Why isn't @Strategy mining bitcoin or snapping up a miner like MARA? Financial engineering via debt/equity is clever, but mining could deliver steadier BTC-per-share growth: less dilution, more predictable hashrate. Hodl harder or hash harder, @saylor ? $BTC $MSTR

Same vibe as the 2022 capitulation — when we formed that cycle’s bottom, demand got really concentrated around the 16-20k. Looks like the same thing is playing out right now, but we still have a gap. The actual bottom could be in the 60-65k area (if we haven’t already made it)

Interesting

But if an unexpected trigger does appear—like a liquidity pressure forcing the Treasury companies (@Strategy and others) to liquidate—price would rapidly hunt the next major historical cost-basis cluster 60–65k. It would be the beginning of the capitulation we have so far avoided

We’re building support between 85-95k and yeah, it’s holding so far. But it’s a high bottom with a lot of baggage still hanging overhead. If Bitcoin can hang out above 80k while the Fed keeps cutting rates and turning the liquidity faucet back on, this could totally be the bottom

Fast-forward to today: there’s still a huge pile of coins underwater with cost basis above 110k. A ton of people (and companies) who bought the absolute top are sitting there:

The result was a rock-solid blue wall between 16k and 20k: overhead supply wiped clean, the market light and ready to rip higher throughout 2023:

Looking back to 2022, when the most recent capitulation occurred. After FTX collapsed, everyone who had FOMO’d in at 50–69k got obliterated

Has Bitcoin finally hit rock bottom in 2025? So let’s answer the million-dollar question by looking at the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) — it shows the price at which every existing coin last moved, i.e., the market’s true cost basis 🧵

My first post on Substack: Has Bitcoin Finally Hit Rock Bottom?

Just fired up this account to sling some bitcoin analysis, plan’s to mash up on-chain data with macroeconomic data to hunt for some insights