuukka has served in Lebanon in the UNIFIL operation, where he worked on the situational awareness of the Middle East region. He is a lieutenant in reserve (FDF). 3/
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Just as in the operations around Gaza City, IDF opened their attack with fast armoured movement. Utilization of less dense areas such as fields and major roads were used to hasten the movement. Armoured manoeuvres are clearly visible in the terrain, as seen in SAT images: 4/
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Image above is from 01DEC. This one is from 11DEC, showing large track marks from IDF armoured manoeuvres. Also seen here are IDF positions along the Salah Al Deen -road. As well as pillar of smoke rising from neighbourhood of Bani Suheila. 5/
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The humanitarian situation throughout Gaza continues to be difficult amidst the military operation. Negotiations of a ceasefire continue with third-party mediators. Fighting is ongoing. 10/
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Two weeks into the operations IDF has gained significant presence in the City. IDF units raid Hamas target locations such as leaders homes and weapons caches & manufacturing plants. Pockets of resistance keep causing casualties to the Israeli forces. Tunnel clearing begins. 8/
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Attack on Khan Yunis began on 01DEC. IDF launched somewhat similar ground invasion to that seen previously around Gaza City. 02DEC we saw first data points of IDF tanks and troops reaching the Salah Al-Deen road via Kissufim road, just north of the City 2/
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@Pouletvolant3
@Majakovsk73
@clement_molin
We have added some more fortifications to our map.
@clement_molin
work with Ukrainian fortifications was an source of inspiration for us.
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First indications of the attack arose 17NOV. Evacuation orders were given to citizens of Khan Yunis and Hamas key locations were told to be targets of the next IDF operation. It is possible that the ceasefire postponed these plans. 3/
#DEVELOPING
: Footage circulating of IDF tanks north of Khan Yunis in southern Gaza. Earlier, the IDF issued an evacuation order for much of northern Khan Yunis.
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By this point the fighting condenses into urban and dense neighbourhoods in and around Khan Yunis. Both Hamas and Islamic Jihad claim heavy casualties to IDF, who also communicate about loss of life on the ground. Media of intense close quarters combat in built areas emerges. 7/
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The rest of the team supports in updating the map.
The Gaza-Israel map works as a good OSINT-based information product for citizens, media and other parties. The map can be used for example for journalistic purposes, as long as you remember to credit our team when using it. 4/4
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The information on the new Gaza-Israel map is collected using mostly the same OSINT methods which have proven effective in producing a continuous situational map of the war in Ukraine since February 2022.
Naturally, we will continue our work with the Ukraine map as well. 2/
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War in Gaza - Interactive situation map here:
War in Gaza is developing. The IDF is moving to the next phase of operations after news of partial (read: operational) withdrawal from the North, the focus now shifts to Mid-Strip. Check out the situation map here:
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War in Gaza - Sitrep by our
@TuukkaFalt
Gaza sitrep - Hamad Town
03MAR IDF launched ground assault around Hamad Town, North of Khan Yunes, a short 🧵1/
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@megarboh
We wanted something that more clearly shows militarily significant geography and logistical routes. Mostly rivers, hills, roads and railways. We also wanted to highlight urban areas.
CyclOSM also shows cycle routes by default which is not great for our uses.
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Gaza-Israel-kartan vastuuhenkilönä toimii tiimimme uusi jäsen
@TuukkaFalt
. Tuukka on palvellut kriisinhallintatehtävissä Libanonissa UNIFIL-operaatiossa, jossa hän työskenteli Lähi-idän alueen tilannekuvan parissa. Reservin arvoltaan hän on luutnantti. 3/
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Muu tiimi tukee luonnollisesti kartan ja tilannekuvan ylläpitämisessä.
Kartta toimii Ukraina-karttamme tapaan hyvänä OSINT-pohjaisena tietotuotteena kansalaisille, medialle ja muille tahoille. Karttaa saa käyttää, kunhan muistaa kreditoida tiimimme käytön yhteydessä. 4/4
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@clement_molin
@Pouletvolant3
@Majakovsk73
We've seen them in Sentinel, but haven't had the time to draw them yet. There are only so many hours in a day.
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Gaza-Israel-kartan koostamisessa sovelletaan monilta osin samoja OSINT-metodeja, joiden avulla olemme tuottaneet jatkuvaa tilannekuvaa Ukrainasta helmikuusta 2022 alkaen.
Jatkamme luonnollisesti työtämme myös Ukraina-kartan kanssa. 2/
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@RagolSec
We've had issues with the map for a couple of days now, so this is unrelated issue to our knowledge.
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In English:
Announcement!
Maps are a good way to produce clear information about ongoing conflicts. We have decided to publish a map of the Israeli ground operation in Gaza alongside our Ukraine map.
The map focuses on the military situation, not politics. 1/
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